U.S. Unemployment During Recessions and Expansions

The US Unemployment rate reported this morning gained 50bps from the previous month, and was 40bps above the economist survey of 5.1%.  At 5.5%, unemployment sits at precisely the same level as the start of the December-07 expansion.  Excluding the current period, unemployment declines 2.77% on average during expansions, and gains 2.67% on average during recessions.  Below we highlight the unemployment rate and all recessions since 1948. 

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Comments

[al-shaf:]

Unemployment rate: The ultimate lagging indicator of a recession...

2008 Jun 06 01:30 PM

[Paul D. Cas...:]

Dec -07 expansion? Did you mean the Dec-01 expansion? According to the NBER the last recession ended Nov-01.

2008 Jun 06 03:51 PM

[CLH:]

Ticker--Good post.

2008 Jun 07 11:14 AM