Apple: Analysts Struggle to Say Something New About the 3G iPhone

There’s not a lot of hard Apple (AAPL) news for the Street to chew on ahead of Monday’s expected announcement of the 3G iPhone at next week’s Worldwide Developers Conference in San Francisco. That’s left the Street struggling to figure out something new to say about the yet-to-be-announced new phone that hasn’t already been said. Here’s a brief rundown on what some of the analysts are saying.

• RBC Capital’s Mike Abramsky says that checks with global carriers finds “strong pent up demand” for the next gen iPhone. He expects demos Monday of video chat, 3G Web browsing, location-based services, Exchange integration and new applications, including games. Abramsky affirms his forecast of 14 million units for calendar 2008, 24 million for 2009. He expects the company to sell 4-5 million of the new phones in the first 90 days. He also says the unit forecast could be way too low if the company provides an entry level model or cuts pricing.
• BMO Capital’s Keith Bachman says he does not expect a low-priced phone in the $200 range, since it would then be comparably priced to iPods, and “Apple is always careful about product/price differentiation.” He also thinks prices will move lower over the next few months, aided by carrier subsidies, but that “carrier price information will be limited” at Monday’s launch.
• Daniel Ernst, of Hudson Square Research, said possible announcements in addition to the 3G phone include a lower-price 2G phone, the launch of third-party apps, Mac updates and a preview of the next update to OSX. Ernst says it is possible the stock sells off if some expectations are not realized, but he advises buying on any weakness.
• Caris & Co.’s Shebly Seyrafi says he thinks the Street is looking for both a 3G iPhone and a subsidy arrangement with AT&T, and that there is risk of disappointment if Apple does not deliver on both fronts. That said, he also says investors should buy on any announcement-related weakness. Seyrafi also notes that AT&T had 3G service in 275 U.S. cities, going to 350 cities by year end. He sees the company selling 12 million iPhones in 2008, and 19 million next year.

Comments

[TanToday:]

Essentially the analysts are saying....

"We read the same blogs and discussion boards everyone else does...and we are POSITIVE, that we tell you in advance, AFTERWARDS, what everyone already knew days or weeks ago.."

Oh, our services are FAIRLY VALUED and please sign up for more, only $200 a month, and our NEWS is as fresh as any other rumor you can get for FREE with a few mouse clicks.

And IF the price seems to go UP, we will adjust our "targets" to match what anyone with a FREE charts program knows, and if down, we will be ON THE BALL there too, and when it becomes apparent to even the doddering fools out there, we WILL let you know for a FEE that the price trend is down!

Honestly, in two solid years watching the ANAL-ISTS on Apple, I have yet to see one BREAK news without cribbing from a blog or discussion site, BUT I have seen many "break NEWS" that was 100% wrong.

However, STAY TUNED everyone....they ARE the "EXPERTS" after all, are they not?!

2008 Jun 07 09:40 AM

[Thoughtful:]

Well and succinctly put, TanToday!

2008 Jun 07 10:22 AM

[mollytjm:]

we'll have a lot to talk about on Monday...until then, i think most of us, who are APPLE owners, just keep spinning our wheels, trying to make Monday come sooner. Apple may dip now and then, but it's going up and up and with the new store in China for the Olympics... whew!

2008 Jun 07 10:32 AM

[TanToday:]

Steve Jobs on his "product pre-advance marketing scheme for the iPhone"

In a company wide address to the employees...

"We didn't do ANYTHING.."

And they got the equivalent of $400 MILLION in free "Buzz Marketing" and eclipsed the Consumer Electronics show, with a market presence 100X that of Apple.

What OTHER firm gets ACRES of free print space, and dozens of articles written about something they have said NOTHING about publically in advance?

Put THAT into your valuation matrix's and crunch THOSE "numbers!"

2008 Jun 07 03:23 PM

[wallawallab...:]

At least you're not trying to crash the stock today, Eric.

Monday, maybe?

Where's Toni and Wu-turn?

2008 Jun 08 10:25 AM