Seeking Alpha
About this author: By this author:

It was not so long ago that I opined that unemployment in the US would start to surge. A few of you doubted me. The Friday Jobs Report is proof of concept. This problem is now front burner. So-called “rebates” are not jobs. They are also not wage and salary increases.

With respect to the Middle East, if hot-headed politicians cannot resolve their differences on a diplomatic level, and choose more war, the real problem will be worse than inflation, recession/depression and stock market crash. The average person, and tax-payer, will start to revolt.

The people have had enough. If allowed to fester and unemployment levels build to where I anticipate, and oil prices stay at the $138 level or higher, I believe the West is headed for broad general strikes and internal strife that will include domestic bombing and burning.

Interesting to me that the leadership that America needs, and is likely to get from Barack Obama, will now be headed for four or five months of intensely disrespectful dirty politics. The world, I think, is soon to witness a smear campaign in politics that will not make Americans look good in the eyes of others. Do they care? Probably not, but they should.

With regard to capital markets, investors who are locked by debt into long-term asset holdings are suffering and at risk of losing everything.

The opening on Monday should be interesting. Choose your poison.

Print this article with comments

This article has 33 comments:

  •  
    Bernanke's games to shore up his friends in banking while trashing the dollar can't be undone by simple grandstanding and hollow words. Only fools will listen to his mouth move, when in the background, he's taking trash mortgages as collateral for treasuries, which are then used by investment banks to go long commodities futures, causing rampant inflation. The self proclaimed expert on the Depression is recreating the conditions for a new one in real-time. Is anyone awake and paying attention? People must demand that the financial games end, losses be taken, and markets be allowed to reset prices. Let's get on with a recession to clean up the mess, and then become healthy again. If Ben keeps pulling tricks out of his hat, we'll all end up in a world of hurt. Someone in a position of power must pull the plug on this guy and act (not talk) to defend the dollar, or our way of life will change dramatically for the worse. Ben is killing us with inflation, and his jawboning hasn't done anything but accellerate the inflation! People smell blood in the water, and unless we get rid of this guy and replace him (and Paulson for that matter) with responsible leaders, we're doomed to suffer a serious meltdown. It's not if, it's when. WAKE UP PEOPLE! Start complaining and acting to force a change in direction.
    2008 Jun 08 03:38 AM | Link | Reply
  •  
    I agree with DougNMI, my view from the UK is that neither of your two parties has the gumption to sort out the mess that prevails.
    I, personally, am pleased that we now have a price for oil that will force major changes, this product is far too valuable to burn as fuel.
    2008 Jun 08 08:02 AM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Your articles seem to make logical conclusions until I read this statement," Interesting to me that the leadership that America needs, and is likely to get from Barack Obama" ON what past actions leadership in the Senate do you base the "leadership" statement on. Once again decisions made on appearance rather than substance.
    2008 Jun 08 08:55 AM | Link | Reply
  •  
    As a finance person,you have your finger on the problems in finance,but the root cause ,IMO ,are manifold.I disagree that any liberal can "fix" the economy,caused by too much govt spending and easy credit,all liberal ideas.The application of the Clean Water and Clean Air act will have us hungry and walking if the pedulum doesn't change direction.There will be several answers to the energy problem,as there is significant and substantial work being done in many universities ,from varied points of view.In the short term,a 1/8 point increase in the Fed Funds Rate would give credence and leadership to the Fed and not the whims of the Market.Also,a statement from the leadership of the House and Senate ,who jawboned for 2 years ,in a good economy , that there was a bad economy and finally got what they asked for,that"the economy is slow but sound" and bipartisan efforts will be made to control spending and eliminate the AMT,and re think the tax increases",would be a good start toward a better economy.
    If you want a better life,get another job,get educated ,and get going.
    2008 Jun 08 09:29 AM | Link | Reply
  •  
    NOTE WELL- most, if not all of our genius leaders, financial & political
    are multi-millionaires -, most receive a six figure pay check compliments of the us taxpayers - most will receive an annual six figure retirmen pay check - compliments of the tax payers - most will have all theirhealth care costs paid by the tax payers- how can the average us tax payers beat this stacked deck ??
    2008 Jun 08 09:55 AM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Your scenario is grim and I believe you have a chance of being correct. I strongly propose it’s because we lack leadership in the White House. Our president has allowed energy (lack of policy) to become a free for all. I believe he is unwilling to use the petroleum reserve as a discipline tool, because it might disturb the upward surge in oil prices. Aren't Cheney and Bush oilmen after all?

    If the president and vice president are energy experts, why don't we have an effective energy plan for the nation? Have these two lost touch with the very people they are to lead in good faith under the standards of the U.S. Constitution? It seems that they don't care. This is sad and it causes everyone to grab their nose because something stinks and it's not sour crude. This disappoints, weakens, discourages, demoralizes Americans and makes cynics everywhere prevail.

    This country needs decisive leadership, especially in energy national policy. We need to become energy independent via such things as nuclear power, electric cars, mass transit systems, wind gen, solar gen and opening (responsibly) untapped petroleum reserves in the US. This would create an explosion in jobs, tax income, optimism, cleaner environment, re-education, innovation... yes, something more positive than bombing North Korea and invading Iraq.

    It’s clear to me that we need to get out of Iraq ASAP. We’re bleeding our nation to death. Haven’t we recreated the 70's stagflation nightmare once again? Hard times lie ahead and in that scenario, U.S. citizens might do best if they have competent inspired leadership, which gives them hope for the future. We don’t need the constant dread of war, fear of becoming poorer, and revulsion and suspicion for illegal dealings in government and industry – aka Doom and Gloom. Fear is oppression.

    In summary, your grim scenario might not transpire if we get good leadership, such as a president with integrity. We need one who has a clear vision for this country’s energy future. At first his vision will provide national hope and direction. In time it’ll provide prosperity and that recovered prosperity will become the oil of good society.
    2008 Jun 08 10:10 AM | Link | Reply
  •  
    "Hot headed" political leaders? If you don't think Iran is a threat, think again.
    2008 Jun 08 10:11 AM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Inane article (but with a teaser headline worthy of network news). Obama can do for the US what Chavez is doing for Venezuela. They are kindred spirits. And statistically, the market is more likely to be up than down one day and five days after a day in which the DJIA drops 3% or more (see article by Bespoke Investment in today's Seeking Alpha).
    2008 Jun 08 10:30 AM | Link | Reply
  •  
    all the talk and empty sugestions are futile.
    what choice do we have in the upcoming election?
    people will vote for someone who can talk
    but sure cant do the walk.
    2008 Jun 08 10:39 AM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Star Wars had the dark side of the force.

    The USA has the short side of the market.

    Why not look there in times like these.

    We have a 30 stock short portfolio on out site. It is illustrative and not recomented. Seek the advice of your investment advisor. It has a start date and end date which we believee to be in ture with the business cycle in the USA.

    We believe that one will have to use shorts and longs in the comming years.
    2008 Jun 08 11:25 AM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Bill - I think the main point of your article, that "investors who are locked by debt into long-term asset holdings are suffering and at risk of losing everything" has been overlooked by some of the commenters above who tripped over the "political" asides.
    BTW, a visit to your website is worth its weight in gold... or is it oil?
    2008 Jun 08 11:46 AM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Regretfully, most Americans have there heads in the ground. They still assume a white knight will come along and allow them to continue their bad habits of ridiculous consumption and lack of savings. Maybe, a crash might wake people up to the problems, but I doubt it.
    2008 Jun 08 11:48 AM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Bill, I always make it a point to search for,
    and read your articles, because you speak from your heart and not your ego.

    I think we all need to take a deep breath and count to ten, because in IMHO, we are going to go through some very troubled times in the next few months. However, I do see light at the end of the tunnel.....and that light is solar energy. It looks like things have to get a lot worse before they get better........this is just something we will all have to get through.
    2008 Jun 08 11:50 AM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Most of these questions are mentioned by RON PAUL in his speeches
    and website videos. As I have said many times, the USA needs a
    viable THIRD Party! Voting between the Dems and Reps all the time
    is getting OLD. Same ole same ole with the problems always getting worse.
    2008 Jun 08 11:52 AM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Bill
    The peak oil scenarios I have read bring up the probability of energy hoarding by OPEC countries (and others). Hoarding is already on the table in Saudi Arabia. I suspect that eventually Russia and Venezuela will follow suit. When hoarding begins the world is going to fall into chaos in a hurry. Please "The Long Emergency" by James Howard Kunstler.
    2008 Jun 08 12:43 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    A major revamp 5to the appearance of the site, and TH has still not learned to present a user friendly interface!
    When I have to click twice to see the full article and comments, that just makes me wait twice for all those irrelevant Ads to fill up my screen and makes me angrier with stupid design.

    I agree it looks like BO is a smelly Marxist choice.
    2008 Jun 08 12:43 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Here's the only long term, perfect fix answer to America's problems guaranteed by God:
    " If My people who are called by My name will humble themselves, and pray and seek My face, and turn from their wicked ways, then I will hear from heaven, and will forgive their sin and heal their land. 2 Ch 7:14
    2008 Jun 08 12:53 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Here is the only fool proof, long term, guaranteed answer to our problems:
    If My people who are called by My name will vhumble themselves, and pray and seek My face, and turn from their wicked ways, wthen I will hear from heaven, and will forgive their sin and heal their land.
    2 Ch 7:14
    2008 Jun 08 12:56 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Bill, I read every article I find of yours as you seem to be one of the few that really understand what's happening in the markets. Thank you! As far as Obama being president, he is not the answer. He is charismatic and popular (so was Hitler, for awhile). He lacks any morality or ethics, and has no political record to speak of. What he will do in office is anyones guess. I'll give you one example. His career before politics was as a constitutional law professor. Before the signing of the Patriot Act he gave a beautiful speech about how the act would rape our constitution and destroy the rights of this countries' people, this speech by someone extremely learned in that area. He then followed that speech by signing that very same Patriot Act! As much as he says he's different, he is the flipside of the same rep/dem coin that has caused so much bad in this world by selling themselves to the Federal Reserve (central bankers) in the early 1900's. The real answer is RON PAUL and other reluctant politicians whose beliefs are in line with DR PAUL. Obama is only a continuation of what started in the Lincoln years and was accelerated with the Federal Reserve Act. He is bought and paid for by the central banking elite, and a continuation of the yoyo effect created as we go back and forth between rep and dem administrations. We may have Obama as president, and it may help the markets in the near term, but for our children and grandchildren he's nearly as horrible a choice as McCain, and in some ways, perhaps WORSE! Disclosure: wouldn't vote for McCain for any amount of money in the world!
    2008 Jun 08 01:34 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    If you think Obama will fix anything - your delusional. The Democratic Congress has done NOTHING about ANYTHING! Oh wait... They held talks on Scooter Libby and Major League Baseball. Yea, they're attending to our woes!

    If Obama gets elected (I'm living in Illinois and he's DONE NOTHING for this state) you can look forward to a politically correct administration accompanied with 12% un-employment, double digit interest rates and lot's of feel-good rhetoric 'bout "helping Americans".

    I think we already went down that road with Jimmy Carter. Remember him? You must 'cause he's STILL shooting his fat mouth off all over the world. Oh yea, his Middle-East policy unseated the Shaw of Iran so the religious zealots could (and still do) reign!!!

    It's gonna be a wonderful world - if just Obama can get elected!!!
    2008 Jun 08 02:49 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Oh... I forgot the quarter-mile gas lines and the 55 mph speed limit. I hope Obama has those remedies clearly in his racists associating sights. 'Course the South Side of Chicago is testiment to his prowess. Great schools, neighborhoods, medical care, loving neighbors and very low crime rates. Who could ask for more than the quality of life on the Southside? I can't wait...
    2008 Jun 08 02:56 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    NOTE: WHAT A BLIND PROFOUND STATEMENT YOU HAVE MADE WHEN YOU WRITE.
    "Interesting to me the leadership that America needs, and is likely to get from Barack Obama".......????
    AND ON what past actions leadership in the Senate do you base his "leadership" ability on??????
    I TOO disagree that any liberal can "fix" the economy,which has been caused by too much govt spending and easy credit,all liberal ideas(in the first place).
    OBAMA POLICY STATES WE AS AMERICANS MUST begin to ACCEPT A SMALLER SLICE OF THE PIE (BULL SHI#^$%@*
    WHAT A DEFEATEST MENTALITY!
    DRILL HERE DRILL NOW PAY LESS.WHY SHOULD any hard working American FAMILY GIVE UP EVEN ONE THIN SLICE OF THEIR PIE?
    THIS IS AMERICA WHERE ANY PERSON WHO DESIRES SUCCESS AND WORKS HARD CAN BAKE A PIE OF THEIR VERY OWN.
    WE ARE ON A FAST TRACK TO SOCIALISM AND ECONOMIC HELL BECAUSE OF LIBERALISM.
    WHY PULL THE LEVER FOR A FUTURE (OF NO RETURN) WITH OBAMAS NICKEL AND DIME POLICY FOR (CHANGE) ...AT A TIME WHEN WE NEED STRONG PROFITABLE DOLLARS.
    2008 Jun 08 04:05 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    I am quite sure there is no cure for the USA problems, which are the cumulative effects of decades of wrong policy that has favored the multi-nationals moving all their production offshore.
    2008 Jun 08 06:00 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    SORGMOT: Visit your website?! You gotta be kidding! You want me to follow your advice on on complex financial matters and you can't even SPELL?! Last five sentences: 5 spelling errors. Got your green card yet?
    2008 Jun 08 06:25 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    garyccb,

    Obama = double digit interest rates. Hmmm, sounds good to me. As of last Monday I am totally in cash, except for SGen and IMMG. The only thing I'm willing to bet right now is an effective treatment for cancer.
    2008 Jun 08 06:53 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Obama is a black preacher. This is all one can expect from him outside of paying back for 95% of black votes he got during the primaries.

    McCain is just outright dangerous: a warmongering scoundrel with no respect for the Constitution.
    2008 Jun 08 08:20 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Try getting out on the 'right' bed in the morning!!
    2008 Jun 08 09:58 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    God is a terrorist. You have to do what he says or he will burn your infidel ass for eternity. Using the threat of punishment in order to get others to do what you want is a characteristic of sex offenders, not a characteristics I would hope to find in an all knowing, all loving, omnipotent space fairy.

    You can pray to the magical sky wizards if it makes you feel better. But I seriously doubt they're going give you any help. Least of all, in the matters of feeding your greed.

    And for the record guys, if you take a look at the history of the stock market and which administration was in power, you'll see that the market seems to do better with democrats in power. So what does this have to do with the markets?

    NOTHING. Although, the last person to actually balance the budget was a democrat...oddly enough.

    Double digit interest rates? BRING 'EM ON! That's what we need to shore up the weak American Peso. The constant devaluing of the dollar is one of the main culprits to the commodities increase. The dollar has lost over 40% of it's value over the past 8 years. Time to start doing something about it.

    Neither Obama nor McCain are good choices, especially given the magnitude of the more serious problems we face. However, Mccain is the first candidate I can remember that actually scares me. I think he may actually be worse than Bush. But I digress. One of the bigger issues is how to prevent us from spending ourselves into oblivion. Mccain's inane ravings about staying in Iraq and pork isn't going to cut it (pork is less than 1% of the budget), and Barack "The Messiah" Obama has grand plans for a universal healthcare system that has no way to fund it. We can't even pay for what we have now.

    No matter who wins, we will probably lose though we will probably lose a little less with Obama. Either way, expect higher taxes.

    But don't blame me. I'm voting for Cthulu.

    ~X~
    2008 Jun 08 11:19 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    After reading these commenst, is it any wonder we are where he are right now? So we should not try to stop wasting our resources because we are Americans, Blacks are only good when they are in our sports teams, we want to be called a society but dont want to share the costs, libearls ( Reagan, Bush, Nixon) are the ones spending all the money, God is our salvation but keeps on sending all sorts of destruction, etc, etc, etc..
    2008 Jun 09 12:03 AM | Link | Reply
  •  
    The same plus more info as in:
    1) The Way the World Really Works - Alan B. Jones
    2) The Creature from Jekyll Island - G. Edward Griffin.

    prisonplanet.com


    Subject: Weekly Update
    Date: Sun, 8 Jun 2008 21:49:45 +0000

    05-08-08

    A Bilderberger Combo With Cheese, Please

    Manipulation of the markets has been confirmed within the public domain, but it is also important to consider the simple and astounding fact that it all occurs in the open light of day. Many of the topics we have covered in these updates could be front page news-worthy, but all we get from the controlled media are the political circus clowns. In the end, it all ultimately affects our investment in precious metals as well as our own well being - and yes, the future of the planet and mankind itself! Perhaps that's why a hundred or so of the world's most powerful and influential people, including media heads, princes and queens, heads of state, members of the US government including federal, state, intelligence, treasury, and military [in violation of The Logan Act - a federal offense] are meeting in secret in Chantilly, Virginia - and not a word about it in the main street press. We see the evil they do in broad daylight - can you imagine what they are planning for us in secret?

    prisonplanet.com/artic...

    What is the "truth"? It is what you chose to believe. I can provide facts, figures, articles, photos, videos, and Hegelian dialectic references but I would prefer instead that you investigate for yourself, ask your own questions, and determine whether you believe any of the information is the "truth" for you.

    If You're Asking Me When, I'll Say It Starts At The End

    Did you know there was a third building that collapsed on September 11, 2001 besides the two twin towers? A 47-story steel framed high rise known as WTC Building 7 [aka the Salamon Bldg] that was not hit by any plane collapsed into its own footprint at freefall speed of 6.5 seconds at appx 5:23 pm. Curiously, the 911 Commission Report didn't even mention the collapse of WTC7, as if it never happened. Of course, if you mention this to anyone you will be considered a tinfoil-hat-wearing-nu... I am rubbing my eyes now because amazingly, an actually serious article on the subject has made it to the Financial Times:

    What Happened to WTC Building 7?
    www.ft.com/cms/s/0/7d1...

    Seven years later and the National Institute of Science and Technology [NIST] still has no official explaination for the collapse of WTC 7. First they said it was weakened due to debris from the falling towers, but since even closer buildings were relatively unscathed and remained standing, they had to admit that wasn't it. NIST has since offered several other scenarios they have later been forced to recant. NIST now says they need until 2009 now to tell us what happened.

    Videos of the Week
    Even though WTC7 was not hit by any plane, and despite the fact that no steel framed high rise had ever collapsed due to fire in the history of mankind, the BBC not only announced the collapse of WTC7 before it actually happened, but they were also able to explain the reason why the building came down - it was "weakened" by the collapse of the towers - already diseminating the first "would you believe...?" offered by NIST.

    www.youtube.com/watch?...=

    Everyone on the face of the earth remembers exactly where they were and what they did on the day of 911, that is except for CNN anchorman Phil Hayton.

    www.youtube.com/watch?...

    Again, this is all part of a larger picture - the same picture that includes going to war under premeditatedly false information:

    "The release of a confessional book by former White House press spokesman Scott McClellan and the subsequent release of a long blocked report by the Senate Intelligence Committee make it clear that Bush, Cheney & Company deliberately lied to Congress and the American public back in 2002 and early 2003 about the threat posed by Saddam Hussein (there was none)."
    prisonplanet.com/artic...

    www.prisonplanet.com/a...

    Are you sensing a progressive pattern here? Whether we like it or not, dynamic forces in the world are reaching a pivot point where we may soon see dynamic changes from what we would consider a normal life. Technologies in energy and health already exist to truly enrich our lives but have been suppressed by the authorities for years. These authorities speak and markets tremble, oil rises $11 per barrel, people die. Will we let them determine our children's fate, when they already say there are too many of "us"?

    Below are two documentaries by Alex Jones. I would like to say again - I'm just asking questions, presenting information that it is only for your consideration. However, these documentaries do take on additional merit when you consider they were released before the recent revelations and confirmation that the Bush administration knew full well that Iraq was not a threat. It is also interesting to note that no one has stepped forward to deny Jone's accusations, nor sue him for slander or defamation. Watch if you think you can handle the disturbing possibility that it is all too possible or true. I don't need to know if you agree or not - that is up to you.

    EndGame - Blueprint for Global Enslavement - 2007
    video.google.com/video...=#

    TerrorStorm - 2006
    video.google.com/video...

    Ask questions, investigate, share these videos, join a group, open discussions.
    2008 Jun 09 01:30 AM | Link | Reply
  •  
    BHAKTA is right. The Superbowl is over. Management won. Labor lost.
    Management is better equipped for survival because they own the means of production. And can erase competition because they own the central bankers, and obviously the politicians. Except for the politics in the authors article, I think he's right on. And... "Management" was a good word to start my comment with, but is probably more convenient
    than accurate in describing the group with the most wealth, power, and control, the second time it's used.
    2008 Jun 09 08:58 AM | Link | Reply
  •  
    The writer of the article and most of the comments just sound as a bunch of bitter and defeated americans bitching about everything. And some of you do not even sound as americans but as a bunch of terrorists trying to scare the nation... The end of the world will come to those who believe on it...
    2008 Jun 09 09:24 PM | Link | Reply
  •  
    Obama. You gotta be kidding. 20 yrs. of a preacher teaching him that America is the devil!! This guy is a cleverly disgusied nut case. His wife said it best. "I have never been proud of America, until now".
    2008 Jun 10 01:54 PM | Link | Reply