It was not so long ago that I opined that unemployment in the US would start to surge. A few of you doubted me. The Friday Jobs Report is proof of concept. This problem is now front burner. So-called “rebates” are not jobs. They are also not wage and salary increases.
With respect to the Middle East, if hot-headed politicians cannot resolve their differences on a diplomatic level, and choose more war, the real problem will be worse than inflation, recession/depression and stock market crash. The average person, and tax-payer, will start to revolt.
The people have had enough. If allowed to fester and unemployment levels build to where I anticipate, and oil prices stay at the $138 level or higher, I believe the West is headed for broad general strikes and internal strife that will include domestic bombing and burning.
Interesting to me that the leadership that America needs, and is likely to get from Barack Obama, will now be headed for four or five months of intensely disrespectful dirty politics. The world, I think, is soon to witness a smear campaign in politics that will not make Americans look good in the eyes of others. Do they care? Probably not, but they should.
With regard to capital markets, investors who are locked by debt into long-term asset holdings are suffering and at risk of losing everything.
The opening on Monday should be interesting. Choose your poison.