Should Apple Investors Focus on 3G iPhone or WWDC Message?

Will the economy and 3G distract Apple (AAPL) investors from the message of the WWDC? Come Monday morning, Steve Jobs will take the stage and address developers and the media. Expectations are high that a 3G iPhone will be introduced. Investors will have one eye on live blog updates of the conference, and the other eye on deteriorating markets. This will make for a volatile mix.

Should investors be focused on the 3G iPhone, or should they be focused on the direction Apple is going with their entire platform? I think the latter.

From a product positioning point of view, Apple needs to emphasize the SDK, what developers can do with it, and the App store. These points have far more gravitas and are far more importance for Apple’s future than a faster phone. The most compelling thing about a new 3G iPhone is not the speed, but hardware integration with software, like GPS. Imaging the social networking killer apps that could dominate the market, both consumer and commercial.

Another important thing Apple needs to do at WWDC is communicate their enterprise message. Apple has an unprecedented opportunity to expand OS X’s enterprise presence through the iPhone, and make Macs a line item on corporate buyer’s sheets. If they intro the 3G, their message will be diluted, and they can’t afford that. The 3G intro should be a separate event to avoid squandering this great opportunity.

Apple needs to tell a compelling story about security, performance and stability, and how they’ll make the new OS X 10.6 (Snow Leopard) easy to manage on the desktop and integrate in the data center. Essentially, they need to make OS X attractive to the enterprise.

Will a message like this fly with investors, while the the economy is looming large, and expectations are so firmly fixed on the 3G iPhone? And if their expectations are dashed, with muted mention of a 3G iPhone, they are going to jump ship and protect their capital.

Disclosure: Author holds a long position in AAPL

Comments

[Thoughtful:]

What Zach "erntheburn" Bass fails to disclose is that he is a swing and day Apple trader. Expect more attempts at market-moving Apple "headlines" from this source.

Well, Zach (Ernie), after your article, your disclosure statement says, "Disclosure: Author has a long position in AAPL", then in replies to your previous article you say you're now all in cash??

I wonder if actively attempting to crank out these "fear and trembling" headlines for Seeking Alpha would benefit you in any personal way?

On second thought, I don't think we need to worry that some career Java programmer like Ernie can actually move Apple one way or the other with his scary headlines followed by his positive "re-analysis.

Hard to believe someone who encourages you to follow his every move, and who invents a persona for himself (Search Zachary Bass on Wikipedia) from some old 1971 movie, is such an expert. Is there anyplace on the web that you haven't been trying to influence Apple equities in the last couple months?

2008 Jun 08 01:47 PM

[User 175563:]

For someone with the handle "Thoughtful" you seem more bent on ad hominem attacks rather than thoughtfully addressing the issues the article raises.

With regard to the Long/No Position, SeekingAlpha published my articles out of date sequence. On Thursday I was long, on Friday I went all cash. A reasonable and "thoughtful" position to take. The best place to get my current position is on my blog (www.zachbass.com) or Twitter feed (www.twitter.com/zachba...).

Also you would do well to get your facts straight on my background.

2008 Jun 08 03:08 PM

[Thoughtful:]

Ad Hominem = attacking an opponent’s motives or character rather than the policy or position they maintain. Yes, I think that my responses to your articles fit that category nicely. I think your motives are definitely questionable.

As for your background:
digg.com/users/erntheb...
erntheburn.stumbleupon.../
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/...
messages.finance.yahoo... (search for erntheburn)
www.facebook.com/srch....
www.zacharybass.com/20...

People can judge for themselves.

2008 Jun 08 05:36 PM

[Thoughtful:]

Oops, there goes the stumbleupon link. You're quick, Ernie! Faster than the other day when you took down your Javachief.com and Jelmor.com sites

2008 Jun 08 06:15 PM

[User 175563:]

There are no secrets here "Thoughtful," I really get a kick out of your handle by the way. If you visit my about page on my blog, it tells the whole story about who I am and why I use the handle Zach Bass, please visit it here: www.zacharybass.com/ab...

Also, Javachief.com and Jelmor.com will be back in service as soon as I get the server back from Apple, I'm having the logic board replaced. Hopefully tonight, but more likely tomorrow. I'm waiting for a call from the Genius Bar. But thanks for visiting all my work, I never knew you were such a fan.

2008 Jun 08 06:54 PM

[ThinkFirst:]

Why does Seeking Alpha allow such self-serving drivel to be published? I wish they would exercise some quality control.

2008 Jun 08 08:09 PM

[Thoughtful:]

Not a fan....More like a sheepdog. Don't like critters who skulk, hide, are fond of causing stampedes, and have a taste for lamb chops.

2008 Jun 08 09:01 PM

[ThinkFirst:]

Ernie Varitimos calls himself "Chief Bloviator of Investor in the Wilderness."

The definition of the word "bloviator" is "one who discourses at length in a pompous or boastful manner."

Is this hilarious or what? This guy is calling himself a pompous blowhard.

2008 Jun 08 10:14 PM

[Shorting Sh...:]

Its obvious to people who follow AAPL that short term traders and hedge funds will focus on the 3G phone, whereas long term true investors will focus on the message.
With a few exceptions, WWDC is not primarily a hardware showcase forum. It is a software showcase and software is what really differentiates Apple from the competition.

2008 Jun 09 11:43 AM