Lehman: Oh Brother!

I’ve decided to stay out of the Lehman Brothers (LEH) discussion … until now. I think they should rename the firm “Oh Brother!” As in what you might say when you get disgusted.

I am not going to get into the absurdity of the Einhorn vs. Lehman or Bloggers vs. Gasparino situations. I think these debates speak for themselves. Honesty has a way of becoming apparent. Honest questions as well as honest answers. In my opinion, there have been a lot more honest questions than honest answers.

Personally, I struggle severely with money center and investment bank financial statements - I call it Financial Fudge. Simply put - I have no faith in the integrity of their numbers - whether that means revenues, margins or net income or the related desires to manipulate the balance sheet via marking methods. Part of this lack of trust comes from my self-recognition that I don’t understand many of the products that they are selling (derivatives and the like).

But I am not alone even though I may be one of the few that is not embarrassed to admit that I don’t get it.   And this is where it gets scary - it is clear that the board and management team did not and does not understand it as well as they may have thought when things were going well. 

As for the analysts - those supposed “experts” in understanding all this crap and being able to create reasonably accurate forecasts of revenues…they showed they didn’t understand very much over the past few years and they showed they didn’t understand Lehman’s situation today. Average earnings estimates polled by Thomson Reuters was a loss of 22 cents / share with the lowest estimate at $1.28/sh. How good is that? Do you really believe they understand this business when the real loss is $5.14/per share?  So  - the average investor who might use fundamental analysis and valuation metrics based upon questionable accounting and hopelessly inaccurate analyst estimates…well they are relying very flawed information.  Oh Brother!

Comments

[williambanzai7:]

After they are finished looking at AIG and Sullivan the SEC should turn its attention to Lehman. It is simply unbelievable that these people are unable to comprehend the depth of their problems given current market conditions. Their self serving statements are either delusional, reckless or fraudulent. In Lehman's case the "shorts" knew what management preferred to sweep under the carpet.

2008 Jun 10 02:49 AM

[venividivici:]

Spot on Mike. These companies, the analysts that cover them and the gasbag commentators that pump them have no credibility whatsoever.

2008 Jun 10 06:22 AM

[jackooo:]

SEC is useless. No guts. Who pays their salaries? The companies they are suppose to monitor?

2008 Jun 10 12:55 PM

[pavlov:]

What they have done in the last week is totally illegal.
You cannot leak out information!
Buying back their own stock just before a financing!
JAIL is too good for them!

2008 Jun 10 01:38 PM