Tuesday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets

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Many investors try, especially now, to find some comparable historical period to compare today’s action. If we’re in a true recession then we might look at the 1974 period which is when I started in the business. If it resembles today’s market in any way, it might be the October 1973 bear market rally.



Every market has its own unique signature and issues. But, I remember that recession well. If you think we have problems in the US today, that period was difficult with inflation building, war and the president’s resignation. The important thing is we got thruogh it.

That will do it for today. Clearly market internals don’t reflect strength but I was impressed by the furious comeback in the NASDAQ into the close.

Let’s see what happens next. Have a pleasant day.

Disclaimer: The ETF Digest maintains positions in TLT and TBT.

Comments

[zenalgorithm:]

VIX is rearing its head again...watch out below...

2008 Jun 10 09:25 AM

[specks:]

There were only 2 things I saw with some positive looking momentum. First was the amex materials and the 2nd was the $.
That's pretty scary. When everything is moving down except the dollar, and the dollar has already been highly deflated in value through Fed action, then it looks to me as though we are truly in a deflationary period. I think they call this stagflation, do they not?

2008 Jun 10 10:13 AM

[Rance Taylor:]

How about adding/commenting on graph of DJP and/or RJI ?
Thanks

2008 Jun 10 10:18 AM

[specks:]

Those were not on my page. I had several blanks. Anyway, I looked both up and note MACD looks okay on daily but not weekly. Also, if you check CCI, it is pretty much at the top. This is not to say they cannot go higher but in this market I tend to go with the TREND!
Good luck.

2008 Jun 10 10:38 AM

[User 148223:]

Beautiful work! Your work (and humor) is much appreciated.

2008 Jun 10 11:13 AM