An Overview of the Global Shipping Industry

Given the uncertainty of the domestic economy, one industry worth considering investing in is commercial shipping. Shipping is the primary means of international transportation of any essential raw material or finished good. Approximately 80% of the cargo and almost 100% of hydrocarbons moved today is by water. The global commercial shipping industry can be classified into the following categories: 

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When selecting companies to invest in, one needs to be conscious of both demand and supply drivers. Demand drivers look at the availability and need for the cargo being transported while supply drivers look at the ability of ship builders to construct ships for commercial use.  

The two primary drivers of demand are trade growth and trade patterns. 

Trade Growth (Demand Driver)

1. World GDP growth – the higher the level of economic activity the greater the demand for raw materials to trade
2. Oil demand and supply – the higher the demand and supply of oil, the greater the need for tankers to transport
3. Oil inventory levels – the amount of oil held in storage to meet future requirements has an impact on the demand for oil tankers in the future; seasonality often plays a critical role
4. Steel production – Since iron ore and coal represent about 42% of global dry bulk trade, steel production is a significant factor in determining the demand for dry bulk carriers 

Trade Pattern (Demand Driver)

1. Refinery locations – varying levels of capacity and the sophistication of refineries’ processing capabilities affect the oil markets
2. Sourcing – The distance between the place of origin and place of destination affects tonnage-mile demand for vessels
3. Regional grain production – global grain trade depends on harvest of a particular year which, can significantly affect supply of cargo to transport

The two primary drivers of supply are ordering and scrapping 

Ordering (Supply Driver)

1. Ship building capacity – ship builders generally cannot cope with sudden increases in demand due to a time constraint to making ships; the current backlog of global shipyards reach out as far as the mid 2010’s
2. Ship building prices – Lower prices can lead to increased orders thereby increasing the total tonnage available in the market

Scrapping (Supply Driver)

1. Economic life – The higher the age of the fleet the higher the expected scrapping and lower the net fleet growth; the current average age of global shipping fleet is 19 years
2. Regulations – Regulations on age and safety set by the International Maritime Organization and the EU can place restrictions on the particular kinds of vessels and fleets

Current Outlook Attractive

The demand for shipping capacity has been soaring for years thanks to places like China, India and the Middle East for their increasing needs and participation in global trade; this has pushed freight rates and operator profits up significantly. Luckily, supply of raw materials has kept in pace with demand, and thus has not constrained shipping activity. In addition, fuel costs are promoting a growing number of shippers to consider ocean versus other forms of transport.  

A particularly attractive feature of shipping companies is that dividends are generally high and can range anywhere from 5-15% depending on the company; this can add significant bottom-line returns for your portfolio, even if the stock or market underperforms.  

Disclosure: the author has a long position in DRYS.

Comments

[mariposa:]

Shipping has been one of my best decisions to invest in. Best by far was Diana, which was only 2nd one. Earliest was TNP, and that has been good with div. rein. Also long SFL, EGLE. I even consider Trinity Industries TRN somewhat related, and of course, rails like CNI and NSC for transport to the ships, intermodal. Especially CNI's new port terminal.

Another factor is most shippers pay good dividends.

The one I have been concerned about is SSW. Have considered giving up on this one, so will be looking for further information.

Another concern, very long term, is someday serious questions will be asked about the extra cost of moving things around. In the mean time, enjoy the investing sweet spot. One thing that impressed me about Eagle, is they seem positioned to help move things coastally in Asia. They also have onboard loading and loading equipment and specialize in one medium-sized dry cargo ship. They spent some recent years building to this position, and now seem ready to "sail."

2008 Jun 10 08:47 AM

[OJO Zafado:]

The ALEX is indeed a shipping company, but. It is about 35-40% a real estate developer in both Hawai'i and the West coast. They are very focused on the Hawaii-Mainland and inter-island trade, along with a position in the US West Coast-China trade. They also have a large agriculture business growing subsidised sugar mostly on Maui and working in a co-operative arangement with the privately held Robinson Family sugar cane production on KAUAI. Most of the combined production goes to the local mills and then on to Crocket, CA for final processing. The land and water resources of this part of the company are not fully reflected in the stock price. Fuel costs are killing the profits in the Jones Act protected Island trade. Probably still over valued at $47 but if it slips below $41 it will be worth talking a partial position or few.

2008 Jun 10 09:17 AM

[oilsands:]

Thanks for the breakout by focus. What about the other shipping stocks? You list factors for evaluating need, etc, but give no indication of where such data is located, or if it exists. I would imagine a lot of compiling is required. Does anyone do this?

You failed to mention DRYS venture into oil drillling platforms.

2008 Jun 10 11:57 AM

[oilsands:]

Hydrocarbons are moved in great volume by pipeline, esp. from Canada and Mexico to the US; however, the vast bulk of the transport is by ship. Maybe someone knows what the true per centage is.

2008 Jun 10 12:01 PM

[d_teller:]

There's a number of shippers of dry bulk to add:

Genco (GNK), compares with EGLE & DSX

Paragon (PRGN) a smaller, newbie; Starbulk (SBLK) and Oceanfreight (OCNF), recently listed and paying nice dividends...all down somewhat today.

ALEX' share price also reflects its land holdings, valued at 1975 dollars/acre, and worth a lot more, but shipping costs have hammered this security...not yet low enough for me to purchase.

Finally, a limited (PTP) partnership of barges, doing well along the U.S. coast = U.S. Shipping Partners (USS)...but not for a shelterd account.

2008 Jun 10 07:54 PM

[blink0404:]

An industry expert with a shipping portfolio talks about DRYS and Eagle Bulk.
Worth the listen if you're interested in this industry and these stocks.

Check out this podcast on greenfaucet.
greenfaucet.com/ (It's "Hanlon on shipping" down at the bottom of this homepage)

Anyone else have any other good information on the industry?


On Jun 10 07:54 PM d_teller wrote:

> There's a number of shippers of dry bulk to add:
>
> Genco (GNK), compares with EGLE & DSX
>
> Paragon (PRGN) a smaller, newbie; Starbulk (SBLK) and Oceanfreight
> (OCNF), recently listed and paying nice dividends...all down somewhat
> today.
>
> ALEX' share price also reflects its land holdings, valued at 1975
> dollars/acre, and worth a lot more, but shipping costs have hammered
> this security...not yet low enough for me to purchase.
>
> Finally, a limited (PTP) partnership of barges, doing well along
> the U.S. coast = U.S. Shipping Partners (USS)...but not for a shelterd
> account.

2008 Jun 11 07:12 PM

[Jim Hawthorne:]

Keep a close eye on the BDIndex... It will help you in your timing just as it has mine!
www.investmenttools.co...

2008 Jun 12 12:04 AM

[User 209150:]

What a difference a day makes. During the past several weeks it was hard to keep up with the surge in shipping stocks. Today, it appears from the crash like quotes that the shipping business is going out of business.

2008 Jun 12 11:22 AM

[slickship:]

I'm hearing Maritime may bid for Diana Shipping Lines with stock and cash. Has anyone heard this? May be time to reload?

2008 Jun 19 10:40 AM

[Carl Martin:]

The best place for shipping news, facts and opinions is at - shipping.capitallink.c... - That's right, there are two dots in that address.

2008 Jun 19 10:58 AM

[Carl Martin:]

sorry - typo - try - shipping.capitallink.c...

2008 Jun 19 11:01 AM

[Carl Martin:]

why doesn't this work? after shipping.capitallink comes dot com.

2008 Jun 19 11:03 AM

[guliamo:]

Carl... the link to your website is inaccessible.. FYI


On Jun 19 11:03 AM carl martin wrote:

> why doesn't this work? after shipping.capitallink comes dot com.

2008 Jun 27 07:01 AM