UBS Analyst: Activision Unlikely to Approach Take-Two

Video game maker Activision Inc. (ATVI) on Monday said it has filed a definitive proxy statement relating to its proposed $9.8 billion merger with Vivendi Games Inc. A special meeting of Activision stockholders will be held on July 8 to approve the transaction.

Activision also has been mentioned as a possible buyer for rival game maker Take-Two Interactive Software Inc. (TTWO), which is being pursued by Electronic Arts Inc. (ERTS). Activision, of course, still has its hands full completing the Vivendi Games merger. But with Take-Two so far being able to drag out the process with Electronic Arts and the government not yet signing off on the regulatory aspects of the deal, there's little question an acquisition of Take-Two won't be completed by July 8.

In a research report put out on Monday, UBS analyst Benjamin Schachter discounts the possibility of Activision going after Take-Two. Schachter notes that despite "some interesting synergies between the companies," and the strength in Take-Two's franchises -- most notably "Grand Theft Auto" -- he's not sure Activision would have an interest in Take-Two's sports business, which has underperformed. Nor would Activision have much use for Take-Two's casual or distribution businesses, he argues, also pointing out that there remains some uncertainty about the contract of "GTA" developer RockStar, whose contract expires early next year.

Lack of an alternative buyer is one reason why analysts expect Electronic Arts will be cautious about raising its current $25.74 a share, $2 billion offer for Take-Two. But should a strategic buyer become involved, or if Take-Two can drag a media company like Time-Warner Inc. (TWX) or News Corp. (NWS) into the fray, it will force EA to become more aggressive.

Comments

[gaucho420]

Forbes this weekend suggested UBISoft is currently looking at a merger with TTWO. Positives for this are complimentary games, the fact that both companies have licensed their games for movies (Bioschock, Prince of Persia), UBISoft has stated they would like to get into sports (TTWO has a sports stable of games) as well as the previously stated desire of UBISoft to have franchise games. TTWO has the biggest franchise of them all in GTA, while Bioshock looks to be a potential big franchise as well.

Negatives to this merger would be that UBISoft cannot buy out TTWO due to a lack of cash, and that EA actually owns 16% of UBISoft.

I would prefer this route for TTWO rather than the buyout as EA is inept for many differerent reasons, most of which its games are mediocre (at best), the offer price severely undercuts TTWO's true value and quite frankly, I don't care what Wall Street thinks, as most of them had TTWO rated a hold or sell prior to this and well, they were dead wrong then and they continue to be dead wrong on the value of the company now.

Let's hope UBISoft and TTWO can pull it together, as that company, with its talent and stable of games, would definitely challenge ATVI and EA in time. The games offered by those two have better stories, longer replay value and in the end, more interest and innovation than EA's tired sports and movie licenses or ATVI's Guitar Hero (how much longer can the popularity of this TRULY LAST?...I have GH and Rock Band...not too sure I need any more editions of either) or COD (its going to get old sooner rather than later and I love COD4...but every idea has its limits).

In the end, the future blockbuster franchises are clearly more prevalent with TTWO and UBISoft than the other two and these will be the games customers buy in the future. Guitar Hero is old, Rock Band's been done...I simply see a better future with more GTA's, more Bioschocks, Assassin's Creed, Rainbow Six, Tom Clancy's, Mafia's etc...than the latest Harry Potter Game, COD 35 or anything the other two have.

[speculawyer]

>>>also pointing out that there remains some uncertainty about the contract of "GTA" developer RockStar, whose contract expires early next year.<<<
This is simply not true. Although there are some contracts for a few high level R* execs, the 'developer' Rockstar does not have a contract with TTWO . . . they are fully owned by TTWO.