After Today's Rally, I'm Bearish On Michael Kors For The Short Term

| About: Michael Kors (KORS)

Shares of luxury retailer Michael Kors (NYSE:KORS) rose 16.5% after the company reported first quarter earnings and impressive guidance for the remainder of fiscal 2013. The company, which went public in December 2011, is now trading close to all time highs after beating on both revenue and earnings per share in the quarter.

In Michael Kors' first quarter, revenue rose 71% to $414.94 million. This far eclipsed analysts' target of $367.96 million. Retail net sales increased 76% to $215 million. Wholesale net sales increased 66% to $182.4 million. Licensing revenue increased 61% to $17.5 million in the quarter. Michael Kors' gross profit margins remain strong at 60.5%, which actually increased from 56.3% in last year's first quarter. Net income in the quarter was $68.6 million, representing earnings per share of $0.34. Analysts were looking for earnings per share of $0.20.

The company's retail segment remains strong, representing solid sales at stores open more than a year and an increasing store count. Comparable same store sales increased 37.3% in the second quarter. Same store sales increased 38.4% in North America and 24.2% in Europe.

At the end of the first quarter, Michael Kors operated 253 retail stores, with an additional 68 licensed stores. For the same period last year, the company owned 177 retail stores. Here is a look at the company's international store base:

· Canada (21)

· England (3)

· France (1)

· Germany (2)

· Hong Kong (1)

· Italy (1)

· Japan (2)

· Korea (1)

· Macau (1)

· Malaysia (1)

· Mexico (1)

· Middle East - United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Bahrain (8)

· Netherlands (1)

· Phillippines (3)

· Russia (1)

· Singapore (1)

· Spain (1)

· Turkey (2)

· West Indies (2)

The company went public in December, with 47.2 million shares priced at $20. On its first day of trading, shares of Michael Kors closed at $24.20. Large owners of Michael Kors stock include Fidelity (8%), T.Rowe Price (5.7%), and the Ontario Teacher's Pension Plan (5.5%). In March, the company sold an additional 25 million shares in a secondary offering at $47 each.

In the second quarter, analysts forecast that the company will report revenues of $422.22 million and earnings per share of $0.28. Michael Kors projects revenues of $490-$500 million for the second quarter, and is guiding for earnings per share of $0.33 to $0.35. Both of these targets far exceed analysts' targets on the low end.

For fiscal 2013, analysts on Yahoo Finance see the company reporting earnings per share of $1.12 on revenues of $1.79 billion. The following year, analysts see earnings per share of $1.40 from $2.26 billion in revenue. For this fiscal year, Michael Kors issued guidance of $1.8 to $1.9 billion in revenue. Earnings per share are expected to come in at $1.32 to $1.34 for the full year.

Shares of Michael Kors now trade at 38 times this fiscal year's earnings per share mid range. This seems like a high multiple, even for a growing luxury retailer. I think Michael Kors is a good long term play, but cannot recommend shares at this level. Investors who bought in on the IPO are the ones who have profited, and short term traders have likely missed out on potential gains.

Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.