What's Keeping the Dollar Down? 19 comments
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The dollar is first and foremost a political instrument. Part of its historic appeal has been its stability, and its link to so many elements of world trade and dollar contracts. While it is not gold-backed, the dollar can be used to purchase oil which allows people to look beyond our fiscal management (including both our growing current account deficit, and our GAAP deficit). It is a reason to hold dollar reserves.
In spite of the existing oil backing, there has been a steady movement for dollar holders to diversify away from the dollar, and since its formation in 1999, the Euro has moved from zero to nearly 27% of global reserves. There is an increasing global movement to hold a “basket of currencies” rather than just the dollar.
The view of the dollar is changing as countries like Iraq shift off the dollar and onto the Euro (early 2000 period, reversed after we invaded), and now Iran shifts off the dollar with its new Oil Bourse and utilizes other currencies. With the GCC now creating its own new currency in the next few years for the Gulf States, I believe that another round of uncertainty will enter the market and there will be greater attention paid to our current account deficit, and our GAAP deficit in the future.
The Causes of Uncertainty
The U.S. public is often mislead about our country’s financial condition, and does not fully understand the scope of the dollar’s problems because of the way it is presented by politicians.
Using the period from 2000 to 2006, the total liabilities created by the Federal Government for unfunded programs and the National Debt grew from $20 trillion to $50 trillion. This excludes State and local debt, and consumer debt. When these liability items are added together, they come close to equaling the household net worth of all Americans as of late 2007 or early 2008. We are technically bankrupt according to Government provided reports, but few know it.
Is it a coincidence that our liquidity crisis came about at the same time? The number for household worth and consumer debt are provided by the Fed, and the numbers for the Federal Liability are provided by the Comptroller General of the United States. While the famous Comptroller General (David Walker) has left Government recently (like so many of the best and brightest), he is now the CEO of the Peter G. Peterson Foundation and continues to carry forward the message that the U.S. has to stabilize its finances; as a banker, I would have to agree.
Based on the 2006 numbers that he prepared, our liabilities were equal to 95% of assets. We continue to expand our liabilities faster than our assets. If we were a person, we would be a subprime borrower with a declining FICO score. I think this is the way we are increasingly perceived in the international community. Moody’s put out information in January that we have our triple AAA rating at risk in the future if we do not get our spending impulses under control.
Our Current Position
At the end of 2008, our liabilities as a country will likely exceed our assets. Our SS and Medicare programs are in serious jeopardy, with the Medicare program has entered “warning status”. When you look at the financial fundamentals, while the Fed has indicated that they would like to see a strong dollar, the Fed can’t do that in an environment where the fiscal policy of the country is in chaos and heading in the opposite direction.
It is unfortunate that while the net worth of the country is dropping, the Fed is setting on the sidelines and not making a big deal of the need for fiscal policy to support monetary policy with Congress. We won’t fix the deep problems with the dollar with just PR, and monetary policy and some fresh press releases.
Fundamentals are catching up with us. We need a hero…
Maybe it is the Peter G. Peterson Foundation and David Walker.
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This article has 19 comments:
and to the above comment......after the US goes bankrupt officially....Young children will be pledging allegance to the flag of the united corporation. If i don't move to canada i'll probably live in city of Goldman Sachs just south of Tata motors tollroad.
Yadda, yadda... just like all these people:
stuffwhitepeoplelike.c.../
Would you lend money to a chronically broke friend?
Don't be fooled by the dollar's recent rally. It's ridiculous to think that talking the dollar up, as Bernanke and Paulson have attempted to do, will make a lasting difference. Until we make sweeping changes to government and economy, the currency will remain under pressure.
I think it has to be the recognition that even while hemorrhaging value on its fiscal deathbed, this nation still has enormous capability and could -- even now -- wake up and make changes to address the dire situation at hand.
It wouldn't take all that long or draconian measures -- witness the fiscal improvement that occurred during the Clinton years (this is not an endorsement of Clinton, merely a recognition that things changed on the fiscal front during his time in office). I suspect that over 4-6 years we could reverse things and begin to put value back into the dollar.
If we were to (I'm going into fantasy-land now, buckle up) do things like pass a balanced budget amendment and replace the existing special-interest-desig... tax system with a flat tax, eliminating ALL deductions and exemptions (save perhaps starting to tax income only above a reasonable living income has been achieved), then we could probably bounce back in less than 4 years.
It is possibilities like THAT which keep the dollar as high as it is.
Outside observers probably cannot imagine that we would allow ourselves to go bankrupt by our own actions, when it would be so easy to mend our ways. More the fools, they.
Similarly, like a business, there is emerging competition for reserves as indicated by the increase in holdings of the Euro.
Like a business with a crumbling monopoly, it takes some very clever action to hold on to some of what you had.
Kotika98: That's not true. The value of the dollar has fluctuated quite a bit since being decoupled. It has had periods of large gains as well as fall-offs. However, it is the nature of fiat currency to devalue over time.
Great nations rise and fall, and there has never been one who hasn't fallen at some point. But there is a difference between a controlled fall (like the British Empire) and a catastrophic collapse. We are actually in the process of decline as our expenses at maintaining our "empire" are far exceeding our ability to pay them. As the author points out, our situation gets worse every year we don't enforce fiscal responsibility. We can either choose a gradual contraction or a spontaneous collapse. I prefer the former.
Surgcare: I'm not sure where you're getting your information, but both sides have more than their share of the blame in this. Keep in mind that under a republican administration, we have had the largest increase in government spending as well as the largest deficits, and a crumbling economy.
Here is another thing to keep in mind: Capitalism only works if people have money. Right now, 90% of the wealth in the country is controlled by 10% of the population. That's a pretty big disparity. Left completely unchecked, and you end up something like the French Revolution.
Companies have not been run out of America. They have willingly left in search of cheaper materials, cheaper labor, and less oversight. All those safety standards that a lot of people take for granted now are a result of factory workers who got tired of loosing limbs in poor working conditions (and poor wages) and decided to do something about it.
Of course, you could repeal the safety standards, the pay, and all those other little niceties and reintroduce the effective sweatshop in America. But if you know your history, then you'd realize that's a sure way to get a lot of people very angry very quickly.
The trick is to find a reasonable balance to maintain a working system. Pure capitalism doesn't work, because of greed (many historical examples of people doing really bad things in the name of money). Pure communism doesn't work because we aren't bees. Pure socialism doesn't work because people always strive for something better.
But to naively suggest that the current state of everything is all due to liberals is shear nonsense. We've gotten to this point through the joint efforts of both. And it will take the joint efforts of both to fix this mess.
~X~
I AM NOT A DEMOCRAT but to lay our current situation at the feet of Democrats is akin to being a subversive and traitor (OK OK that's hyperbole!) since the facts speak the exact opposite.)
Democrats tax and spend. I hate it. They tax too much and spend too much. HOWEVER, Republicans are WORSE! They borrow and spend thereby fooling people to think that they're getting a free ride while they put off a debt that our children and grandchildren will pay. While I hate overspending and overtaxing I'd rather my country at least know what it is we spend on so my kids and grandkids have a chance to right the ship. As it stands now the debt of our country is so high that I'm afraid my kids will not be able to pay down that debt.
What will happen is that we will default on that debt (Medicare and SS obligations will get rearranged and reduced just like those private plans at Ford and GM.) What may also happen is that we will no longer be on the dollar currency. Europe may offer us some Euros to cancel our debts and then we'll lose our sovreignty and become just another country in the world.
Amazing ... all of this collapse in under 50 years and no one seems to be able to see it. The big wigs see it but they don't care since they're going to be wealthier and more powerful than ever. I am not talking about $250,000 per years employees. I'm speaking of the super wealthy.
Sorry for the long post but this is the way it's coming down. Read "The Coming Economic Earthquake" by Larry Burkett. He wrote it in the 1990's. He was spot on ... only his timing was off (and he even said that his timing was most probably off but the results were inevitable.)
Anyone with a 2nd grade ed. knows that you can't continue to spend more than you make, but that's what the Gov. has been doing for many years. At ALL LEVELS !
The biggest problem of all is that we have a NAFTA agreement that allows other countries to ship goods into this country , duty free, and take worthless dollars for those products. The Fed. Gov. at all levels, does not seem to get it in their heads, that we can't continue to send jobs overeas, and import virtually everything, and pay with dollars tht are not worth the paper they are printed on.
We , as a country are losing jobs at an alarming rate, but the guys in Washington, seem to think it's great that the things we import are so cheap ! Welll, now they are only starting to wake up. What we truly need is FAIR trade, in other words, let other countries as a whole, import anything up the total amount that we export. And that's it,...the imports stop until they buy an equal amount of American products, that we export !
I spent many years overseas, and the central banks in most countries just plain shut off imports, until exports gave them some real money with which to trade. That's the real answer !! Any time we import anything, and pay with dollars, ...foreign countries countries just end up holding a bag of dollars that are worth less and less every day !!
Nafta simply opened the doors wide to all imports while the foreign Governments charged duty on anything we sent to them !
That's not "Fair" trade !!! Fair trade is when imports equal exports. !
Period. The reason for the high price of oil for example, is not that oil is scarce, it;s just being paid for in dollars that have no value anymore. so they just charge more and more Dollars to make up for the "falling dollar".
I can;t figure out why that's so hard to understand, but I guess
it's because we keep electing politians who simply don't understand basic economics ! If you people don't understand this ,...go back to school and take some basic Econ. courses !!
LC
This is not and never has been a Republican / Democrat thing, it is all those jerks in Washington working side by side who created the mess and anyone who tries to blame one party more than the other, just doesn't get it ! It's not political, ...It's just plain stupidity and lack of education.
LC
Bring back Voelker if he can and is willing and make him a super Tsar at Fed Reserve.
None of this will be done. We are doomed. A crash will solve the problem but what a selfish way for the government to allow this.
The viability of the U.S. and Foreign-dollar as international units of account is threatened by the huge trade deficits. Given the present and prospective trade deficits, this situation is not likely to continue for long. Foreigners will simply be saturated with excess dollars.
The volume of dollar-denominated liquid assets held by foreigners is extremely large. Any significant repatriation of these funds, by reducing the supply of loan-funds, will force interest rates up - thus increasing the federal deficit and the burden of all new debt. These events alone could trigger a downswing in the economy resulting in more unemployment, more unemployment compensation, less tax revenues and larger federal deficits. Truly a vicious cycle.
Why is the dollar down?
In a word "Reaganomics"
We are now being "trickled down" on. it takes decades for flawed theories to reveal that it was all theory, not reality. But this is what the people wanted, a well told story!
It used to be politicians would do what was good for themselves but also what was good for the country and the people. When there was a conflict, they put country first. Same thing with CEO's. They went after profits but knew when to stop if it was bad for the country. Look at all the earmarks being spent. Hundreds of millions of dollars on a bridge in Alaska that benefits 50 people. When questioned, Alaska Senator Stevens shamelessly defend it. Same thing with the Senator Byrd from Virginia. This are just two examples. How about Cunningham and a few more who are now in jail for their greed. Mozillo of Countrywide. He built his company by inducing people to buy homes that he knew fully well, the subprime people could not afford. In the old days, the banker would ask a few questions and when he senses you are not qualified, he turned you down right there. Never mind that he does not earn a fee; he knows the right way from the wrong way of doing business. Take GM, what used to be the biggest US company. They stayed with manufacturing big, highly profitable cars, SUVs, Hummers and pickups until they started loosing billions of dollars this year. They neglected the small car markets all these years and now have to scamble but, may not survive. They had no Plan B. Yet, they were paid millions in salaries and options to think! A bunch of greedy and stupid dummies. To top it all, there is no talk at all of ousting them!
But, the blame does not rest solely with them. The voters (and those who decide not to vote) too should take the blame. They voted for these crooked selfish politicians. Now voters have a chance to correct the situation but they are voting the wrong way. They are leaning towards Obama who has not shown nor proven that when push comes to shove, he will put the country first. McCain has been tested -- he tried to put a crimp on special interests with his McCain Feingold act, he has worked to limit or eliminate earmarks, he chose to stay in Vietnamese jail and prolong his suffering rather than be freed while his fellow American soldiers remain in jail. He cares deeply for his country and can be counted on to do his best to protect it. Americans need to wake up. Obama is amateur hour like George Bush II; we do not need another 4 years of poor leadership. Where are our leaders like FDR, Truman, Reagan, Bush Sr. -- who put country first? How come we have so many Mozillo's, Grasso's, Ken Lays' and very few CEOs like Bill Gates and W. Buffet. When have we seen two richest Americans pour thier billions on improving the health of mankind? Bush Jr should award them the nations' highest honor before the end of his term.