Cramer's Mad Money - Welcome Back, Cisco (8/16/12)

by: Miriam Metzinger

Stocks discussed on the in-depth session of Jim Cramer's Mad Money TV Program, Thursday August 16.

Welcome Back, Cisco (NASDAQ:CSCO)

Cramer has been critical of Cisco (CSCO) for a long time, given its unfulfilled promises. However, the company reported an unexpectedly strong quarter, and it wasn't as hurt by Europe as many feared it would be. The company is seeing a turnaround and has boosted its dividend by 75%. Cisco is taking market share, and is going to go higher. "Welcome back, Cisco," Cramer said.

Wal-Mart (NYSE:WMT), Sears Holdings (NASDAQ:SHLD), NetApp (NASDAQ:NTAP), Abercrombie & Fitch (NYSE:ANF), J.C. Penney (NYSE:JCP), Facebook (NASDAQ:FB)

The Dow made a welcome move up 85 points, but the way stocks react don't seem to make sense lately. Many companies with positive news are seeing their share prices fall, while some stocks of companies with lackluster earnings are rising. Wal-Mart (WMT) was down $2.30 in spite of the fact it beat earnings estimates and guided higher. However, WMT lately has been a hot stock, rising 20% so far this year, and it needed to blow away the numbers to avoid a sell-off. Cisco rose 9.6% on results that weren't outstanding, but since management wasn't as downbeat as usual and gave rosy guidance, the stock rallied. Cisco's 75% dividend boost also helped.

Sears Holdings (SHLD) has been a laggard for a while, and although its same store sales declined, gross margins improved slightly, causing the stock to rise over 3 dollars. NetApp (NTAP), didn't do as badly as expected, even with revenues down 15%, and the stock rose. Abercrombie& Fitch (ANF) and J.C. Penney (JCP) have been disappointing stocks to own, and in spite of ANF's downside guidance, the stock rose 9% following earnings; JCP's shares rose in spite of a 19% decline in same store sales. Both JCP and ANF reported results that were not great, but were not as negative as anticipated. In addition, ANF and JCP had huge short positions, and when the shorts scrambled to cover their positions, the stocks rose.

Cramer took some calls:

Facebook (FB) is a stock that has a heavy short position, and while Cramer says he was at one point hoping more buyers would come in, he doesn't see things improving for FB, given its struggle with mobile advertising.

CEO Interview: Cheryl Bachelder, AFC Enterprises (AFCE)

AFC Enterprises (AFCE), owner of Popeye's Chicken and Louisiana Kitchen, reported a solid quarter, beat earnings estimates by a penny with revenues rising 12% and same store sales surging 7.5%. Nevertheless, the stock dropped after an initial rise, and a few analysts downgraded the stock. AFC's shares were up 60% year to date, and it is possible that the decline was the result of profit-taking. Cramer thinks the decline might be a buying opportunity, since AFC has revamped its brands, has dramatically improved its stores and is expanding aggressively domestically and internationally.

CEO Cheryl Bachelder pointed out that same store sales for AFC rose at a much higher rate than that of the competition. The company continues to innovate "red hot" menu items; "There is no fatigue in our kitchen," said Bachelder. The company saw the highest profits and margins ever, a 21.8% increase in the latter metric. "We are the hottest concept in Turkey right now," said Bachelder, and the growing middle class in Turkey is enjoying cajun food. The analysts' concern about rising raw costs is misplaced, she explained, because the business is franchise-based, and the parent company is not hurt by commodity costs. In addition, analysts are underestimating AFC's ability to grow and expand. "The stock is on the right trajectory," Cramer said.

Brown-Forman (BFA), Beam (NYSE:BEAM), Diageo (NYSE:DEO), Constellation Brands (NYSE:STZ), Coca-Cola (NYSE:KO), Pepsico (NYSE:PEP), Dr. Pepper Snapple Group (NYSE:DPS), SodaStream (NASDAQ:SODA)

Liquor stocks are en fuego; Brown-Forman (BFA) has seen a 34% gain year over year, Beam has increased 37% and Diageo has risen 39%. While all of these stocks have run, and Cramer would wait for a pullback before buying, one outshines the others; Diageo.

While these companies have similar businesses, they are not identical. All have top-notch brands with instant name recognition. However, Diageo offers a larger dividend, at 2.5% (BFA's is 1.5% and Beam's is 1.4%). Even though Diageo is based in London, it has less European exposure than the other two and is the leading liquor company in China, where it recently bought a distillery. DEO's gross margins are higher, and it trades at a multiple of 16.6 compared to BEAM's and BFA's multiples in the low 20s, however, DEO's growth rate, at 10.4%, is not substantially lower than the other two. While Cramer prefers DEO, he once again reminded viewers to wait for a pullback before buying.

Cramer took some calls:

Constellation Brands (STZ) has seen a substantial gain. Cramer would take the money and run.

There is a draw between Coca-Cola (KO), which reported a good quarter, and Pepsico (PEP), which is introducing great initiatives. Cramer has more conviction in those two than in Dr. Pepper Snapple Group (DPS).

SodaStream (SODA) has been performing better, but Cramer says the stock is so volatile and hard to predict that he would stay away.

Mad Mail: Jazz Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ:JAZZ), Gaylord Entertainment (GET), NXP Semiconductors (NASDAQ:NXPI), Kodiak Oil & Gas (NYSE:KOG), Hershey (NYSE:HSY), D.R. Horton (NYSE:DHI), Lions Gate (LGF)

Jazz Pharmaceuticals (JAZZ) has 22 products concentrating mainly on the nervous system and women's health. It has the only FDA approved treatment for daytime tiredness suffered by narcolepsy patients. The company beat earnings and gave stellar guidance, but trades at a discount. Cramer likes Jazz, but warned that it trades choppily, so it is not recommended to buy a large position at once.

Gaylord Entertainment (GET) will soon convert to a REIT and will yield around 5%. Cramer thinks this could be a good income generator.

NXP Semiconductors (NXPI) has strong visibility, and its latest quarter was solid. NXPI could have a spike in the fall.

Kodiak Oil & Gas (KOG) has been red hot. Cramer would wait for a decline to buy.

Hershey (HSY) has a mutli-year story, but the safety trade is off. Cramer would take off half a position in Hershey and play with the house's money.

Lion's Gate (LGF) seems stuck and needs a catalyst.


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