Mid-Year Picks and Pans From Barron's Roundtable Part III

Barron's magazine returns to its 11 Roundtable participants, who weigh-in with their mid-year thoughts, and updated stock picks. (see part I and part II)

Felix Zulauf

• He sees 3-4 years of market choppiness ahead. Financials and consumers will remain weak; energy and agriculture stocks will keep rising.
• Zulauf suggests shorting T-bonds (Ed: iShares Lehman 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT)) and Japanese Government bonds, buying Nikkei futures, and going long commodities using PowerShares DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund (DBC).

Abby Cohen

• The current market is now deep abyss. Cohen thinks "a saucer-shaped recovery is more likely." If companies become more comfortable with the future, 2009 could be an upside surprise.
• She likes Bank of New York Mellon (BK), which should benefit from economies of scale as it integrates Mellon. D.R. Horton (DHI) one of the better-managed homebuilders at the bottom of its cycle. SanDisk (SNDK) it's more clever than the Street gives it credit for. Eli Lilly (LLY) it's pipeline looks good. AT&T (T) should cash-in on the rapid growth of wireless.

Meryl Witmer

• Stocks could climb 10-15% as housing inventories clear out, and if the oil bubble bursts.
• She likes carpet tile maker Interface (IFSIA) for its emphasis on "green." Shares are down to a bargain prices of $13 from $20 last July.

Comments

[Lisa:]

It's helpful also to see their performance in the last round of stock picks:
s.wsj.net/public/resou...

2008 Jun 15 06:18 PM

[CrossProfit:]

RE Felix Zulauf:
Going long Nikkei futures sounds good. The rest...?, better picks given by others.

RE Abby Cohen:
BK has already sliced up and devoured Mellon, get with it. DHI has at least two years before the wounds heal. Don't know what slyness SNDK is hiding and if it's hidden neither does anyone else so how do you expect the stock to go up? LLY pipeline looks good? Yeah, with rose colored glasses (O.K., that's a bit harsh) and T ain't cashin in on anything as it plays catch up.

Basically, Abby said it all in her opening assessment: "saucer-shaped" as in outer space UFO picks.

RE Meryl Witmer:
Can't argue with an "if"!

2008 Jun 15 06:31 PM

[redbaron:]

Great Point, Lisa.............one could reasonably expect real postive results from those we are we are putting on that investment pedestal.

2008 Jun 15 06:44 PM

[mwswi:]

Pick an expert... any expert. Their guesses -- including all the other so-called "experts" -- are as good as anyone's... including ours.

2008 Jun 15 07:15 PM

[dieuwer:]

In 1982: Oil at $40, DOW at 1000.
In 2008: Oil at $140, DOW at 12,000.

In 26 years, oil increased 3.5 times, DOW increased 12 times! You tell me where the bubble is...

2008 Jun 15 09:02 PM

[BxCapricorn:]

Great point dieuwer. Oil up 107% over the past year, while the Dow over the past year is.....up, no wait...hey, you're just cherry picking time periods....clever.

2008 Jun 15 09:40 PM

[john redmond:]

what a bunch of con men. You know! you will never make any money in the market until you learn to ignore the "experts" and take the time and effort to teach yourself how to invest properly.

2008 Jun 16 02:29 AM

[dieuwer:]

I'm sticking with commodities

2008 Jun 16 03:40 PM

[David Hunkar:]

Johnredmond
Couldn't agree more.Another things invests ought to do is switch off business channels.

2008 Jun 16 07:31 PM

[bve:]

Thanks Lisa for last years picks list. Back to reality

Louie

On Jun 15 06:18 PM Lisa wrote:

> It's helpful also to see their performance in the last round of stock
> picks:
> s.wsj.net/public/resou...
>

2008 Jun 17 04:22 PM

[messy:]

Hi,,,,ever since Abby named AT&T as one of her favorites, it has done nothing but go down. So much for Abby's picks and notice that they are all on NYSE AND LARGE CAP STOCKS TOO.

2008 Jun 17 05:08 PM

[nojoe6pack:]

lets face it, most of you couldn't carry Abby's running bra.
If you have been investing thru many cycles (I have) you will know that yesterday's huge winners are tomorrow's giant losers.
DHI, if owned for a proper time period...like 3 years, will very likely do far better than commodities.

2008 Jun 17 10:34 PM

[globalview99:]

dieuwer,

give it up...in 1982, oil was overpriced and the DJIA underpriced. Anyone who shorted oil and went long stocks in 1982 is a billionaire today. In 2008, the same is true, oil is overpriced and stocks are underpriced; short oil and go long stocks and in 25 years you'll be a billionaire

2008 Jun 19 12:57 AM