Mid-Year Picks and Pans From Barron's Roundtable Part III 13 comments
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Barron's magazine returns to its 11 Roundtable participants, who weigh-in with their mid-year thoughts, and updated stock picks. (see part I and part II)
Felix Zulauf
- He sees 3-4 years of market choppiness ahead. Financials and consumers will remain weak; energy and agriculture stocks will keep rising.
- Zulauf suggests shorting T-bonds (Ed: iShares Lehman 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT)) and Japanese Government bonds, buying Nikkei futures, and going long commodities using PowerShares DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund (DBC).
Abby Cohen
- The current market is now deep abyss. Cohen thinks "a saucer-shaped recovery is more likely." If companies become more comfortable with the future, 2009 could be an upside surprise.
- She likes Bank of New York Mellon (BK), which should benefit from economies of scale as it integrates Mellon. D.R. Horton (DHI) one of the better-managed homebuilders at the bottom of its cycle. SanDisk (SNDK) it's more clever than the Street gives it credit for. Eli Lilly (LLY) it's pipeline looks good. AT&T (T) should cash-in on the rapid growth of wireless.
Meryl Witmer
- Stocks could climb 10-15% as housing inventories clear out, and if the oil bubble bursts.
- She likes carpet tile maker Interface (IFSIA) for its emphasis on "green." Shares are down to a bargain prices of $13 from $20 last July.
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This article has 13 comments:
s.wsj.net/public/resou...
Going long Nikkei futures sounds good. The rest...?, better picks given by others.
RE Abby Cohen:
BK has already sliced up and devoured Mellon, get with it. DHI has at least two years before the wounds heal. Don't know what slyness SNDK is hiding and if it's hidden neither does anyone else so how do you expect the stock to go up? LLY pipeline looks good? Yeah, with rose colored glasses (O.K., that's a bit harsh) and T ain't cashin in on anything as it plays catch up.
Basically, Abby said it all in her opening assessment: "saucer-shaped" as in outer space UFO picks.
RE Meryl Witmer:
Can't argue with an "if"!
In 2008: Oil at $140, DOW at 12,000.
In 26 years, oil increased 3.5 times, DOW increased 12 times! You tell me where the bubble is...
Couldn't agree more.Another things invests ought to do is switch off business channels.
Thanks Lisa for last years picks list. Back to reality
Louie
On Jun 15 06:18 PM Lisa wrote:
> It's helpful also to see their performance in the last round of stock
> picks:
> s.wsj.net/public/resou...
>
If you have been investing thru many cycles (I have) you will know that yesterday's huge winners are tomorrow's giant losers.
DHI, if owned for a proper time period...like 3 years, will very likely do far better than commodities.
give it up...in 1982, oil was overpriced and the DJIA underpriced. Anyone who shorted oil and went long stocks in 1982 is a billionaire today. In 2008, the same is true, oil is overpriced and stocks are underpriced; short oil and go long stocks and in 25 years you'll be a billionaire