1990 Redux: A Technical Look

| About: SPDR S&P (SPY)

If you're bullish, you are probably looking for a huge oversold rally similar to the one that the market experienced off the 1990 lows.  The fundamentals are obviously quite similar.  The banking crisis in 1990 was just as acute as it is today.  The price of oil was a shock to the economy that sent it spiraling into recession.  Sentiment was extremely negative. 

And the stock patterns also look amazingly similar.  Here's the current S&P 500 setup...

SPX 1990 Comparison 061708

...and here's what the market looked like in 1990.

SPX 1990

Here's what happened in 1990 after the decline to support.

SPX 1990 Through Rally

A massive 20% rally that launched the 1990s bull market.  If we get a huge intraday relief rally based on lower oil or better than expected earnings, I might not be as quick to sell into it as I previously noted.  The 1990 comparison has a lot of merit as it stands right now.