1990 Redux: A Technical Look

If you're bullish, you are probably looking for a huge oversold rally similar to the one that the market experienced off the 1990 lows.  The fundamentals are obviously quite similar.  The banking crisis in 1990 was just as acute as it is today.  The price of oil was a shock to the economy that sent it spiraling into recession.  Sentiment was extremely negative. 

And the stock patterns also look amazingly similar.  Here's the current S&P 500 setup...

...and here's what the market looked like in 1990.

Here's what happened in 1990 after the decline to support.

A massive 20% rally that launched the 1990s bull market.  If we get a huge intraday relief rally based on lower oil or better than expected earnings, I might not be as quick to sell into it as I previously noted.  The 1990 comparison has a lot of merit as it stands right now.

Comments

[Indexor:]

Excellent picture. Here's hoping history repeats.

2008 Jun 18 11:31 AM