Wednesday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets

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Earnings from brokers are starting to roll in and Goldman Sachs (GS) reported better than expected earnings but the stock sold-off. They reported trading gains of $5.59 billion which came from a variety of sources but commodity markets were notably mentioned but not detailed. Do you think they’d take money from the Fed and trade crude oil with it? That would be something but it wouldn’t surprise me. Those congressmen venting about those “dark” commodity markets would really have something to deal with. But, wait, GS are pretty friendly with those complaining loudest.

I’m still a little stumped by Friday’s rally given the thin news to back it up. The only thing to attribute it to was the oversold conditions of the McClellan Oscillator which can be a pretty reliable “tell”.



I won’t be posting again tomorrow as I’m flying from SFO to LAX for another conference. I hope to post again on Friday.

Have a pleasant day.

Disclaimer: Among other issues the ETF Digest maintains long or short positions in: TLT, TBT, UUP, DRR, GLD, DZZ, DBA, and DAG.

Comments

[adan:]

re: "Do you think they’d take money from the Fed and trade crude oil with it?"

yes - which is a crime to receive monies from the public, profit from it as they do, and not return the gains back to us

but as long as people are either ignorant of how we subsidize the these guys, or finally are hurt enough by this greed where their own lives are in true jeopardy, it'll continue

trust in our system, and in these type of businesses, and the people running them, will be the ultimate price paid

unfortunately, this will hurt all of us, them and us

possibly a more ethical capitalism would emerge, but isn't that like betting against the trend?


ps - good to have your charts and commentary back too :-)

2008 Jun 18 09:01 AM

[pielcanela:]

What's a stick save and who is Chucky?

2008 Jun 18 09:46 AM

[David Fry:]

Chucky [character from movies you can't kill] is the name I humorously [?] give to the American consumer.

You're not Canadian obviously, but a "stick save" is that which a hockey goalie does to prevent a goal.

I need a glossary, aaaaaa!

2008 Jun 18 10:14 AM

[User 212275:]

Hey David. Your negative on US stocks and treasuries. So where in the world do you put your money. Foreign equities and cash?

2008 Jun 18 11:36 AM

[Jerry Dill:]

I am a little surprised at how well the commodities traded index has been operating. Is there a promising future outlook for commodities especially now?

2008 Jun 18 12:51 PM

[Emerald:]

Be very careful out there as Chucky is tapped out and squeezed by higher gas and food prices and very little credit to turn to such as home equity lines or crdit cards. Natural gas, rig builders and short the long bond are the only real plays. Capital preservation is at a premium right now.

2008 Jun 18 03:13 PM

[Marol:]

Mr. Fry: "As go financials so too goes most dividend models which chase “d” higher dividends and trouble." I don't understand what you mean, and it stands important -- could you say more?

(I also don't understand why -- on earth, no less -- you feel we "must" drill for more oil -- but that's another matter altogether.)

I might add that I too enjoy your graphs even if I usually don't understand them -- I find the comments useful and fun.

2008 Jun 19 12:52 AM