Homebuilder Values Overshot to the Downside?

We saw here with Orleans Homebuilding (OHB) that markets can be fairly adept at figuring out whether book values will increase or decrease, but that they tend to overshoot their marks, offering buy opportunities when they overshoot to the downside. But was Orleans a one-off? Let's look at a few more builders to see if there's a common theme emerging.

Here's a look at Dominion Homes (DHOM), operating in 3 states in the US:

We do see here once again several occasions where the market predicts the direction of book values before they occur (1994, 1996, 2001,2006). However, we do see occasions where the market is wrong as well, with a big drop in 1998 and 2002. Once again, we also see that on almost each of these occasions, the market overshot, offering dramatic buy opportunities in 1996, 2000, and possibly today?

The next chart is of California Coastal Communities (CALC):

This one is a bit perplexing, with market values taking a huge plunge in the early nineties. Market value continues to underperform book throughout the 2000s (until a bout of irrational exuberance in 2004), suggesting that for some reason investors were turned off by this company. I'd be interested to dig into why this was trading at such a sharp discount.

The last chart is of Meritage Homes (MTH):

This is a bit more typical from what we saw earlier, with markets correctly predicting directions of book value, while nevertheless overshooting both to the downside and upside, providing opportunities when market values are much less than book values.

 

Disclosure: none

Comments

[.crazylegs..:]

CHCI is Comstock Homebuilding Cos, an awfully run homebuilder that loaded up on condo conversion deals in the DC metro area.

2008 Jun 18 01:41 PM

[Publicliter...:]

CHCI is not the symbol for California Costal Homes. Otherwise, I enjoyed the article.

2008 Jun 18 11:52 PM

[sickofthehype:]

The pendulum generally swings too far in times of trouble, regardless of the market. Look at oil - 'It will never come down, we're doomed!' Look at housing - 'It's a terrible time to buy, values will keep going down for years!' Look at mortgage rates - 'Rates will NEVER be this low again' Look at inflation and the dollar - 'We're doomed!!!!' See a pattern?

Those who take advantage of the over-swings make nice profits off the fears of everyone else...

2008 Jun 19 12:19 AM

[Saj Karsan:]

Thank you for the notes. Seeking Alpha has fixed the error on CALC

2008 Jul 04 01:48 PM