Are Consumers Too Gloomy - Or Is the Data That Bad?

That's the question asked by the Washington Post:

Soft? You betcha. In recession? Quite possibly. And a crisis in the financial markets has rattled nerves for months now. But so far, the economy is holding up better than it did during the last two recessions in 1990 and 2001. Employers haven't shed as many jobs, the unemployment rate is still relatively low, and gross domestic product has kept rising. Things are nowhere near as bad as they were in the Great Depression, or even during the severe recession of 1982-83. The last time consumers were this miserable, in May 1980, the jobless rate was 7.5 percent and inflation was 14.4 percent. Now those numbers are 5.5 percent and 4.2 percent respectively.

Anyone who makes the comparison between the stats today versus 30 years ago is revealing their economic naiveté. Even if you take the headline data at face value (which you never should), you have to acknowledge the many changes in how the BLS models are constructed over the years. It becomes an apples to oranges comparison. Perhaps the fault lies not within ourselves, but within our data.

Maybe we should be asking different questions of our financial media instead:  "Is our press economically ignorant? What level of statistical naiveté is tolerable in the mass media? When did our financial media become mere stenographers? What happened to critical thought, analytical rigor or investigative journalism? Wasn't the charge of the press at one time to "afflict the comfortable?"

To be blunt, any scribe that trots out the headline data on Unemployment or Inflation as gospel are either fools or liars.

Of course, one possibility is that Americans are ungrateful, we are morons, we are too dumb to understand how good we have it. The other option is that the official models,  like any mathematical depiction of reality, are flawed. It's not that they are worthless, it's that they are not a precise or accurate depiction of the real world.

Here are a few clues for the naive, who do not seem to understand why Americans are so unhappy with the state of the world's affairs:

• Prices have far outstripped wage and income growth, leading to the first major decrease in the standard of living in the US in the modern era.

• It's more than food and energy prices -- medical care and education costs have gone up 10-15% per year, local municipal and property taxes are rapidly rising, and yes, even free-falling housing remains considerably higher relative to median income.

• The US savings rate flipped into negative territory for the first time since the Great Depression. That doesn't mean we are going to go into a depression -- but it's no reason to be cheerful.

• Curiously, this article on sentiment failed to mention either of the words "Iraq" or "War." How, in a discussion on psychology, can there be no mention of War fatigue? There is a weariness related to the ongoing costs and casualties of the Iraq War, even as it slides off the front pages. It has worn on the national psyche for more than 5 years. Yet that was not worthy of any mention; that reeks of hackdom.

• We are barely a quarter or two into what is still not acknowledged as a recession by many. The danger, reflected in Sentiment data, is that the economy rolls into something far uglier --a deeper and more prolonged contraction.

As to the broader state of the economy, let me direct the author of this one column to yesterday's Federal Express (FDX) earnings. The economic bellwether's report were nothing short of fugly. FedEx management issued an inflationary-recession view of the economy. FedEx lost $241m due to what they called "soaring fuel costs and a very difficult economic environment." They are primarily a business-to-business shipper, but UPS, their more consumer oriented competitor, had very similar things to say. In terms of future guidance, FedEx CFO Alan Graf said that the coming year will be “very difficult due to the weak U.S. economy and extremely high fuel prices.”

Gee, that doesn't sound like our economic woes are psychosomatic. 

~~~

We have discussed over the past 5 years how inflation is so much worse than reported. The latest pushback against this meme has been not only wrong, but lame. It's a difficult argument to make, and this is a typical weak example of exactly why that is.

I'll have more on some other inflation related nonsense later today; tomorrow, we will look at those who accuse we who challenge the official data as tin foil hat wearing, grand conspiracy theorists...

Previously
Consumer Sentiment Hits 28 Year Lows (June 2008)
http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/2008/06/consumer-sentim.html

Sources:
Why We're Gloomier Than The Economy; Consumer Anxiety Outstrips the Data
Neil Irwin
Washington Post, June 18, 2008; Page A01
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/06/17/AR2008061702463.html

FedEx Has First Loss in 11 Years; Profit to Decline 
Mary Jane Credeur   
Bloomberg, June 18 2008 
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=aBPgROetK_Oc

Related:
Hard numbers: The economy is worse than you know
Kevin Phillips
Harper's Magazine, Sunday, April 27, 2008
http://www.tampabay.com/news/article473596.ece