Record Decline in Driving, Record Level of Conservation

The Federal Highway Administration reported that travel during April 2008 on all roads and streets in the nation fell by 1.8%, resulting in estimated travel for the month at 245.9 billion vehicle-miles. April marks the sixth consectutive month of traffic volume decline, compared to the same month in the previous year. Cumulative travel for 2008 fell by 2.1% compared to 2007.

On a moving 12-month total basis, traffic volume fell to a three-year low of 2.982 trillion miles, the lowest level since May of 2005 (see chart above), and it has fallen in each of the last six months. This six month trend (in both year-over-year traffic and the moving 12-month total) is the most significant adjustment in driving behavior in at least the last 25 years.

There was never more than a single monthly decline in traffic volume until 2006, a few examples of two consectutive monthly declines 2006 and early 2007, but never in the history of these data was there ever a period of more than a 2-month consecutive decline until now, and therefore the 6 consecutive monthly decline is a record, and represents the most significant adjustment to driving behavior in recent history.

High gas prices are working - consumers are changing their behavior by driving less and conserving gasoline. In fact, high gas prices have probably done more to change behavior and inspire conservation of fossil fuels than all of the Earth Days, and all of the efforts of groups like the Sierra Club, combined. Consumers have "found the religion of environmentalism and conservation" through high gas prices.

Comments

[notsosmart:]

about time!

2008 Jun 22 11:27 AM

[CLH:]

Time to buy DUG (shorting oil stocks).

2008 Jun 22 01:32 PM

[Paul Killinger:]

Hi, CLH, good to hear from you!

I'm only half kidding when I suggest you may want to be careful here. They may have named it "DUG" for a reason... as in the hole you'd be in if it continued to go the other way... ha, ha!

2008 Jun 22 03:31 PM

[Paul Killinger:]

Mark,

Correct me if I'm mistaken, but you're usually on the other side of this issue, aren't you?

If by saying consumers have "found environmentalism," you mean we've figured out who to blame for our self-imposed energy crisis, you are absolutely correct. By more than 3 to 1, Americans now want the Congress to allow us to explore domestically for more oil and gas.

Indeed, I wouldn't be too heartbroken if oil prices didn't recede for a while right now, not that they're going to, anyway. That way we can get rid of BOTH the Greens and Democrats together come November this time around.

2008 Jun 22 03:48 PM

[Paul Killinger:]

As for the record decline in driving, people are "conserving" enough gas to be able to afford to go to work. Wait until they go to trade in their big cars for the fuel efficient new ones coming out soon. When they found out their present vehicles are basically worthless, they'e going to be REALLY mad.

You know, this whole mess was actually caused by the "unintended consequences" of ending the Cold War. Finally free, the citizens of the BRIC countries among others figured out they could work hard and perhaps enjoy a lifestyle more like ours.

The Greens would do well to try and comprehend what the "unintended consequences" of their drive to conserve energy and eschew the use of our traditional domestic energy resources is doing our nation's economy and the prosperity of the American people.

2008 Jun 22 04:10 PM

[carloz678:]

Paulk, mabe you'er right about the unintended consequences but the fact is that the end of the cold war was caused by low oil prices. The Soviet Union could not make it with oil at 8.00/bbl. The consequences of high oil prices will be more war.

The real subject here is the 245 billion est, miles driven in April this year. I found US oil consumption on the EIA site listed at 20 mil. barrels/ day or times 30 days 600 million barrels/ month. 245 billion divide by 600 million = 408 miles/barrel/42gal. = about 10 miles/ gallon. A 5 mile/ gal. increase in mileage would result in a 1/3 reduction in oil use or 200 million barrels/ month or/ 30 = 6.66 million barrels/ day. Thats a lot of oil. Eschew that.

2008 Jun 22 07:05 PM

[UNCMOISH:]

this is very interesting, BUT,.....what about the rest of the world? are there any similar figures being anayized , for example, at the united nations?

2008 Jun 22 11:26 PM

[UNCMOISH:]

just keep trucking!

2008 Jun 22 11:27 PM

[zigger:]

carlosz,

10 mile per gallon seems low, i'd like to check the math; where did you get the 20 mil. barrels/day on the EIA site? Is that only for transportation use, or does it include all uses? I found on the EIA site motor gasoline sales to be about 180 x 10^6 gallons per month, for all grades of gasoline sold in the US. Dividing that into 245 x 10^9 miles/month gives about 175 miles/gallon! so something is off in my calculations. One thing you didn't address; is the 245 billion miles traveled per month for passenger traffic, or does it include over the road truck traffic. ORT average mileage is about miles per gallon of diesel. What is the calculation if you divide passenger traveled miles by gasoline useage? Then i'd be interested to see what a 5 mpg improvement would do to our useage.

let me know if this makes sense.

2008 Jun 23 12:33 AM

[zigger:]

whoops, i mean gasoline use is about 180 x 10^7 gallons per month.

2008 Jun 23 12:34 AM

[zigger:]

dang, i should learn to proofread before publishing; average ORT mileage is 5 mpg.

2008 Jun 23 12:36 AM

[thelongolian:]

Just about everyone I talk to is conserving petro. I believe in the high end of the estiment.

2008 Jun 23 12:51 AM

[yank:]

We can crow all we like about how much gas we are "conserving" but unless Chiina and India "substantially" reduce their gas subsidies it won't make a damn bit of difference. Last time I checked gas usage in the BRIC countries year-to-date is UP 4%, completely negating any effect we are patting ourselves on the back for. As for the contention that we are driving less let's say I am a bit sceptical. I live in the Miami metro area and have seen little if any drop off in vehicular traffic. Also, I just returned from a business trip in DC/Northern VA area and the traffic on the roads was just as bad as ever. I am not buying this lower miles per driven data. Sounds like Govt propaganda to me.

2008 Jun 23 03:02 PM