Microvision's No Show Hands the Pico Projector Market to TI

9/16/08: This article has been removed due to the author's failure to respond to communication from SA editors.

Comments

[homeTon]

You have never seen the two displays next to each other and once that comparison id made Microvision's display will appear about twice as bright as TI's - lumens don't tell the brightness story as well as the eye. But that is only part of the story. Lasers have a much better color saturation, which means that the color from Microvision is much richer and can display many more colors. Additionally, each pixel from Microvision's display can be adjusted for color and brightness - TI has to have the LCD's on max brightness over the whole surface of their chip all the time and much of the light has to be converted to waste heat. The colors also are leaked to adjacent pixels and that is why the display looks washed out. For a cell phone projector, this waste of energy drains the battery and cannot be used for long without getting to hot to hold. The major market is not business, it is the 14 to 25 year olds and they will demand infinite focus. Good luck on your short!

[User 213774]

We still need to see if either will create a market place. The battery life for a device may be too short to be of any value at this time. It is an interesting idea, but we have had holograms for years with no real market.

[fatwollit]

Possibly, Mulcahy is correct, I don't have the knowledge necessary to make a judgement as to which is the best under what circumstances. Just to point out that, in any area of tech business, there's more than enough room for more than one player; just one example: Blackberry and iPhone, not to mention all the other cell-phone entrants out there, all busily making a profit for their respective companies. I'm inclined to think that the closing statement in Mulcahy's article says all I need to know about this story. I quote:

"Disclosure: Author works in a hedge fund that is short Microvision"

[dcbeane]

This is the reason for the article:

finance.yahoo.com/q/bc...=

[ME_wwwing]

did you notice that the DLP has faded corners and a bright center? Microvision's does have these problems! No
the run times for DLP are somewhere between 1+hrs. Microvision is 1.5 hrs and will get better (2+hrs).
can the DLP last 2+hrs without a fan? and thats a question for all LED projectors!
DLP is SVGA 800x600 256 colors for the Standalones. Microvision is 848×480 with DVD colors!
Microvision's projector is getting smaller with the new Green Lasers. maybe 5mm thick! DLP's can't get much thinner or smaller without losing the 800x600 resolution. Microvision can go to a high resolution!
have you noticed the Est. prices for DLP projectors and Microvision's is the same?

do you know the requirements for the cellphone companies?
7mm thickness - last more then 2 hrs. does DLP fit these requirements? No So you can't back up your statement of DLP going into thin cellphones! thin is in!
this is where market sales are at! a 800 million units per yr. window.
yes - in the Standalone projectors there will be many to come out with a small projector.
lets look at the zune vs. ipod. who's got the sales?
cool form factor is what makes them sell.

now when it comes to moneies to back up the tech. have we seen anything DLP from these names? NOK SONY Epson MOT! - No

you're welcome for the DD!
the true is - 3M's tech can be made smaller and better then TXN's DLP!!
better keep your night job! sitting there writing without knowing the facts makes you looks ______.

first big name that comes out. and you will be long MVIS!

[ME_wwwing]

correction - the resolution is ONLY 480 x 320

[ElectronicToys]

Both Macrovision and TI can use laser light sources, the laser attributes should not be applied to either MEMS device.
Questions if lasers are chosen;
-How is laser speckle reduced?
-When will the price of BLUE lasers come down? The price of a blue laser diode is more than the unsubsidized price of a cell phone!

[TechExpert]

Is this a joke? The Optoma projector will be ready for worldwide release in 2009. How can you say they beat Microvision to market?

www.youtube.com/watch?...

[fireball]

i like your publication. i do find it useful. this is the second time seeking alpha has attacked the superior product. aray got it from you a few weeks back. i am curious would aray be a good acquisition for isrg? i noticed cramer does not like either one. did he miss out on the huge gains early investors made? it looks to me like microvision has 4 more very good projects. it is not all about cell phones. do not get me wrong. i do enjoy the summary of the mass media opinions. right or wrong the media can certainly sour the near term prospects of a good company.

[ME_wwwing]

ElectronicToys - the green laser cost more then the blue. and the lasers would need to be spread out to hit the whole DLP display! not good!
Explay uses a De-speckle tech before the light hits the display!
DLP will always need a Focusing Lens to expand the image!

[proudwhitenazi]

Thanks Liam! You are absolutely correct on MVIS!

[ElectronicToys]

ME_wwwing - Are you sure about the cost of blue lasers?
Explay uses lasers for red and green but a LED for blue in
the products I can find.
images.pennnet.com/art...
At DigiKey; blue laser =$1,135, blue led =$7.21,
(The led has 10x flux.
Prices are Q=1 volume customers will pay much less)
Seems like MVIS could also use blue LED.

[octoconch]

Finally, a break in the monotiny. Thanks for the entertaining read. I love fiction. I was starting to get bored with the lack of MVIS news.

[ME_wwwing]

ElectronicToys - correct on Explay's Blue LED.
from the CC's MVIS has said several times the only problem is the cost and supply of GLasers! no Blue Laser problems. they might cost but volume will change the price on everything inside MVIS's IPM. i have been watching to see if Explay has updated since Blue Laser are used in Blueray systems! they have been silent for a few months now!
Light Blue Optics uses RGB Lasers for their projector! but they have been silent for a while too!
Sven who puts CC into text and has allowed us to post the CC in text on our investor board.
we have a lot of info on the this board!
groups.yahoo.com/group.../

[picoman]

Check out this Popular Mechanics from June 18, 2008
www.popularmechanics.c......

This morning Texas Instruments (TI) announced that it’s bringing the next generation of handheld displays to market with the Optoma Pico, a gadget it claims will be the tiniest projector ever made commercially available. Traveling salesmen everywhere, rejoice!

When TI showed off its handheld projector technology at this year’s Consumer Electronics Show in January, the company attracted wide eyes and big prizes alike for a prototype device stored in a mock cellphone (and a 3D TV). But the technology, which shrinks TI’s breakthrough Digital Light Processing (DLP) chip and its micromirror mechanics by a couple form factors, live solely in concept form, with no manufacturing partners confirmed—or even really imagined for the near future.

That changes today. TI has taken the wraps off a sooner-than-expected release of the Pico, which will be built in a partnership with the Taiwanese projector company Optoma. The product is slated to hit shelves in Europe and Asia by the end of this year, and should make its way to the United States in 2009. The Pico’s launch price will be under $300, according to Frank Moizio, TI’s business manager for emerging markets.

Although most of the speculation around the gadget has centered around it being integrated into mobile devices such as cellphones and portable media players, the Optoma Pico will be a stand-alone projector. That doesn’t mean it won’t be able to hook up to and project video and slides from many devices, likely including the Apple iPod, PlayStation Portable, ultraportable laptops and plenty of cellphones (maybe even Android-enabled ones?).

According to Moizio, the Pico will provide a clear projection onto an 8.5x11-in. piece of paper for most indoor lighting situations. It’s no home movie theater, but the image will be big enough to share your portable media player content easily with friends.

The battery-powered Pico should manage one to two hours of battery life, which TI reps assured us would be long enough to last through most movies. We’ll certainly have to test it out in the coming weeks for a final answer on that one.

To be sure, TI isn’t the only company jumping on the microprojector trend. Redmond, Wash.-based startup Microvision gave us some hands-on time with a similar, even tinier gadget at CES that uses tiny lasers to scan and project its video. Back then, Microvision told us that to expect its device to hit the market by the end of this year as an add-on for mobile phones, DVD players and gaming consoles. Will 2009 be the year of the handheld TV? Let’s hope so. —Seth Porges

[picoman]

Liam Mulcahy has decided that MVIS has the best product. He appears to be attempting to drive down the MVIS stock so he can get in and by as many shares as he can for as cheap as he can. Nice try Liam Mulcahy, better luck next time.

[bigbonesmagoo]

Congratulations Liam,

Your only supporter goes by the name proudwhitenazi--you should be very proud of your work....

[luderella]

...Microvision bulls will argue that the need for a focus wheel makes the Texas Instruments solution inferior.

This statement is true if we isolate the product usage to very dark rooms where the projector is stable on a surface. Unfortunately, the usage models that phone makers and carriers are looking for are primarily business settings (ie, slightly dimmed lights) and impromptu adolescent use (mobile and outdoors)...

thats funny. no its plain stupid. whats the point of this statement?? having no focus wheel is what oems are asking for? OMG. and this guy is working for a hedge fund?

btw. TI has never shown a demonstration with video content. wondering why? because the device would be sucking power like a tv set and getting hotter than a toaster.

[JohnCarter]

Wow, you can almost smell the panic. This is one of the funniest articles I've read in a while. Huge misrepresentations that are easy to disprove, misspellings, poor grammar. When did seekingalpha become the equivalent of an unmoderated Yahoo! investor message board? Too funny.

[HAB]

I can't believe the ignorance here. A focus wheel is somehow not inferior? C'mon, name one serious consumer that would opt for a focus wheel over infinite focus. The teen market alone would ridicule any lame-arse that dared show off photos in the hallway with something that required them to keep focusing every few seconds as they moved - all the while being upstaged by those with infinite focus.

Until both are on the market, how can anyone say DLP is cheaper? I can't believe some of the early LED entrants with $400 price points.

An no OEM in the world thinks business users are the only primary target audience - to say that shows a complete lack of research. Wait, maybe that is the primary target for LED systems that can't embed into higher volume cell phones and devices for audiences with higher quality expectations.

Further - do you really think leading-edge companies like Apple would dare use something like a focus wheel when infinite focus is available? How un-chic and un-cool that product would be - maybe the Zune would use a focus wheel, but I'm pretty sure you'll never see one on any iPod with a projector embedded in it.

[globalview99]

Competition is good; it keeps the process honest.

In this case the consumer will eventually decide the best product in terms of availability, quality and price. If TI's pico is first to market and is eventually eclipsed by MVIS' product, in terms of projection quality and focus wheel issues, the consumer will recognize that too. My sense is that picture quality is an acceptabe trade-off for mobility, compactness and cost.

What's not an acceptable trade-off is a cumbersome focus wheel. If we've learned anything from Apple, its that if a mobile device is going to be cool, it must be easy to operate. The focus wheel will be tolerable until MVIS' cooler pico is brought to market, then it crashes.

So thanks Liam for the good research and hopefully it'll bring the price of MVIS down so we can accululate more at a better price.

[fatwollit]

Well, Mr. Mulcahy, it's the day after your article appeared and Microvision is down 70 cents, a twenty per cent drop, so it seems that your effort to aid your hedge fund's aims did the trick. At least, I don't see any other news so must assume that the timing is more than just coincidence. I'd be more upset if I thought the drop was anything more than temporary. I wonder what your hedge fund's target was? And I wonder how much the drop would have been had you placed your disclosure statement at the head of your article instead of at the end. You know, the disclosure statement that read "Disclosure: Author works in a hedge fund that is short Microvision".

[amusedobserver]

He needs one more disclosure: was his hedge fund covering its MVIS shorts on the high-volume decline he generated?

[Lowcarb]

I don't think much of MVIS. Looks like an MDTL to me. Slip after slip. No sales, interesting gizmo.

But I think less of Mr. Mulcahy. He contributed once 6 months ago but still no Bio. I have to think that this post is less about the merits of MVIS and more about the desires of Mulcahy.

I've traded MVIS in the past. Don't have a position now.
I've got no problem being a short or a long but let's try to be honest and not self serving.

My analysis of MVIS indicates that their concept is superior to TI. It will scale better, so I think Liam is wrong on that part of his analysis.

I do agree that management has lost credibility with their delays and slips. They don't have a solid enough track record to make we want to take a chance on them.

[rf_lab]

Liam was supposed to present his Biography over half a year ago.
SA just published another article by Liam and they still haven't presented the readers with his biography.

Six months is more than enough time for a professional to abbreviate their resume and e-mail it in. Even a grade-school student can get a biography done in one semester.

What does that tell a researcher about the usefulness of Seeking Alpha?

[Rit Tracer]

Liam's "article" shows the same pattern as his "article" on FTEK back in December. He times his presentation as the stock starts a downswing or is losing momentum and penetrates its 20 day simple moving average. If he works for a "group", then you can probably expect more of the same in days coming. He may possibly post his short ideas and long ideas using different names.

[CBL]

A negative comment by a mysterious guy from an undisclosed hedgefund that is short on Microvision... sounds a little self serving. Nice try though. TI's product is a dud compared to MVIS. Bringing junk to the market first may help TI initially, but the market will "see the light" with MVIS.

[JohnCarter]

The author says in the fourth paragraph: "The TI/Optoma solution is more than twice as bright as Microvision’s." Below is a link to a PC magazine video from CES where a Microvision employee states that the SHOW prototype's output is 'about 10 lumens.' I can't find the link at the moment, but I have seen a video review of the Optima projector in the past couple of days that stated its output was also ten lumens. If the author of this piece can't show evidence that TI's projector is capable of an output around 20 lumens, then this statement (among others) is demonstrably false and misleading.

www.youtube.com/watch?...

[JohnCarter]

In the third paragraph of this article, the author says: "Texas Instruments just beat Microvision to the market (by at least 6 months)." If showing a demonstration unit at an industry conference is the benchmark, then didn't Microvision's appearance at CES 2008 actually beat TI/Optoma by six months?

If having the product available for worldwide sale is the benchmark, as you can see in the following video, an Optoma representative is claiming that the unit will be available in early 2009 (or in limited markets, some unspecified about of time before early 2009).

www.youtube.com/watch?...

The CEO of Microvision, on the last quarterly conference call stated that the production version of the SHOW would be available in the first quarter of 2009, and limited units might be available in the 4th quarter of 2008.

No matter how you try to spin those facts, the statement "Texas Instruments just beat Microvision to the market (by at least 6 months)." is demonstrably false and misleading.

Shall I continue, or are people starting to get the idea?

It's okay to have a different opinion. It is not okay to have a different set of facts.

[JohnCarter]

Found the link substantiating the 10 lumen brightness for the Optoma pico. Unless my math is really getting poor, 10 lumens is not 'more than twice as bright' as... 10 lumens.

"Optoma showcased what it calls the world’s first pico projector. The extremely light and small pico projector uses a LED for the light source and is based on Texas Instruments’ DLP technology. The battery lasts just one hour on a complete charge so it is best used for short presentations and small spaces. The tiny projector emits 10 Lumens of brightness according to the company"

source: www.displayblog.com/20.../

[JohnCarter]

Now that I have pointed out two flat out lies in this piece, how long will it take Seeking Alpha to pull the article and issue a retraction? Keeping this article up when key facts have been demonstrated to be false is tantamount to participating in the fraud.

I'll give this some time and then come back later so that we can talk about the "essentially equal" color gamut and this comment: "its light engine is no larger than Microvision’s (implying viability for embedded handset designs)."

[ME_wwwing]

lets look at a few statements

1. MVIS management has been promising to deliver a projector that will ultimately fit inside a cell phone. Texas Instruments just beat Microvision to the market (by at least 6 months).

where is the cell phone projector sizes?
Optoma's projector - Dimensions : W50mm x D103mm x H15mm
yet the only thickness i can find on MVIS"s projector "only" is: 40mm x 20mm x H7mm
so if its only 7mm and we add a few mm to package. we don't end up with H15mm!
the Show is said to be the same size as a PDA. are PDS'a 15mm thick?


2. The TI/Optoma solution is more than twice as bright as Microvision’s
and later
OEMs a viable roadmap to deliver massive quantities of brighter (2x-10x brighter)

so which is it?
also note that 3M's projector is using the same LEDs and only get a 50" dia.
and they are not 2x brighter then MVIS's projector.

3. Additionally, the TI solution delivers a much more stable image when held in a hand. ..... then states later "impromptu adolescent use (mobile and outdoors)"

what kind of statements are these?
if there's a problem sitting still then who would want to invest in either stock or buy one!
and focusing does matter in "impromptu adolescent use" on the move! Big difference to continue to focus on while moving OUTDOORS.

4. thus isn’t subject to the same regulatory safety restrictions that lasers fall under. This means that, Texas instruments is able to offer OEMs a viable roadmap to deliver massive quantities of brighter (2x-10x brighter) and cheaper pico projectors than Microvision could ever theoretically deliver with lasers.

what does safety have to do with delivering massive quantities? misleading misleading
ya think Corning would build a Laser that would cause safety concerns. does it make since Corning spending millions to put out lasers that won't sell!

5. This statement is true if we isolate the product usage to very dark rooms where the projector is stable on a surface. Unfortunately, the usage models that """&quo... makers and carriers are looking""&qu... for are primarily business settings (ie, slightly dimmed lights) and impromptu adolescent use (mobile and outdoors).

wrong wrong wrong - from MVIS's CC we find major cell phone companies have set down requirements for cell phones embedding projector.
A. 7mm or thinner.
B. run time must be 2 hrs.
C. carriers don't make cell phones!

i think there is a SVGA resolution. NOT DLP's 480 x 320. MVIS's is WVGA 848x480 with DVD colors.

[octoconch]

You said...

"Microvision just ran out of time

Microvision needed to have the OEM order in hand for Q4:08 shipments in order raise cash in Q3:08"

Totally false statement. Never, and I repeat, NEVER has that been stated.

Alex: We trying to get firm commitments in Q3 so we have to do a lot of leg work at the end of Q2 and early Q3 to start getting this feedback, because that’s an essential component of the go to market strategy and again to date we have all reasons to believe that we’re moving in the right direction. Obviously to your question, would we benefit from more units at this time? Absolutely.

Joel: But I mean of course you’re using your cash relatively wisely but I don’t expect your operating expense will decline considering you’re going into these launch modes so obviously execution is a critical factor because inevitably you’ll drain that cash, so but obviously we see some significant traction that will hopefully support this stock.

Alex: Fair statement, you know we finished this quarter with 30 million dollars and we feel we have a sufficient amount to get us through the year. Each dollar is spent only on the critical activity; it’s not wasted on any other item. You’re right. You can see that first quarter of this year the operating expenses are higher than they were a year ago, but not much higher from the 4th quarter and this is part of our evolution as a company, any company goes from being a technology company to becoming a products company they need to invest into additional R&D resources, that’s familiar with high volume manufacturing, you need to get strategic sourcing team in place, you need to get the right (?) team that can close some of these remaining contracts.



The truth... from Q1 CC

Brian: Great, great, and then just one final one and this was an issue raised by another caller earlier. It’s fairly obvious you guys are going to have to raise money, whether that’s through debt or doing a share offering, I’m curious if you hit your targets and if you get the reception that you’re hoping for, how much money do you think you’re going to have to raise in the 3rd quarter in order to facilitate building up your initial accessory products.

Alex: Brian, this is a topic we don’t intend to discuss in much detail because we can’t we’re continuing to reviewing these options that are available to us, and we intend to raise money when market conditions are favorable and when it’s the right time for the company.

Brian: Obviously you’re not going to wait until you run out of cash, and you’re hoping to manufacture these things for introduction early next year, which gives us an obvious time frame in terms of when you have to raise money, I’m just curious as to how much money it’s going to take for you guys to get the initial volumes up and running.

Jeff: How much it’s going to take will depend obviously on the ramp, the access to other working capital lines, how much our suppliers and customers finance that, so that’s something we are continually monitoring and modeling and evaluating as we go through time.


Joe: To your previous caller was asking about raising and mentioned 3rd quarter and you’re going to ramp this thing up. Not to put thoughts in his mind or read his mind, but sounded like he was sort of convinced that you guys were going to have to foot the bill for the entire manufacturing process which that never seemed to be the case for me. You mentioned contract manufacturers you mentioned partners, so the dollars you raise are not, am I assuming correctly, that you are not going to be spending the entire amount on manufacturing you will have some partners.

Alex: No nothing has changed Joe, you know, we still partition and try to distribute cost around our architected supply chain and the strategic partners are defined by their contribution to this common cause so we don’t treat people or supply chain players as pure contract manufacturers which is the model where we have to pay for everything. We’re given certain advantages first market movers then to certain market share projection guarantees in exchange for them coughing up some of the dough to cover these expenses.

Joe: Are any of these partners of yours potential sources for your next capital raise>

Alex: Good question, I can’t give you the answer. (BTW, Alex giggled during this answer)

[User 215198]

I think its terrible to riun a companies name for your own benefit. The writer should face severe repercussions for printing this article. As a shareholder I am suffering for there benefit.

[JohnCarter]

Pending the results of Seeking Alpha's investigation (which I presume won't take very long, considering the evidence). I hope that we will soon see a retraction (in this space and submitted to all of the news sources who carried or commented on the original article), an explanation of how this happened, an apology, and a change in policy (perhaps requiring posters to use a verified name and company name) to prevent this type of dishonest manipulation from happening again in the future.

I will say that it is encouraging to see that the article was removed before the start of trading today. Hopefully, Seeking Alpha's follow-through on this issue will be similarly encouraging.

[Daniel Jacome]

an article about this whole fiasco appeared on Clusterstock.com today

www.clusterstock.com/2...

[Daniel Jacome]

and here is what BRIEFING.com sent out to premium subscribers:

----------------------...

Microvision: Color on today's stock action (3.00 -0.40) : Barron's Online reports "the co's shares are sharply lower this morning on a highly negative post about the co on the investment blog aggregation site Seeking Alpha. The post is attributed to someone named Liam Mulcahy, who is described as someone who "works in a hedge fund that is short Microvision." The hedge fund isn't named; and I can't find anything else on the author. Anyone know who he is? Microvision is developing pico projectors, which as the name implies are very small projectors designed to be embedded in small devices. A projector company called Optoma last week unveiled a pico projector using rival technology from Texas Instruments (TXN). The post asserts that Microvision's own projectors, known as The Show, continue to fall behind schedule, and that Microvision is facing a cash crunch. That all may well be true, but the fuzzy ID for Mulcahy - and the willingness of Seeking Alpha to post material of unclear origin - makes me a little queasy."