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Executives

Craig E. Gosselin - Senior Vice President of Human Resources, General Counsel and Secretary

Gary H. Schoenfeld - Chief Executive Officer, President and Director

Michael W. Kaplan - Chief Financial Officer, Principal Accounting Officer and Senior Vice President

Analysts

Adrienne Tennant - Janney Montgomery Scott LLC, Research Division

David M. King - Roth Capital Partners, LLC, Research Division

Jane Thorn Leeson - KeyBanc Capital Markets Inc., Research Division

Chris Armbruster - B. Riley & Co., LLC, Research Division

Andrew Burns - D.A. Davidson & Co., Research Division

Mitchel J. Kummetz - Robert W. Baird & Co. Incorporated, Research Division

Alex Pham - Wedbush Securities Inc., Research Division

Paul Lejuez - Nomura Securities Co. Ltd., Research Division

Pacific Sunwear of California (PSUN) Q2 2012 Earnings Call August 22, 2012 4:30 PM ET

Operator

Good afternoon. My name is Pia, and I will be the conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Second Quarter 2012 Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] Thank you. I would now turn the conference over to Mr. Craig Gosselin. Please go ahead, sir.

Craig E. Gosselin

Good afternoon, everyone, and welcome to the Pacific Sunwear conference call announcing our fiscal second quarter 2012 financial results. My name's Craig Gosselin, senior Vice President, General Counsel and Head of Human Resources. This call is being recorded, and the playback will be available starting today, approximately 2 hours after the call through midnight on August 29, 2012. It can be accessed at (855) 859-2056 or (404) 537-3406 passcode 17924719. The call will also be archived on our website at www.pacsun.com through midnight on November 28, 2012.

Your speakers today are Gary Schoenfeld, our CEO; and Michael Kaplan, our CFO. [Operator Instructions]

Before I turn the call over to Gary, I'd like to note the statements and discussions during today's call will contain forward-looking information about our future financial performance and prospects. Our actual results could differ materially from those contained in our forward-looking statements. Risks and uncertainties that could cause our business and financial results to differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements are included in our Fiscal 2011 Form 10-K and in subsequent filings we've made with the SEC, as well as in the earnings press release we issued today.

These documents can be found in the Investor Relations section on our website at pacsun.com. All information discussed on the call today is as of today's date, August 22, 2012. Pacific Sunwear undertakes no duty to update this information to reflect future events or circumstances.

This call, the webcast and its replay are the property of PacSun. It is not for rebroadcast or use by any other party without the prior written consent of PacSun. With that said, I'll now turn the call over to Gary.

Gary H. Schoenfeld

Thank you, Craig. Good afternoon, everyone, and thank you for joining us this afternoon.

On our last conference call for the first quarter, we talked about progress we had achieved in all 5 key metrics of positive sales comps and improved merchandise margins, operating expenses, inventory management and non-GAAP EPS. These positive trends continued and, in total, were even better in Q2.

While the retail landscape remains intensely competitive, I believe the progress we have made in the first half of the year reflects the significant changes we have made to the business, and we continue to be focused on 3 main tenets of our strategy: authentic brands, trend-right merchandising and reestablishing a distinctive customer connection that once again makes PacSun synonymous with the creativity, optimism and diversity that is uniquely California. Michael will speak to more of the financial details, but let me briefly touch on a few of the highlights.

Comp store sales for Q2 were up 5%. Men's comps were up 7%, which represents our biggest increase in Men's since 2004, and Women's continued to improve with the 2% comp coupled with better margins. Our e-com business also performed well with a 15% increase.

Merchandise margins were up 260 basis points, and inventory at the end of the quarter was down 6% on a comp basis. And both GAAP and non-GAAP EPS improved significantly with non-GAAP EPS, a loss of $0.08 versus $0.17 a year ago.

Newer emerging brands such as Diamond, Crooks and Castles, Young & Reckless and Modern Amusement are leading the growth in our Men's business, coupled with Vans and Nike, which are anchoring our men's footwear business. Roxy and Billabong continue to be important brands in our Women's business. Yet in this fast-changing world of Instagram and Pinterest, it is increasingly clear that trend-right product is absolutely essential to success with our target 17- to 24-year-old female customers.

We continue to receive positive feedback from customers, brands and our own sales associates in response to the rollout of our Golden State of Mind brand positioning. Customers are experiencing our brand and our unique filter of California lifestyle through multiple touch points in our stores and online, and we believe this will continue to be a critical differentiator for PacSun as we reestablish an emotional connection with customers across the entire United States.

We know our customers are living online, and we are identifying the most effective ways to connect with them, looking for places where PacSun can live in their digital world. As some of you may recall, we rolled out gsom.com, a new domain that embodies the PacSun California lifestyle earlier in the second quarter. As PacSun's highly interactive brand experienced site, gsom.com allows the user to experience all things California in 6 key categories, including fashion, music, art, entertainment, action sports, and of course, with our brands.

Complementing gsom.com, we also launched the Golden State of Mind events series contest, which was initiated in stores, as well as online. We are also working now on a new e-commerce platform, which will include improved navigation, a more streamlined checkout process, a chance to compare products in a realtime product review. It will also leverage social media channels, which will bring PacSun to our customers' online conversation and give us the capability to implement other ways of creating deeper customer connections that we will talk more about in the future. This new online activity will be completed and ready for holiday.

With respect to Q3, similar to what other retailers have indicated, our guidance reflects a softer start to back-to-school. Whether this has been due to the Olympics, a continued shift to a later start to back-to-school or some other factors, I can't say for sure. But we have seen an improvement over the past week and believe we remain on track for our fourth consecutive quarter of year-over-year improvement in our bottom line results.

So before turning the call over to Michael, I will add, like I have on most of these calls, that we remain quite cognizant that we have a lot still to do ahead of us. I believe the progress we have made over the past several months is a strong testament to the perseverance of our team, the new leadership and the talent that has joined us and the new culture that we are creating at PacSun.

I'm excited about this new energy and spirit, coupled with our clear strategic focus on authentic brands, on trend merchandising and reestablishing PacSun's brand identity synonymous with California's lifestyle, which includes the continued strong influence of skate, surf and snow that has been such an integral part of our 30-year heritage.

I will now turn the call over to Michael who will speak more specifically to our Q2 results and Q3 outlook.

Michael W. Kaplan

Thanks, Gary, and good afternoon, everyone.

Today, I will discuss our Q2 2012 operating results, and then close with comments on our Q3 2012 financial outlook.

Our fiscal 2012 second quarter financial results were as follows.

Total net sales from continuing operations were $210 million this year versus $201 million last year, primarily driven by our plus 5% same-store sales increase in the second quarter. This marks our highest total sales comp in the second quarter since 2004.

During the second quarter, we closed 3 stores and opened 1 store, ending the quarter with a total of 727 core and outlet stores, versus 821 a year ago. We are still on track to close approximately 100 stores in Q4 and end the year with approximately 625 stores.

Certainly, one of the highlights of the quarter was delivering gross margin from continuing operations as a percentage of net sales at approximately 27%, which marks a 390 basis point improvement over the same period a year ago.

Contributing to the improved margin was an approximately 268 basis point increase in merchandise margins, combined with a decrease in other costs including store occupancy and distribution, which drove the remaining 130 basis point improvement.

As of the end of Q2, total inventory was down approximately 11% compared to the last year, which translates to a minus 6% on a comparable store basis.

SG&A expenses from continuing operations, which included store level asset impairment charges of $1.1 million and the write-off of obsolete store fixtures of $0.9 million, were approximately $64 million or 30% of net sales for Q2 as compared to 32% as a percentage of net sales for the same period a year ago.

We continue to actively manage our overhead costs and remain pleased with how these trends align with our declining store count. We recorded an income tax provision of $0.2 million for the quarter, which reflects the continuing impact of the valuation allowance against our deferred tax assets.

On a GAAP basis, our loss from continuing operations for the quarter was $18 million or a loss of $0.26 per share. Excluding store closure related charges of approximately $0.1 million, and a current period loss on our derivative liability of approximately $8 million and using a normalized annual income tax rate of approximately 37%, our loss from continuing operations for the quarter on a non-GAAP basis was approximately $6 million or a loss of $0.08 per share versus our non-GAAP loss of approximately $11 million or a loss of $0.17 per share last year. This favorability is a direct result of delivering comparable sales, which exceeded the high end of our guidance range, improved gross margin and reductions in our managed spend.

We are also pleased with the fact that we were able to generate approximately $18 million of positive cash flow from operations in Q2 as compared to negative $8 million in the same period a year ago.

We ended Q2 2012 with $35 million in cash compared with $13 million in Q2 of 2011 and did not have any borrowings on our credit facility in the quarter.

Let's now turn to our Q3 2012 financial outlook.

Our sales comp guidance for Q3 is a negative 2% to a plus 2%. We are targeting our gross margin rate, including buying, occupancy and distribution costs, to be in the range of 25% to 28% versus 24% in Q3 of last year. We expect SG&A expenses to be in the range of $62 million to $64 million.

Assuming a normalized annual income tax rate of approximately 37%, this translates to a non-GAAP net loss per share from continuing operations of $0.08 to flat for the quarter compared with a net loss per share from continuing operations of $0.11 last year.

Our non-GAAP net loss per share from continuing operations guidance also excludes the quarterly impact of any change in the fair value of the derivative liability due to the inherently variable nature of this financial instrument.

Operator, we will now open up the call for questions.

Question-and-Answer Session

Operator

[Operator Instructions] The first question will come from Adrienne Tennant with Janney Capital Market.

Adrienne Tennant - Janney Montgomery Scott LLC, Research Division

Gary, I was wondering if you could talk about this notion of a softer start to back-to-school. We've heard that from a couple of retailers in the teen space, but then a couple of others have actually talked about, sort of, when they are very, very promotional and sharper on price points. And I think you know I'm talking about Eagle and Abercrombie. Do you think that their focus on denim and the really sharp price points there are, sort of, taking away on whole from many of the other retailer -- teen retailers in this space? If you can start with that, that will be great.

Gary H. Schoenfeld

As I said, I don't think we have a crystal clear answer in terms of exactly what's went on. And I think the most significant part for us is the improvement we've seen over the past week. So whether that's the Olympics or other things contributing to that, I can't say. But once the Olympics ended, we've certainly noticed the difference, and I suspect we're not alone.

As to the second part, though, of your question, in particular, competitors and pricing strategies, there's no question denim is a critical item here at back-to-school. And there's no question that price promotion matters. We're seeing encouraging trends in our own Denim business, so I can't comment on the rest. But we acknowledge them as important players. They're very much on our radar screen, and I think we're a bit on their radar screen as well, which is not so bad. So I don't know that I can give you any clear answers to your question, but that's kind of my comment.

Adrienne Tennant - Janney Montgomery Scott LLC, Research Division

Okay, great. And then any color on perhaps comp progression, maybe trends coming out of the quarter in July? Do you have the comp metrics, AUR, UPT, a number of transactions? And then finally, for Mike, if you could just comment on any longer-term path to profitability, how we should think about that? Obviously, I'm not pinpointing you at any point in time, but just it seems like you are making progress toward that. If you can give us any color, texture on that, that you're thinking about would be great.

Gary H. Schoenfeld

Well, we think about it a lot, and we look forward to it as you do, but we're not going to comment beyond the third quarter. In terms of underneath what's driving sales, AUR is the biggest driver of sales. And I think those are kind of the key things that you're asking about.

Michael W. Kaplan

Yes, it's been a consistent trend, AUR up and transaction slightly down.

Operator

The next question will come from Dave King with Roth Capital Partner.

David M. King - Roth Capital Partners, LLC, Research Division

I guess just trying to keep it to one question here, the one I'm most interested in at this point is, your competitors, I think, have a little bit of maybe a different merchandising strategy than you guys have had historically in terms of micro merchandising before. But talking to people out in the market, you're hearing a lot of positive things about your guys' merchandising efforts, and I'm just wondering if you guys -- if you've made any changes on that side and doing more regional buys, and just how we should think about that and the plans there going forward?

Gary H. Schoenfeld

Well, I think there's several factors contributing to it. I think on the men's side, the biggest change, and we've been consistent, but I think it's getting more and more traction, has been our commitment to brands and -- both within the more heritage brands like Hurley, and Volcom and Fox that continue to be significant. But as I indicated, newer brands joining PacSun, and we've had some really, I think, encouraging conversations at trade shows over the last few weeks. So I think stepping back on Men's, really, our recommitment to brands has been the biggest driver. In the Women's side, in the 2 years since Christine has joined to lead Women's, it has been a profound change on almost all levels. And she has dramatically strengthened her team. We've gotten clear that this -- the Women's market requires the ability to really identify trends and deliver great execution against those trends. And then with in-store specific merchandising, next part of your question, yes, I think we have gotten better at how we segment between store groups. But all of that, I think we can continue to improve upon as we go forward. And then probably the fourth element that's common to both genders has been just an overall effort towards reducing SKU count, and therefore, making the stores easier to shop and easier to showcase key brands on the Men's side and key fashion ideas, as well as critical essentials business on the Women's side.

David M. King - Roth Capital Partners, LLC, Research Division

So is it fair to think then that you're not -- no longer doing the buys for the entire season across the country and then allocating it by kind of action sports market versus progressive markets, et cetera? And it's more...

Gary H. Schoenfeld

No, I mean that's still part of our framework in terms of how we think about differences in customer preferences. But it certainly has evolved, I think, in a good way and continues to evolve.

Operator

The next question will come from Jane Thorn Leeson with Keybanc Capital Market.

Jane Thorn Leeson - KeyBanc Capital Markets Inc., Research Division

I was just curious, how much do newer brands represent as a part -- as a percentage of your total store? And how does that compare to the past?

Gary H. Schoenfeld

Not going to get into the specifics in breaking those brands out and sometimes even amongst ourselves what exactly is a new brand versus not, but I think you see it in the stores. I think you see the presence of brands that weren't in PacSun 18, 24 months ago, having a much bigger footprint. And as I say, having just come back from Magic & Project yesterday in Las Vegas, there's additional brands that we think fit well within our California lifestyle and the heritage of PacSun that we look forward to adding going forward. But I'm going to refrain from getting into the specifics.

Jane Thorn Leeson - KeyBanc Capital Markets Inc., Research Division

And also, how is -- if you can give us a little more color on how your Juniors business is going?

Gary H. Schoenfeld

So, again, for Q2, we indicated, Men's at a plus 7 comp and Women's at a plus 2 comp. Margins were up nicely in both genders. So we continue to be pleased with the progress in both and are getting I think more and more particularly on the female side of the business. We're aging up that customer, and I think bringing in a new customer, and I think they're beginning to recognize PacSun as a very legitimate fashion destination for them. And that's probably still where we have the most work to do in terms of changing perception, but excited about Christine, the direction that she's taking the Women's business, the talent that she has gotten to join on the Women's team, and I remain optimistic that we're going to get better and better in that part of our business.

Jane Thorn Leeson - KeyBanc Capital Markets Inc., Research Division

My last question is just on that Women's part. What areas do you have the biggest opportunity to improve upon?

Gary H. Schoenfeld

I think what we've seen fairly consistently over the last few quarters, and I don't think this is unique to us, is a strength in bottoms. And I think that the Tops part of the business and fashion Tops, that is a fast-moving and price competitive part of the market. So that's probably our biggest challenge or opportunity is to refine how we merchandise our tops and get more consistent performance there.

Operator

The next question will come from Jeff Van Sinderen with B. Riley & Co.

Chris Armbruster - B. Riley & Co., LLC, Research Division

This is Chris Armbruster on for Jeff. I know you guys gave the back-to-school indication of where that's going, but especially, towards the end of the quarter, is there any more granularity you could give on where the strength is coming from that you saw towards the end of the quarter?

Gary H. Schoenfeld

No, I mean -- I don't -- we don't speak to any particular period within the quarter. And for us, the end of the quarter is very much transitioned from summer merchandise into setting up for the beginning of back-to-school. So there's not a lot of insight for us really to share in that regard.

Chris Armbruster - B. Riley & Co., LLC, Research Division

Okay. And what about the promotional programs that you have for back-to-school this year maybe versus last year? How do you -- what's worked, and how do you think about that within the context of the competitive promotional backdrop in general?

Gary H. Schoenfeld

What we're doing this year is pretty comparable to what we had done last year. There certainly are some very aggressive promotions out there, but we feel like we've taken the right course for us. As we continue to turn our business, we remain very disappointed about inventory and also about driving margin improvement. So when we look at kind of the total P&L around sales, margin, comp, inventory productivity, we continue to like how our business is unfolding.

Chris Armbruster - B. Riley & Co., LLC, Research Division

Okay. And just one more. The general merchandise manager on the Men's side, can you talk a little bit more about the change there and what prompted that?

Gary H. Schoenfeld

I think as you can appreciate it, I don't like to make a lot of comments about changes that I've made other than I have a lot of confidence in Alfred, who is now leading our Men's business. I think he really gets our end customer, and he similarly gets and shares a deep passion for brands and what brands mean at PacSun. So I'm excited about having Alfred in that role and continuing to build on what has been a good Men's business for us in the first half of the year.

Operator

Your next question will come from Andrew Burns with D.A. Davidson.

Andrew Burns - D.A. Davidson & Co., Research Division

On the product margin front, we've seen several quarters now of year-over-year improvement. And I was wondering how much opportunity do you see for improving the merchandise margins longer term within the context of as you look at the gross margin improvement opportunity, it’s obviously occupancy, expense leverage is a big component there. But wondering about the long-term product margin opportunity within that.

Gary H. Schoenfeld

It's a great question. I'm not going to give you a great answer. But it's something that, just to my comment on the last question, merchandise margin is something hugely important to us, and we track very carefully. So we certainly look forward to further improvement in margin in the third quarter as we indicated in our guidance. And like any retailer, we'd like to think that you can improve margins over the long term, but I'm not in a position to get more specific than that.

Andrew Burns - D.A. Davidson & Co., Research Division

Okay. And when you look at the gross margin guidance for the third quarter, the 25% to 28% range, something you can help us better understand what's incorporated into that, with the 25%, the low-end sort of factor in a deterioration or intensification of the promotional environment, or would the promotional activity have to hold constant to hit the high end? And any color there would be helpful.

Gary H. Schoenfeld

I don't think I can provide you more than -- just the guidance kind of speaks for itself. We've got 2 months left to go. Tell me if October is going to get early snowstorms, late snowstorms or continues to be a drought, and all those things play into how the quarter ends up. So I can't give you any more color than that.

Andrew Burns - D.A. Davidson & Co., Research Division

Okay. And the last, if you could just comment on the strength in online sales of up 15%, what's driving that growth in that channel?

Gary H. Schoenfeld

Well, I think it's a reflection of, I'd like to believe, at least, greater affinity towards PacSun to begin with. Secondly, strength in our brands and in the assortments in both Men's and Women's. But thirdly, and certainly importantly, I would say is better management of that business. And the team that leads that, with Mondy and the people that she's got working with her, I think we're just getting better at better really understanding what does success look like and what does the customer want in an online experience. So I appreciate that team's efforts and hopeful that we'll continue to see good progress in our online business.

Operator

Your next question will come from Mitch Kummetz with Robert Baird.

Mitchel J. Kummetz - Robert W. Baird & Co. Incorporated, Research Division

Gary, couple of questions. First of all, on your 3Q to date comp, is it positive or negative? I mean it sounds like it's negative given the commentary, but I don't think you said. I know that last quarter, you mentioned that it was positive through the early Q2 to date so...

Gary H. Schoenfeld

It started off negative, and it's gotten better but I'm not going to tell you what it is as of today, but we're right in the mix of another big 2.5 weeks for back-to-school. But it's certainly within the range that we've indicated.

Mitchel J. Kummetz - Robert W. Baird & Co. Incorporated, Research Division

Okay. And then on your comp outlook for the quarter, how do you see that shaking out between traffic and ticket? I'm specially interested in kind of what you're seeing in terms of ASPs on sort of like-for-like product. Are you starting to anniversary some of the price increases that you maybe took last year as you were reacting to higher input costs?

Gary H. Schoenfeld

I think, as Michael indicated, our performance to date has been very consistent, which is higher AUR offsetting a modest decline in traffic. And with regards to our expectations for third quarter, we anticipate those trends continuing.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] The next question will come from Alex Pham with Wedbush Securities.

Alex Pham - Wedbush Securities Inc., Research Division

It's Alex on for Betty Chen. Just again on the soft back-to-school trend so far, I guess for the Q3 guidance, is that inclusive of what you guys have seen? Since I know you've mentioned that maybe since the Olympics and whatnot that there has been a little bit of an uptick. And then also, another question, just quickly on sort of gaining traction in the Men's brand and increasing your commitment to brands. Does that mean that you guys might be pulling back on sort of overall third-party brand or increasing the penetration of third party brands and maybe pulling back on some of the private label brands that you guys are offering?

Gary H. Schoenfeld

So -- I mean with respect to our performance in our guidance, I think we've been very clear and spoken to that in several of the previous questions. We've seen improvements in the business over the last week, and we think we're very much on track for what'll be our fourth consecutive quarter of bottom line improvement, and that feels good to us. As to the Men's business, what we've consistently said is we're going to lead with brands, and we're continuing to see that strategy be successful. And that's probably as much as I can add to amplify that. And by definition, it means that private label on the Men's side of the business is not as big of a driver, but as we go farther into the back half of the year, denim becomes a bigger portion of the business. And as somebody else commented about how promotional denim is in the Mall, that we continue to believe in private label being a big part of our Men's business. But outside of denim and knits, the rest of our Men's business is absolutely driven by brands. And as I say, we're excited about the performance of the brands we have to date. And we also look forward to adding additional brands in the future.

Operator

The next question will come from Paul Lejuez with Nomura.

Paul Lejuez - Nomura Securities Co. Ltd., Research Division

Can you just remind us what the CapEx plans are for this year and how you think about that level going forward? Are you, I guess, starving the stores in some way just to preserve cash at this point, where you're going to have a catch-up to use down the road? And then secondly, on the improvement in sales in the past week, have you guys pulled promotional levers to -- that's kind of supported that and kind of led to that pickup?

Gary H. Schoenfeld

You know, CapEx, I think we've previously indicated or actually as I think about it now, we probably haven't talked about CapEx for the year. So -- but I think at this point, it would be fair to say, we anticipate CapEx comparable to what it was a year ago. And what we believe and what we're hearing from people is they feel like our stores are looking better and better. And where we're making incremental spend decisions, we're trying to touch all stores, and we think we're elevating what the PacSun stores are representing today.

In terms of commenting on the last week, again, we're not going to hang our hat on 1 week. But our overall view is traffic has changed over the past week. And like I say, whether that was correlated to the end of the Olympics or just finally changes in weather or people finally realizing it's time to start really pursuing back-to-school in earnest, we don't know, but we think traffic is the bigger change. And we think we're getting good response to our product as customers are out there more.

Paul Lejuez - Nomura Securities Co. Ltd., Research Division

And you think you guys can continue to do what you want to do at the store level with $13 million, $14 million level of CapEx going forward, or does that need to kick up over time?

Gary H. Schoenfeld

Not prepared to comment on that yet, but I will acknowledge. I think It's a fair question to ask, but can't comment on kind of longer-term real estate strategies at this point in time. But I think it's a fair thing for us to address in the future once our plans frankly become clear.

Operator

There are no further questions at this time. Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for participating in today's conference call. You may now disconnect.

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