Lehman: Solars FSLR and ESLR Have Bright Future

Lehman’s Vishal Shah Monday morning upped his price targets and earnings estimates for both Evergreen Solar (ESLR) and First Solar (FSLR).

• For First Solar, Shah lifted his price target to $335 from $280. He raised his 2008 EPS estimate to $3.05 from $2.80, and for 2009 he goes to $7.20 from $6. “FSLR continues to remain our high conviction idea into Q2 earnings as we expect significant upside to Street estimates from better-than-expected output in Malyasia, gross margin expansion and positive currency impact,” he writes in a research note. “We believe concerns over potential margin pressure and increased competition are unwarranted.” He maintains an Overweight rating on the stock.
• For Evergreen Solar, Shah boosted his price target to $15 from $12. His 2008 EPS estimate is now a loss of 30 cents, versus a loss of 21 cents previously. But his 2009 estimate is now 60 cents, up from 50 cents, and well above the Street at 47 cents. He expects “positive momentum to continue.” He maintains an Equal Weight rating on the stock.

ESLR Monday is up 82 cents, or 7%, at $12.48; FSLR is up $17.55, or 6.5%, to $285.77.

Comments

[Gumby]

Despite all the exciting anticipations about solar stocks, coal stocks is beating solar stocks handily. The coal is already there in the ground for you to dig up with monster equipments that can scoop up a 18 wheeler . With all the global warming flatulence around, we are still unable to displace coal as the leader in the growth on energy supplies not to mention conservation efforts. Coal stocks looks a lot cheaper than solar stocks considering their massive reserves in the ground that will last decades to come....

[Gumby]

If any of you really bother to count dollar for dollar on the investment required to grow solar infrastructure, you will know that we are not spending or investing wisely on solar stocks as our future growing source of energy. The cheapest method to increase energy supplies is by conservation hands down. It is understandable that we want to grow our economy, but the energy supply growth is not the answer to our economic future be it coal or solar or whatever. We will run into energy shortages and we will face no choice other than the conservation route. Dollar for dollar, conservation is the cheapest and fastest route to economic prosperity. It seems that we are not stung painfully hard enough to understand the importance of conservation yet. $4.50 gasoline is not shocking enough to get us going on conservation at all. Numb numb America!

[Gumby]

Americans blew precious dollars on gasoline for their SUVs and PickUps at $4.50. We cuuld have bought fuel efficient cars and use the savings to invest in solar and wind long ago. Now we are scrambling on top of $4.50 gasoline which is a disaster in making... We are making investments in solar and wind on top of peaking gasoline prices that will go down as GM and Ford will make major shifts in car production toward fuel efficiency. We will reduce buying solar and wind equipment after that. Those solar stocks are already at all times high with a lot to show for it yet... Bad planning..

[Gumby]

Oil prices will come down again , I guarantee you... We wil continue producing solar and wind power at much slower pace than anticipated. Coal will cool off but not as severly as solar and wind..

[Gumby]

If you want to buy a 250 watt solar module , it wil cost you $3000 or something.. We will spend through our noses on solar programs so solar will not get big fast enough by any chance. Solar has to come down in costs by order of ten or hundred. Solar must be comparable to our computer industry which came down in costs with increased speed and performance. What remains to be seen is whether solar will continue to improve in efficiency. it is now at 10-20% which is not really efficient. I dont think solar stocks will continue to climb until someone comes up with 50 or 70% in efficiency or better. We will be taking up too much real estate for solar programs even on roofs .. Still too much real estate. We had seen what wind power had done to our countryside. Too much blight!!!!

[Gumby]

We will install and install solar and wind power yet our share of the energy supply will grow so slowly. We will throw in the towel before too long. It is still too expensive!! Our government is spending Social Security dollars to support alternate energy programs and creating jobs .. Our future retirees will be shortchanged a lot!!

[Gumby]

If you asked me which is most sensible to spend dollars on... alternate energy or energy conservation
I would pick energy conservation hands down...
Energy consevation will bring fossil fuel prices down much quicker than alternate energy programs dollar for dollar.
Spend your dollars wisely not feel good mindlessness...
Energy conservation will cut down carbon much more than solar and wind will ever dollar for dollar...

Usually it is free to conserve energy simply by turning it off . There is plenty of opportunities of that much overlooked in so many details everywhere. We are not thinking hard enough...
We just throw dollars at everything to feel better then get in hangover all over again...

Like a drinking binge!!

[Gumby]

Investors only look at earnings and stuff and forget all about the outside circumstances and intangiibles.

[VSD]

Environmental effects of solar are not yet studied. Most solar projects are proof of concept. To make any reliable forecast on solar, the model has to include utilities. The jury is still out on solar.