Last Week in Global IPOs: IPOX Beats Benchmarks Big - Facebook Bullet Dodged

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 |  Includes: FB, FPX, KORS, PSX
by: Josef Schuster

SUMMARY

World-ex China rose during option expiration on a continued decline in global risk and solid U.S. economic and corporate data. The IPOX Indexes were the main beneficiary, strongly outperforming benchmarks across most of the IPOX universe. No significant IPOs priced, traded and scheduled for this week.

HIGHLIGHTS

Key IPOX Indexes record big relative gains across most of the IPOX universe: The IPOX Global 50 (IPGL50), key gauge for the performance of the largest and most successful global IPOs and spin-offs over a four-year rotational cycle, extended the gains from last week, rising +2.05% to +13.09% YTD, outperforming benchmark MSCI World (MXWD) by +134 bps to +444 bps. YTD. By avoiding early inclusion, the IPOX Global 50 (IPGL50) once again dodged the Facebook (FB: -12.65%) bullet, but benefited from big relative moves of some of the other recent key IPOs and spin-offs, including luxury goods maker Michael Kors (KORS: +23.09%) after a big beat in earnings or refiner Phillips 66 (PSX: +6.93%). Recent Malaysian privatization offerings including palm oil maker Felda Global Ventures (FGV MK: -2.50%) and hospital operator IHH Health Care (IHH MK: -1.95%) continued to lag the market. Within the IPOX Regional universe, the IPOX U.S. 100 (ETF: FPX) continued its strong run and extended the relative gain versus the S&P 500 (SPX) for another week, rising +1.71% to +17.58% YTD, +592 bps. more than benchmark S&P 500. At the same time, the narrower and large-cap centric IPOX U.S. 30 (IPXT) rose strongly, but lagged FPX anew. A great week in beleaguered and cheap car maker General Motors (GM: +7.16%) helped, while companies associated with recent corporate equity/debt actions declined anew, including dividend heavy U.S. pipeline operator Kinder Morgan (KMI: -1.21%) and data provider and private-equity backed Nielsen Holdings (NLSN: -0.69%). The IPOX Europe universe recovered for another week, with the broad IPOX Europe 50 (IPXUJPEU: +2.45%) strongly beating the benchmarks. Further gains in embattled Bankia (BKIA SM: +21,49%) supported. Specialty IT Spanish travel reservation systems operator Amadeus IT Holdings (AMS SM: +4.02%) rose strongly one week after a big private placement accounting for 6.7% of its shares outstanding.

Across the developed Asia-Pacific Universe, the IPOX Asia-Pacific 30 (IPTA) extended the two week gain to a massive +4.43% to +17.11% YTD. The index extended the relative gain versus benchmark MSCI Asia-Pacific (MXPC) by a big +165 bps. to +1157 bps. YTD. A huge week in some JP-domiciled portfolio members including embattled IPOX heavyweight Dai-Ichi Life (8750 JP: +10.38%) and a new post-IPO high in snack food maker Calbee (2229 JP: +3.05%) helped to mitigate the impact of the dismal earnings of game maker during the precious week Nexon (3659 JP: -3.72%), while Hong Kong domiciled IPOs rose strongly, including the Macau-domiciled casino operators Wynn Macau (1128 HK: +5.32%), SJM Holdings (880 HK: +6.05%) and Sands China (1928 HK: +8.94%) as well as Baby food and pediatric supplement maker Biostime International (1112 HK: +3.19%). Italian fashion maker and 2011 H.K. IPO Prada (1913 HK: +7.41%) benefited from the earnings beat in Michael Kors (KORS: 23.09%). We expect the big YTD rise in the IPOX Asia-Pacific (IPTA) to support the pricing environment for the massive re-IPO/privatization of Japan Airlines (9201 JP) scheduled for mid-September. Against the global trend, China-linked IPOs weakened with the IPOX China 20 (CNI: -1.68%) losing relative and absolute ground on continued depressed sentiment on the Chinese mainland markets with the Shanghai Composite (SHCOMP: -2.49%) falling sharply on continued gloom over the prospects of economic growth.

· IPOX Long-only Strategy Returns YTD 12:

Ticker (BBG/Reuters) Week Q2 12 YTD 12
IPOX Global 50 (IPGL50) (USD) +2.05% -8.13% +13.09%
MSCI World (MXWD) +0.71% -6.35% +8.65%
IPOX U.S. 100 (IPXO) +1.71% -5.23% +17.58%
IPOX U.S. 30 (IPXT) +1.46% -3.67% +16.98%
S&P 500 (SPX) +0.87% -3.29% +12.66%
IPOX Europe50 (IPXUJPEU) (EUR) +2.45% -10.75% +3.47%
IPOX Europe30 (IXTE) (EUR) +2.76% -12.33% -0.75%
STOXX 50 (SX5P) (EUR) +0.57% -3.16% +8.68%
IPOX Asia-Pacific 30 (IPTA) +2.35% -5.69% +17.11%
MSCI Asia-Pacific (MXPC) +0.70% -6.89% +5.54%
IPOX China 20 (CNI) -1.68% -8.97% -3.20%
Hang Seng Enprs. (HSCEI) -0.75% -10.12% -1.07%
Click to enlarge

Most significant IPOs traded (Week 08/13/12):

Company Ticker Return / IPO (%)
No significant IPOs priced and traded
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No significant IPOs priced and commenced traded during the last week. Manchester United (MANU: -4.14%), last week's key U.S. IPO, closed the first full week of public trading well below its final offerings price.

· The Week ahead - Q4 global IPO pipeline building:

Company Code Country Lead
No significant IPOs expected to priced and trade
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No significant global IPOs are lined up for the upcoming week. Over the medium term (Q4) the global IPO pipeline promises to originate a number of key big brand IPOs, including the spin-off IPO of Pfizer's veterinary business (Zoetis), cosmetics maker Coty, global images originator and distributor Getty Images and the aforementioned re-IPO/privatization of Japan Airlines (9201 JP).

Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.