Prescient Nokia Analyst Turns Bullish on the Stock

Telco uber-analyst Tero Kuittinen from Global Crown Capital Equity Research just pinged me saying he is turning positive on Nokia (NYSE:NOK) here. This comes at a time when the market is turning very negative on the handset industry in general.

To recall, Tero went negative on Nokia back in January, and was about the only analyst spotting the market share erosion in Nokia’s European heartland. You can find his comments here.

Tero is out with a call titled 'Nokia: It is Time to Buy the Stock; Bad News Likely Priced in' noting the company has just started shipping new, radically improved 70 euro and 90 euro models, which should help Nokia extend its low-end market share leadership this summer.

He believes Nokia's strength in developing markets is now being ignored by investors who are now overly focused on the company's troubles in the high end.

Tero also believes Nokia should deliver sterling performance from its portfolio of sub-100 euro models in Q2, and the ongoing, major, low-end product revamp should also help in Q3 and Q4.

He notes he does not want to deemphasize the high end problems Nokia could face in the second half of 2008, but believes that the steep stock price decline now discounts unrealistic margin decline and market share erosion. At this point, he believes Nokia is highly likely to deliver a positive Q2 surprise.

Notablecalls: No one, I mean no one knows Nokia better than Tero. I can say that, as I have followed his calls for years. He went negative on NOK when it was trading in the high $30's back in January and has turned positive here. I think NOK's a buy here. Can't bet against Tero when it comes to Telco.

Calling it Medium-Term Actionable here.

Comments

[samij]

> was about the only analyst spotting the market share erosion in
> Nokia’s European heartland.

could you provide link pointing to nokia's market share erosion in europe other than teros speculation? according to gartner: "Nokia is especially strong in Europe", they also note that it was sonyericsson whose market share eroded.

[HM]

We might see NOK bounce back up to the $31.00 level at best. I simply don't see Toro's bullish bias here. I remain decidely bearish in the near term. Should have sold at $39.00 when my discipline said to do so.

Disclosure - I own 5,000 shares of NOK basis $14.00.

[Lonnie Devereaux]

I think he's right. Nokia could go higher here, unless things don't go well, in which case, it could go lower. Seems that way with a lot of stocks I own. And, regarding Nokia's high end, I had an uncle with that same condition. He adapted by wearing his pants lower, and his belt very tightly secured.

Best of luck to all.
Lonnie D.

[Apostle]

Love that uncle analogy, Lonnie !

[Daniel Jacome]

Avian Securities should have done what they could to keep this guy from fleeing to Global...

[HM]

Near term, NOK confirmed my worst suspicions. A break below $24.00 puts NOK into the dangerous position of potentially returning to trading within the sideways stretch between 2002 and 2007.

Doesn't look good.