Where’s the Bottom for Satellite Radio Stocks? 143 comments
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With Sirius (SIRI) and XM (XMSR) at long term lows, the natural question is, “where is the bottom?”
The answer to that question can take many forms, but something we need to consider is how it is that we got to where we are now.
- The merger process has taken quite a long time, and the uncertainty associated with the long wait has caused the equities to suffer, and the confidence of investors to erode.
- The Wienkes analysis (Goldman Sachs) set a low target for Sirius and XM, and the street reacted by selling off in a substantial manner.
Wienkes carries a “Convicted Sell” on Sirius, the lowest rating offered by the firm. When Wienkes issued his note, he set a $1.00 price target on Sirius as a stand-alone company, and a $1.75 target as a merged company.
Most seem to feel that the merger will pass through the FCC process, so what we are dealing with is the $1.75 price target. Sirius is very close to that target right now. So close, in fact, that we should hear from Wienkes soon. The question is what his opinion will be.
If he wants to keep a “Convicted Sell” on Sirius, then he will have to lower his price target. This puts him in a position of establishing a merged company price target that is getting quite close to his stand-alone target. Most people believe that the merger will deliver synergies, and even Wienkes himself sees synergies. This fact, in my opinion, would limit the level to which Wienkes can maintain a “Convicted Sell”. If he were to maintain that rating, any price target under $1.50 would likely begin to be questioned by the street.
Thus, one possible bottom is $1.50 in my opinion.
The other choice that Wienkes has is to “Upgrade” Sirius to a “Sell” rating. Yes, that would actually be an upgrade from Wienkes. He could establish a lower target with such an upgrade, but at that point the “conviction” of his sell rating would lose some of its power.
Whether people believe it or not, it is clear that Wienkes has the ear of the street. Whether his opinion is truly believed, or simply used by the bears to drive the price down can be debated, but at this point that debate is almost immaterial. This is because it seems likely, and perhaps even logical, that these stocks are near their bottoms.
Now, before people run around thinking that the bottom is in, I would offer a few cautions. Until the merger decision is rendered, there is limited movement in these equities no matter what Wienkes' opinion is. Additionally, these equities seem to be trading on emotion. Certainly there is no guidance yet, and until there is guidance, assumptions can and will be made.
Thus, while we may get an answer to the Wienkes saga, there is still a big factor in that a merger decision has not yet been reached.
If we have seen one thing in SDARS, it is that swings are possible with these stocks. Good news tends to drive things higher than they should, and bad news drives the prices lower than they should. Investors are at a point of deciding what speculation and assumptions to follow, and goals need to be established for short or long term. Investors' strategies need to consider both aspects. There are investors who are in for a long term, and investors that are playing the merger on a short term basis.
What to do???
Watch the sector closely. Watch the merger process. Watch the volume. Establish your goals, and try to understand the volatility that short term traders (buyers and sellers) will bring to these equities.
At this point try to consider WWWD (What Will Wienkes Do) and WWFCCD (What Will The FCC Do).
Position - Long Sirius, Long XM
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This article has 143 comments:
Good things come to those who wait !!!!!!!!!!!
Today the combined SIRI/XMSR has mkt cap --even at these PPS--of $5.28 BILLION. This is an astronomical # for a combined co that has (as of 12/31/07--figures now are about the same, I'm too lazy to do the arithmetic for 3/31/08) ttm bottom line loss ($1.247 BILLION), deficit net worth ($1.777 BILLION), long term debt $2.760 BIILION, cash in bank $596MILLION and wasting fast, and upon merger will have over 2.9 BILLION shares over which any profits (when and how?) will have to be spread.
Just some other thoughts: when Mel said SIRI 4Q06 and 4Q07 were cash flow positive, that was a scam---accts payable zoomed both times and next quarters adjusted bigtime.
Then a gigantic challenge to refinance over $1B LTD in this credit mkt fot an entity with these pitiful metrics.
Then too growth in total subs is a decreasing percent---1Q06 for SIRI was +761K, 1Q07 was +557K, recent 1Q08 was +323K.
Churn is every quarter worse--in1Q06 SIRI needed 1.26 gross sub adds to get one net new sub. In 1Q08 the figure was 3.11 gross adds needed for one net add.
THESE NUMBERS DO NOT SUPPORT $5.28 BILLION market valuation. Add in the LTD and enterprise value is about $8 BILLION. This is ridiculous!!! SATRAD is not EVER getting to critical mass!
I not only support the GS price targets but would forecast bankruptcy for both companies as standalones, maybe $1.00 --$2.00 trading range for a few years if merger goes ahead.
YOU JUST MAKE EXCUSES AND NOONE ON THIS BOARD IS GOING TO BUY THAT OK
As far as picking where this stock will go after the merger announcement, what the day of, the week of, or two weeks out, strap on your seat belts because its going to be a "whip lash of a ride". I don't understand how anyone can anticipate the relief to investors who just want to get out breaking even, and all the day traders who will be buying and selling this stock trying to make a buck. With the merger 3 - 4 weeks out, and after the company resells itself to the investment community, with "CONSERVATIVE" company guidance, this stock will move to a 3.50 - 4.0 trading range. This range could easily go to 4.0-4.5 if the refinancing is settled out during the "reselling" to the investment community blitz. 3rd Quarter results, regardless what they are, will probably disappoint and over exuberant investor base and cause a pull back. Its the fourth quarter that I believe this stock starts to move solidly forward, with analysts breaking out all of their best guesses, manipulating new metrics, and touting the wonderful job Mel and the boys are doing in moving the company forward. End of the year could easily be in the 4.75-5.00, breaking 5.0, and then easily going to 6-6.50 when all the big investment folks can buy in to this company with their mutual funds. Just this investors foolish opinion.
Now I get here and I see the message board morons found us again. I was afraid of that. Even though I try not to respond, it ends up being to hard not to.
BURTBECK, I am sure that everything you where saying then held true, as you "shorted" and got your "PUTs" in the stock all the way from 1 to 9 as you were losing your ass every time you had to cover or your options expired worthless, you said that cant be, it should not happen. All I can say is I sure am glad I did not listen to people like you when I bought DISH, and DTV. I would still be working now. I heard you people back then saying the same shit.
202507, Hey speak for your self. I like all the information Tyler gives. By the way it is information. I cant count the times he has said I am not an analyst, financial planner, ect., ect., get a grip. My god were else are you going to get somebody going through the FCC comments to break down a percentage on the people FOR, and AGAINST the merger, to track how the NAB scam was effecting the percentages (He also updated it every month). If you dont like it dont read his articles, it is that simple DHAAAAA.
cos1000 got DSX for 31.4 god dam it should have bought Tue. By the way, I answered your post on the other article. I am also going to be pissed if SIRI does not stay down through at least today.
202507 Hold your shit for one more day ok. That is unless you are in the margin then cover it.
163888....I think your right on the mark that the awareness level, investor or not, is on the rise and will continue. When people start to really understand the "second chance", used car market, and the growing subscriber "fish pond" that it will become, this company will really be able to post solid results. That's when people will look back at weeks like this and celebrate their tenacity or lament their weak fortitude.
I'm surprised Mel and Co. haven't looked into this. If they don't, someone should...
It should read: Michael-Moore-let's-ex... type production.
I have followed dsx for quite some time. Love the dividend and growth. It is a cheaper DRYS
"The merger is expected to be approved by the FCC within weeks, and by the end of X at the latest". Since DOJ approval, X has equaled April, May, and June. Now I'd say its at July.
What is everyones opinion as to the absolute latest that we will see final merger approval (an FCC vote) and the closing of the deal? And I mean your absolute, "i'd bet my families lives on it", no way it wont be done yet date... If you asked me back in March, I would have guessed May (and my family would be no more...). I anticipated some political and beaurocratic crap, but this is ridiculous. I'm no Washington insider, but I thought the Department of Justice's decision would send a message to the NAB lobbyists and the FCC that Uncle Sam was actually in it for the people, and this was about more that corporate titans and politicians wheeling and dealing behind closed doors.
Am I still naive to think that it will be done by the end of July?
I'll still be amazed if this merger happens before 2009 ;)
second............Have sirius reinvest in it's own stock " a buy back",
Offer a very basic "student package" at $3.99 geared to young adults by broadcasting college radio stations and other music at a deep discount by making it affordable by off set this with advertising. In the mean time Email the FCC and tell them to stop bleeding these stocks and vote on the merger.
"i'd bet my families lives on it"
I believe the merger will be approved by the 22nd.
BTW:
You've been adopted :)
This author's reports tend to parrot Wall Street research and media reports, with some benign commentary and speculation thrown in for good measure. I'd like to hear some real insight from this self-appointed satellite radio "expert":
What is this author's upside price target on SIRI? What is his "sell" price?
At what point does he think SIRI will be overvalued, and what is his basis for coming to that figure?
I hear the sizzle, but I don't see the steak. If the Goldman analyst is so inaccurate, let's hear the author's rationale and alternative target price, and how he arrives at it. What discount rate does he apply in his DCF analysis?
If $1.50 is the bottom, then where is the top?
As they say prior to takeoff, "keep in mind that the nearest emergency exit may be behind you."
This company would have to grow its subscriber base substantially - 50% per year or more - reduce its churn below 1% - improve its conversion rate to 60% or better, and stave off the third-parties who are already getting in line for a piece of the profits.
Let's not forget shareholder dilution from stock options and stock-based compensation. Its only growth driver is the auto industry now. Even if they can manage to get the credit to buy a new vehicle, the interest rate will make them think twice about springing for a satellite radio subscription.
An irrational market could potentially push this stock's price to $4 per share, but even if it gets there (it won't), keep a firm grip on your ripcord.
Instead this board is like a wake---thanks to the following and others not named:
1. Goldman Sacs and Winkie
2.. Georgetown Partners and Mr. Jackson
3. NAB
4. Other lobbying groups against the merger
5. Congressman who delayed the process with opinions that belong to the FCC to make and not to Congress as it is only the DOJ and FCC that have a vote on the merger
6. Hedge funds and short sellers
7. An FCC that did not take a firm stand from day one by establisihing a deadline for making a final decision and staying with it.
Just as when Rome burned Nero fiddled---- the FCC bowed to all of the naysayers and oh so politically correct factions as the stock collapsed.
FWIW forget the chat boards; demand quarterly and annual reports from the companies you invest in and not on the internet and do your own analysis whether it be technical or fundmental.
Roxieanne
Q, if you mention Michael M. one more time I am going to puck.
heynow913, If you recall I mentioned that I thought you already knew about DSX sense you already invested in it I was just trying to make a point to 202507. By the way what to you think about that call we made. Vigar of Value (Dave) would call that luck but for most who follow this board, know I have been making a lot of lucky calls like that, what are the odds of that.
jimmydasaint, The problem you are going to have is that when The merged company shows what they need to it will be to late. The metrics will have a sweeping change. After 2009 sometime early 2010, I think the stock will take off. Mel has always under estimated and over performed. I believe It is going to be like a light switch. Like I have said, it is not the price of today we are buying it is the price we dont want to pay tomarrow.
202507, I believe it is because of GS did not get nailed by the sub prime mess like everyone else. So they are now considered to be the Streets golden child. Plus like I have said before the whole market is down.
cos1000, god dam it I was going down the blog reading and was going to call a duck a duck (Dave) but you beat me to it. As Dave would say that that was just a lucky guess though.
Also understand that what he is calling conversion rate is known in the industry as "Take Rate", currently running at about 50%, This rate represents of all the autos with factory, OEM, installed radios, the percentage of owners who subscribe beyond the free trial period included in their new car purchase. This "Take Rate" could actually go down, but not likely, if OEM penetration with each auto manufacturer went up significantly, but less owners converted. The thing is, even with this condition, subscriber growth and revenue from paid subscription would most probably go up.
This is a complex company, that contracts with most manufacturers. Most analysts don't really get into the numbers and folks like Vicar want to overlay the financial industry's formulas for investing in mature companies to assess this new technology / media company.
Even GS Weinkes used the reduce YOY subscriber growth, for the quarter, and the fact that "Younger People" are not buying SAT RAD in the retail chain as to why SAT RAD is loosing it's shine with consumers to competitive options. No Numbers, supposition. Also to say that SAT RAD is to dependent on the Auto Manufacturing industry for growth, like that is a revelation, is to state the obvious and then "spin it" like that's a bad thing. The auto industry is and will be their market, new cars significantly at first, but the used car market will be even bigger over time. The "Take Rate" of 50% needs to go to 60% in order for these companies to succeed is a naive understanding of what the SAT RAD industry will become. My example in simple numbers would be: 2008 say 12 mil cars with SAT RAD installed, 50% take rate = 6 mil new subscribers, now we also have 6 mil autos that have not had their radios turned on. Each year that happens, and it already is but is not being reported or assigned a meaningful metric to date, the used car market will increase. Now as a used car buyer, there are 6 mil used cars each year that have SAT RAD installed and you won't have to pay extra for the equipment. That means if you subscribe, Sirius' subscription acquisition cost goes to its partner agreement cost (OEM subsidy) and you become a "Second Chance" subscriber for the company. The increase revenue and resulting CASH FLOW on what is now being considered a lost opportunity falls to the bottom line and is not in any analyst number to date.
So as I, and many here have said before, information and how it is applied is critical. I have not bought a STOCK, I have invested in a COMPANY. For all you stock investors or not, Have a Nice Day. For fellow COMPANY OWNERS tomorrow will be a good day to strengthen your ownership position.
I don't know how you do it, continually rehashing the facts, but my hat is off to you. By the way: A celebration at 75 mil subs in Vegas sound great.
Let me clarify a couple of things:
First, Howard Stern was not actually given $500 million. He signed a contract for 5 years which included compensation and STOCK OPTIONS which, at that time, were VALUED at a total of $500 million. He's taking it on the chin as much as the rest of us, albeit to a greater degree than most, which would explain his obvious frustration along with the rest of us.
Second, it is highly unlikely that some "small start up competitor" is going to come on the scene in SATRAD, since it would require them to launch satellites of their own, at a cost of about $500 million apiece. Space flight is not cheap. Clear Channel has had problems of its own lately, and the prospect of a combined SIRI/XMSR turning a profit is terrifying to them, which is why they've spent so much money attempting to kill both of these companies.
Most of us on this board have seen the value of our shares tank in the last 2 or 3 years, but in the immortal words of Warren Buffet, "If you wouldn't own a stock for 10 years, don't own it for 10 minutes!"
shure46, I cant believe I have to say it again. First SIRI did not just spit out a figure of 500 million (plus about 240 million in options 740million total) and Stern took it. That is most likely what he was bidded up to, just like how most content on satellite radio was over paid for. Second Stern was still well worth it. SIRI had just over 2 million subs that it took almost 2 years to get. In one quarter SIRI got 1.1 million subs and in the next year went from 3.2 million to something like 6 million. Most of that was due to Stern not the OEMs which were just starting to ramp up in satellite. Add to that that Stern gave SIRI a second chance to make it in the sector. Stern almost alone gave SIRI top market share over XMSR for the first time and for the next 10 quarters. Why for so long after the "Stern Effect" was over, well because from that point on SIRI was the house hold name not XMSR.
Next as to why wont a new competer come in this sector, that is simple as *Sirius Fan* put it cost for one Satellites cost around 900 million after launch and insurance. Plus all the OEM contracts are tied up. Then think about it, why would they, they have seen how difficult it has been for SIRI/XMSR and the new company wont have the OEM market to help.
Thanks for the comment. The answer to some of your questions have been written about or discyssed in the past, but here is a very brief synopsis:
1. While I do post information about what analysts are saying, I am not parroting them in my own opnion. There are many anaylysts that I disagree with in several ways, inclusive of Goldman and CITI (the most bearish and most bullish).
2. I have never appointed myself as a "satellite expert"
3. I have stated many times that the upside is a long, that there would be heavy selling on the way up, and that it would take a "perfect storm" to get to pre-merger levels. That taskis even more difficult now. I do not give "buy prices" or "sell prices".
4. This article was not about the accuracy of Goldman, but rather the attention he has received from the street, and will recieve again with his next report. Some of the items i disagree with Goldaman about I have expressed in the past.
5. $1.50 is a possible bottom, but it is also possible that the bottom has already happened. A lot depends on the FCC news, as well as what Wienkes does with his next report. He does have the ear of people, so even if someone disagrees with his thoughts, they should listen to what he says, and when he says it.
6. The top. As I have stated in the past, this equity will have challenges getting through the $3's even with everything going swimingly. Longer term, we will need to see the terms of the merger, how fast synergies acan be realized, a few quarters of joint performace, and get guidance.
cos1000, killierkaul, just got my last 3,000 at 2.86. We will see what happens from here.
There will be a small jump when the FCC does finally approve and Mel comes out with some guidance, but it may only take the stock to 2.00 per share.
The days of dreaming for 4-5.00 per share are long gone. Stocks fall a lot faster than they climb. Every daily drop of 5-6% takes months/years to recover.
Hope I'm dead wrong as I'm in deep in this stock, but I'm trying to face to reality of it all.
I will say, I found it interesting that SIRI did not drop that much concidering the Dow was down almost 360 points and the Nasdaq was down 80 points. So I would look at that and say it is a positive. I dont think we will see 1.5 unless some other bad news comes out. As I said, I think today would be the last day that would have anymore major selling pressure on it. I think we sit here in this cannel for a while until something else happens, matbe a little higher.
Vigar of Value, If you would read the post above, you would see that the figure I gave, for total auto sales was very conservative. By the way of the big three GM has always been the lager of penitration. Also, you will see I was very conservative in all the places of up side in OEMs. The actual number of gross satellite installs in cars this year will be well over 2 million a piece.
So we are clear I do not have a problem with descent on SIRI or XMSR. God and most here knows, I have said negitives also. The proplem I have is that people with no real interest in the stock try to come here and lecture me about the fundamentals. I think after being invested in in both for 7 years I know all sides, the good, the bad, and the ugly (sorry couldn't help it, big Eastwood fan, one of his best moves by the way, except "Kellys Heros").
On that note, I will not bother responding to Vigar of Value again. That is saying a lot considering how much I love to debate.
I also have to say after reading your Bio from your articles can understand what I am talking about with Vigar of Value. You are by far no dunce, and know the downside risk already.
muley101....I agree, they might want the Satellite Network but not the content management....to far off their focus. If they did they would destroy SAT RAD as we know it.
On Jun 26 09:16 PM GJELOSH197 wrote:
> tyler go to hell you and your INCOMPETENCE~!!!!
Real rosy picture he's painting. These people are really starting to piss me off!
Seems: GS and others keep forcing the prices down....one firm after the other...(who was it before GS?)... does this allow their trading buddies to pick up a few 100,000 stocks under $2...(for example)...?
they damn well know too that this merger is 'Likely' (if they do not already know) to go thru...
Scenario: a GS subsid.. buys 500,000 at say, $2, then next year SIRI goes to $10..... sounds like a good Scam to me...
no problem with DOJ and FCC, Right... perhaps they are in on this too..... scaring little guys like us out of the stock... (maybe merger/maybe not !)...... I wonder what the men in 1775 would have to say about this... 1 if by GS, 2 if by the government...!
stay positive Cramer...
so hold on longs.... :/)
Sirius Fan, that was not the first time he was saying that one would go bankrupt if the merger was not delt with soon. As I said in the post referenced above I also think this shows they are not in as bad a position as Cramer thinks. Now please forgive me for believing the CEOs at both XMSR and SIRI that they both have the money/financing to go it alone if need be. The 100 million just shows that they most likely, have deals for financing that most people have no clue about. I also have said it before, I dont think The auto sector which is primed to make a constant revenew stream from these companies are willing to take a chance on lossing that, by letting them go under and lossing the deals they have already with them. There would be no reason the new company would have to honor even close to the original deal. Lets not forget GM is now getting about 5 dollars a subscriber a month. Multiply that by 1, 3, 5, 7, or even 10 million that is not chump change. it might be enough to restructure a financing deal or to up the credit from 250 to 500 million. I am just saying I dont think these companies are not a month or 2 away from being bankrupt, like some do. But that if anything they are at least a year away from that. Even then there are other avenues that can be followed like chapter 11 (which does not mean shareholders are left holding the bag.) which would let them restructure their financing and work out better deals with everyone from the OEMs to the content. Am just saying have a little faith.
XM already paid MLB the $120 million. They did it a month ago. The fact is, XM's financing can be confusing -- there are so many different aspects to it.
The escrow account has been around since XM first signed MLB. They originally funded it via a $120 million Surety Bond that expired here in June. Rather than issuing a new one so close to the merger closing, XM funded it with cash on May 16th. To come up with this cash, they borrowed the remaining $62.5 million that they had left on their $250 million revolver -- and then paid the remaining $57.5 million from their $212 million cash on hand, at the end of Q1. This left them with $154.5 million cash... plus the GM revolver, which was $150 million... or $304.5 million total.
XM then stated that they were going to borrow against the unused GM revolver during Q2, to help out.
Then today, XM announced that one of the banks that are a part of their $250 million facility, agreed to an additional $100 million Term Loan. XM stated that they used these funds to pay what they borrowed against the GM revolver. Unfortunately, we don't know how much that is yet, since Q2 numbers aren't out yet. However, given that XM's total operating cash flow draw is typically less than $30-$40 million each quarter -- it was probably not very much ($20 million, maybe?)
So doing the math, XM started the quarter with $212 million cash; plus had $62.5 million left on one facility; and another $150 million left on the GM facility... that adds up to about $425 million liquidity at the start of Q2.
They then borrowed that remaining $62.5 million facility and used $57.5 million cash to deposit into the escrow account. This left them with $305 million liquidity for the quarter.
They then got the new $100 million term loan -- thereby taking their total liquidity back up to $405 million for the quarter.
Looking back, XM's total OCF burn during Q2 last year was approximately $27 million. So depending on how much negative the OCF was during Q2 this year -- it would be deducted from the $405 million that they had available during the quarter. (Keep in mind, any draws on the GM facility are a part of OCF).
I'd guess that the FCF during Q2 (which is OCF + CapEx) was probably around ($50 million) tops... which again, includes any draws on the GM facility. So paying that off with funds from todays Term Loan -- and any other negative cash flow, will still likely leave them with over $350 million liquidity at the of Q2 here, IMHO.
Let's also keep in mind that the escrow account that XM deposited $120 million in to. When the merger is decided either way, XM plans on replacing this account with another Surety Bond or a letter of credit from MLB. This will then free back up that $120 million back to XM for operating purposes.
IMHO, XM has plenty of liquidity options at their disposal... for now... with or without the merger. But this could change. Regardless, the "demise" that has been speculated so much -- is done so by so many that don't understand their finances. Yes, they can still get new financing... and do have current financing.
If no merger, the banks that funded their revolver (which is now $350 million) that expires next year will more than likely agree to extend the term. GM's $150 million facility (that is not in use anymore) that expires next year, will more than likely agree to extend the term. That just leaves the $650 million in maturing debt next year -- this will have to be refinanced. That is the biggest financing hurdle for XM if there is no merger. I believe they can refinance it, but the terms concern me.
But if there is a merger, then XM has $1.04 billion in puttable debt, plus another $400 million in maturing debt. Then you need to add on the $300 million in maturing Sirius debt. This is nearly $1.8 million between the two, that will need to be refinanced. Other than that, I believe that XM's 2 facilities will remain intact and will likely get extended like I mentioned above.
There's a lot more going on here than just subscriber additions and net losses.
You prior statement regarding whether I have skin in the game (or who I am) reinforces my notion that you draw conclusions quite hastily, because you have no idea who I am or my background and expertise. If you did, you might reconsider your stance. I'm glad I don't allow you to pick my stocks or manage my money for me. A la prochaine, mon ami.
there's a tremendous amount of pressure pushing both these stocks down & theyr'e not driven by fundamentals.
vicar...while i understand and agree with your larger point that someone <<should>> have a clear idea of what a stock is worth when they buy it (i.e. where you expect to get out), you have to agree that the analysis you're putting into it is just as flawed as any of the other methods mentioned used to justify any of the rest of the group's decisions.
further discussion of the point is only going to devolve into opinions about why DCF is/isn't more appropriate than top-line growth, SAC, net add momentum, etc...which, BTW, isn't the point.
you did an analysis that generated a risk profile that you weren't comfortable with. i did another analysis and arrived at a different conclusion. i'm long XMSR since Q4 2006 & am looking for an exit with a small profit in the $20 range (standalone, not merge adjusted)...on the way up, if the business appears to be on more solid footing, i may adjust my perspective...but am sitting on the sidelines and expecting mel to perform as he has in the past...knowing XM should benefit greatly from his stewardship.
make no mistake, missteps by both companies has contributed to the drop in share prices for each...but both have been knocked around MUCH more severely by negative PR and political delays that tend to create the kind of informational vacuum that gives articles like Wienke's MUCH more resonance than it deserves.
cos1000, If that were the case why did the shorts not do it Fri. of last week, it was down even more then. I first of all think it was as I said that the bottom was about where we bought, it due to alot of selling pressure being taken off. Look at it this way if the market was not down 340 and 80 we most likely would have seen SIRI higher then it was Thur.
While there are no guarantees, I believe something is up when a 1.85 stock jumps .27 in 2 hours. I have seen it to many times, the stock jumps for no reason then some great news comes out a few hours or days later. I dont think it was the Apple thing that has been out for some time. Also the same gos with the 100 and 400 million refinancing. That was known about, first thing this morning. I believe that at least one commissioner will show that they are for the merger. On this though, I also dont think that news of Mcdowell would send the stock up that much. People at this point want something more concrete then a person that we already know would vote for it. All I am saying is that a .27 gain on a stock that was 1.85 just before, in a way down market, just doesn't jive with me. I believe something else is up, what it is I am unsure of.
I will say, I cant wait for a decision (positive hopefully). Then I will be able to give Dave both barrels on why this stock is a good play for people with vision, actually for anybody that is as blind as a bat could see. Once I expain it, I think even he will be sad he did not get in at 1.85. killerkaul knows why I dont like saying it before a decision is reached.
In closing we will see if I got LUCKY again. With luck like mine I wonder why I dont play the lottery. LOL