Are Inflation Concerns Inflated?

by: Mark J. Perry

M2: Percentage Change from Year Ago
M2: Monthly Percent Change, At an Annual Rate
The charts above (click to enlarge) are from the St. Louis Fed's most recent "Monetary Trends" report for M2 growth on a: a) percent change from a year ago basis (top chart), and b) monthly percent change at an annual rate basis (bottom chart).

If stability in the growth of M2 was one measure of monetary policy stability, it would seem like the Fed has been doing a pretty good job. The year-to-year change has been steady at about 5% in 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007 and 2008. It's almost as if the Fed has had a fixed money growth rule for M2 of 5% per year since 2004. Although the month-to-month annualized change spiked in early 2008, it is now down to about 0%.

Doesn't this mean that inflation should NOT be a problem?