As we look around this morning we see a lot of red, yet US futures are essentially unchanged and providing little insight as to which way the markets will move today. The economic news today will be on the light side so we do not have much to expect as far as a reason to move us higher. We do find ourselves as one of the last bulls standing with everyone running for cover for fear of this fiscal cliff. We expect a correction, but not an end to the bull run, so we are beginning to accumulate cash and will buy on any pullbacks but just to be clear we are not liquidating any positions to raise this cash.
We have economic news out today, and it is as follows (data set - consensus):
Durable Orders - 2.5%
Durable Orders Ex Transportation - 0.6%
Looking at Asian markets we see markets are lower:
All Ordinaries - down 0.80%
Shanghai Composite - down 0.99%
Nikkei 225 - down 1.17%
NZSE 50 - down 1.11%
Seoul Composite - down 1.17%
In Europe markets are mixed:
CAC 40 - down 0.33%
DAX - down 0.15%
FTSE 100 - up 0.05%
OSE - up 0.31%
Many of the smaller telecom players have backed off of their recent highs as they consolidate their gains and investors reevaluate the wisdom of bidding up shares in anticipation of potential buyouts. We have been discussing the need for Clearwire (CLWR) to pullback and correct to a degree in order to consolidate the huge recent gains the stock has had. We are far more comfortable with shares at this level than we were with prices from a week or so ago. On this pullback we think that if you can initiate a position in the $1.60s then you would be doing well as we are not in the same camp as the brokerage which recently issued a price target of $1/share. The company should be able to find funding in the next 12 months to avoid a cash shortfall, which is why we find ourselves believing shares can go higher through the end of the year. In yesterday's session shares rose $0.11 (6.71%) to close at $1.75 on volume of 9.3 million shares.
Another company with a similar business but which has kept their network within large metropolitan areas is Towerstream (TWER) which saw their shares rise $0.49 (14.50%) to close at $3.87/share on volume of 1 million as DA Davidson initiated coverage on the company with a Buy rating. They placed a $7/share price target on the company, and as someone who has been discussing how great the company's prospects are for some time now we can truly appreciate their bullishness and generous price target. The company is at a point where each new customer they add now will really boost earnings and they have still not announced their new partners, which are obviously national carriers.
We have found ourselves more bullish of retail than at any time over the past few years. We have been bullish of certain retail stocks before now, but now it seems we are in the beginning of a bump up in business and it seems wise to be bullish more and more plays. Although we are seeing much of the sector move higher, we are seeing this bullish move upwards weed out bad operators from the good early in the upswing. One such play is Big Lots (BIG) which just got torn apart yesterday as shares fell $8.08 (20.80%) to close at $30.76/share. They cut their outlook for the rest of the year after missing their numbers for this quarter and it makes one step back and wonder…is it due to a recovery of the economy getting worse? Regardless, investors were wise to step back and sell shares down to a new 52-week low and we can see shares heading even lower. The stores are old, dirty and cluttered and their clientele could be transitioning back to Wal Mart or other discounters.
General Growth Properties (GGP) rose $1.80 (9.72%) to close at $20.32/share yesterday on volume of 43.8 million shares as the stock took off around 1 PM today due to Bill Ackman asking the board to look into selling the company. We are big fans of Ackman's but this is a case where we would not be followers unless one was already in the stock before this announcement. If you want to invest beside the man, stick with his long picks because even he is looking for an exit here to maximize value and it is our guess that the board will not go along with this request. We are bullish real estate (actually a homebuyer in the next month) but would not be purchasing shares here.
We have covered Rosetta Genomics (ROSG) in the past as it has from time to time been a great day trading stocks for our readers. We did go bearish and walked away from the action a month or so back and shares did indeed correct. We noticed the price action the past two days, especially yesterday's move upwards where shares rose $1.63 (34.46%) to close at $6.36/share on much higher than normal volume of 17.6 million shares. The catalyst was an analyst at Aegis initiating coverage on the shares with a Buy rating and a price target of $16/share. We are not investors in the shares, but we do see an opportunity to trade here and would caution anyone who does initiate positions not to fall in love with the stocks and the need to close the books before the market close. That paid off the last time this one caught fire and history generally repeats itself in situations such as this.