Research In Motion Estimates Cut on 3G B-berry Bold Delay

RBC Capital is out with a somewhat cautious call on Research in Motion (RIMM) saying new data points suggest AT&T (T) may launch the 3G Blackberry Bold mid-August, a 2-3 week delay to their prior launch estimate, as it continues to stabilize the device on its HSPA network. Rogers (RCI) appears on track for July launch, and other carriers (Vodafone (VOD), DoCoMo (DCM), TIM, O2, others) are still expected later in August.

Revised Q2 Guidance: As discussed in their Q1 preview, Q2 guidance is highly sensitive to Bold launch timing; RBC estimated Q2 guidance becomes $2.5-$2.6B revenues and $0.91-0.94 EPS (vs. prior estimates for $2.6-2.7B and $0.94-0.97 respectively).

According to RBC this development mirrors early stability issues RIM faced with UMTS, EV-DO, EDGE networks, including a Nov 2005 delay with the Blackberry 8700 on AT&T, subsequently resolved by RIM to maintain its hallmark battery life user experience. 3G is significantly more power consumptive than 2.5G (higher processing demands), and the Bold also uses a new Operating System (v4.6) and a new Marvell (MRVL) 624MHz processor/chipset.

Given street expectations for a late July/early August Bold launch, and with valuation at 36x concentrated FTM P/E, news of the delay may offer near-term valuation volatility. The Firm views any interim price weakness as an opportunity for longer-term investors to accumulate the shares. This delay does not affect their longer-term thesis.

Notablecalls: Expect to see weakness in RIMM today in reaction to RBC's estimate cut. The stock simply can't afford even the slightest miss here. Think we will see RIMM sub-$140 today.

Kudos goes to RBC Capital's Mike Abramsky for continued excellent coverage on RIMM. He's really the Axe in this space.

Comments

[will:]

RBC just raised their PT to 165 from 150 YESTERDAY! Don't let them play byou and grab more shares this morning.

2008 Jun 25 07:59 AM

[HarMegiddo:]

HHmm, make this call on the morning of an earnings release. I call BS!!

2008 Jun 25 08:20 AM

[.crazylegs..:]

Makes one wonder if there really is an issue or if this is another excuse to give the iPhone as much runway as possible...

2008 Jun 25 08:40 AM

[will:]

I wouldn't trust RBC or Mike A. for all the tea in China.

2008 Jun 25 08:50 AM

[Daves Here 62:]

@ will: Hey, thanks for noticing the RBC call from yestrday. Good going!

2008 Jun 25 08:52 AM

[kkin365:]

Note to Will: Please refrain from referencing China -- make it "all the gold in Fort Knox" if you are a citizen of USA, and if you are so inclined.

2008 Jun 25 09:44 AM

[Linkster:]

What does this mean?

He's really the Axe in this space.

2008 Jun 25 10:51 AM