3M Company: More More More (Looks Cheap)

Shares of 3M (MMM) have dropped 7.8% for the quarter through June 23 – with the S&P500 down only 0.4%. We thought it was time to have an objective look at 3M using the interactive Valuecruncher valuation tool.

3M Valuation

3M grew revenues from US$16.3 billion in 2002 to US$24.5 billion in 2007 – 8.4% compound annual growth rate. Our assumptions of revenues for the next three years are US$26.5 billion in 2008 growing to US$29.5 billion in 2010 – 6.4% compound annual growth rate. We have projected EBITDA margins remaining flat at 26.5%.

We have used a terminal growth rate of 2.5%. We calculated this terminal growth rate based on year three growth (2009 to 2010) of 5% dropping to a 2% stable growth rate over the next ten years.

We have used a WACC (discount rate) of 9%. The WACC (discount rate) has a material impact on a discounted cash flow valuation (as does the terminal growth rate). We think this WACC of 9% is reasonable but recognise that the actual number could be as low as 7.5-8.0% or as high as 10%.

We used a terminal capital expenditure number of US$1.5 billion.

Valuecruncher Valuation 3M

Our analysis incorporates the cash and debt on the 3M balance sheet – Valuecruncher calculates a net debt number.

Our analysis gives a valuation of US$85.16 which is 16.7% above the current share price of US$72.96

Based on our analysis, 3M shares look cheap. Play with our assumptions – what does your analysis say?

Valuecruncher has a database of over 1,000 companies on major international exchanges. You can explore, create and share valuations for any of these companies.

Disclosure: none