My Take on the ECB: Head Fake?

Includes: BNPQY, IEV, UBS
by: Alex Cook

I have an alternate theory as to Trichet’s comments about ECB considering raising rates. Look at European banks; raising interest rates just does not seem very healthy (click to enlarge images):

Perhaps the talk about raising rates was a head fake in order to cajole the Fed to begin raising theirs; rather than getting the Europeans to do our dirty work of strengthening the US dollar by de-valuing the euro, Trichet may have been trying to get the Fed to do it on their own. 

The last Fed meeting yielded no change, as expected. Conventional wisdom dictates against raising interest rates in an economic downturn, but it appears that one of the major catalysts for the downturn is energy prices. Regardless of whether or not the ECB raises, lowers, or maintains its interest rates, it is the opinion of this author that the Fed raises theirs to show that talk about strengthening the US dollar is more than just rhetoric.