Are Gold's Handcuffs Broken?

By Brad Zigler

Has gold finally pulled out of its stall? Well, things certainly improved for gold bulls Thursday. A look at the August COMEX gold chart shows a gap-up trading session that promised a breakout from June's doldrums. The contract finished at $915.10 an ounce, up nearly $33. SPDR Gold Shares (NYSE Arca: GLD), an exchange-traded grantor trust holding gold bullion, finished the day up $3.19 per share, or 3.6%.

There was follow-through in the overnight market, too. The Friday floor session launched with the August contract at the $923 level and GLD up 0.4% at $90.98.

COMEX Gold (August 2008)

Technicals have certainly taken on a more bullish tone, but resistance still looms at the $940 level basis the August COMEX contract. Bulls fell well shy of that mark as they exhausted themselves pushing up against $930 in early COMEX trading Friday.

There's really a better story among gold mining stocks, one of a small number of equity market sectors that had any good news to report Thursday. The Philadelphia Gold/Silver Index (PHLX: XAU) jumped 4.4% yesterday against the 3.7% rise in COMEX prices. The broader AMEX Gold Miners Index (AMEX: GDM) fared even better, gaining 5.7% on the day. That produced a similar jump, to $46.42, in the share price of the Market Vectors Gold Miners Fund (AMEX: GDX), an exchange-traded portfolio tracking the index.

The gold bullion/mining stock ratio determined by comparing GLD's price against GDX's, turned sharply in GDX's favor Thursday. Still, at 1.96-to-1, it's well-entrenched in the stair-step pattern established early this year.

Among GDX components this morning, Compania de Minas Buenaventura SA (NYSE: BVN), a Peruvian miner, was faring best with a $2.65 per share, or 4.3%, gain.

Gold Vs. Gold Stocks

Gold's buoyancy owes a lot to the oil market, which stretched its bullish muscles again Thursday. A lot of investors voted with their feet yesterday, fleeing equities for the greener, er, blacker or golden, pastures of commodities.

Still, oil is trumping gold in bullishness. The gold/oil ratio has found some support at the 6.4-to-1 level, but hasn't yet indicated it's ready to turn upward. The ratio, which measures gold purchasing power in barrels of oil, plummeted from the 8.4-to-1 level at the start of the year.

Gold/Oil Ratio

And silver? What about silver? The active July COMEX contract was higher overnight following its own 3.8% rise to $17.125 an ounce. Most of last night's rise, however, was attributable to short covering. Silver didn't break out of its trading range Thursday and, in fact, closed near session lows. Near-term resistance remains at the $17.45 level basis July.

COMEX Silver (July 2008)

The gold/silver ratio, basis the London morning fix, was 53.05-to-1 today. Traders playing the ratio with U.S.-traded securities saw the DB Gold Double Short Exchange-Traded Note (NYSE Arca: DZZ) close down 6.9% at $27.33 per share yesterday, while the iShares Silver Trust (AMEX: SLV) finished 2.9% higher at $170.25 per share.

Gold/Silver Ratio: Securities Version