Sirius: Post-Merger Guidance 97 comments
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Despite finally getting some merger guidance for satellite radio, the stocks responded by giving up virtually all gains acquired late in the day Friday. Sirius (SIRI) and XM (XMSR) gave the first real glimpses of synergies in a press release issued Monday morning. The new guidance includes:
Expects 2009 Total Net Synergies of $400 Million
Expects 2009 Adjusted EBITDA of $300 Million
Expects Positive Free Cash Flow, before Satellite Capital Expenditures, for 2009
Sirius was clear that the synergies outlined assume that the proposed merger with XM passes regulatory muster. The DOJ approved the deal some time ago, and a Draft Order has been circulated by FCC Chairman Kevin Martin. While the new details did not get very specific, the company did offer a bit of added flavor:
– Total synergies, net of the costs to achieve such synergies, for the combined company are expected to be approximately $400 million in 2009;
– Adjusted EBITDA for the combined company is expected to be approximately $300 million in 2009. Adjusted EBITDA is net income/(loss) before interest and investment income, interest expense (net of amounts capitalized), depreciation expense, and non-cash stock compensation expense; and
– The combined company is expected to achieve positive free cash flow, before satellite capital expenditures, for the full year 2009.
“The upside potential from this merger is significant. In addition, the synergies, adjusted EBITDA and free cash flow are expected to continue to grow in subsequent years, and we look forward to providing more detail of this growth in coming months,” said Mel Karmazin, SIRIUS Chief Executive Officer and the previously announced CEO of the combined SIRIUS and XM.
While the new information is welcomed news, the pending merger is what people are really interested in. This new guidance should give analysts some new items to consider as they begin to draw up their models.
Disclosure: Long Sirius, Long XM
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PPM stands for Portable People Meter. It's the new digital audience measurement system that is currently being rolled out in several major markets nationally this summer and fall. PPM is much more reliable than the decades-old paper-based diary system, which was actually antiquated and of questionable reliability and accuracy.
With PPM, a digital signal records exactly which station is being tuned in and for which periods of time. This removes the guesswork and unreliable memories of which station people think they were listening to and for how long.
When a listener is tuned to satellite radio, PPM records no Time Spent Listening to terrestrial radio. This means lower TSL, which translates to lower ratings and lower ad revenue for terrestrial radio stations.
Terrestrial radio will naturally fight any medium that poses a direct threat to the integrity of its bread-and-butter listenership: People in their automobiles. However, just because terrestrial radio deems it a threat doesn't mean that satellite radio will be profitable, or that their stocks will make investors fabulously wealthy.
VicDave, me alone, no. But there you go again skipping details that do not fit your arguement. So I reprinted them for you.
She then asked what state I lived in for her spread sheet to show who is for and against and what state they are from. Her # is for those that want or dont know it is (202) 418-2500
cos1000, There are plenty of other people from Tennessee that have made it known to her that they are for the merger from the Mayor of Nashville to the country music industry. I also think that Tate can see that the radio stations are as biased as possibly can by, unlike the mayor of Nashville. Plus I have no dought that the people (ones that have shares or are users of satellite radio) of Nashville are for it and have given her a call to say so like I did (even though I am not from Nashville). The problem the NAB has is unless people are directly involved such as subscribers or shareholders they are not going to take the time to call, they just dont care, and lets face it most of us are for it. The NAB just dont have that many employees, as SIRI/XMSR has subscribers and shareholders.
By the way VicDave that number I gave is all over the message boards. I dont have the self importance problem here, you do. You see because any normal person reading that the first time would have seen that I was saying call Tate. The spread sheet information and the fact that she ASKED me for, the state I was from, and weather I was for or against was her idea not mine. I first just called to vent.
Now as for the PPM it still makes no difference if the company is going out of business as soon as you seem to think they would. I see you once again skiped details, so I reposted it for you.
I bet VicDave has no answer to, If satellite radio is such a dead company with no future. Why is the NAB fighting so hard against it. I am talking about a reasonable answer, not one that says the NAB just likes to through millions upon millions of dollars down the drain needlessly. I also do not consider that the NAB wants to stop what they call a monopoly, because that has the same answer if they will go out of business soon anyway then why bother.
Finally, Excuse me but I find the NAB to be more intelligent then you. When I see them trying to concoct any and every possible thing to slow and stop satellite radio. That tells me, they consider satellite radio a hugh competetion.
On Jul 02 11:28 PM The Vicar of Value wrote:
> 163888 do you really think that calling the office of an FCC Commissioner
> is really going to sway their decision, or have any impact on the
> speed (or lack thereof) of the decision process? Don't overestimate
> your sense of self-importance. Your phone call comes on the heels
> of boatloads of PAC money and special interest influence, all of
> which speak much louder than you do. Up against that monolith, your
> voice to them is but a forgettable wisp of pollen on the wind of
> a summer storm.
As for Mars every one of those missions are planned way in advance. To be honest I totally disagree about the Mars issue. Humans are natural explorers. Have you ever had kids. If so then you should already know this, from the time they can crawl, they start to explore every nuk and crany of the house, as soon as they can climb those stairs they do. they want to put everything in their mouths. Finally on this I will say, I am sure the Queen of Spain did not want to give Columbus 3 ships to go were no man had gone before but if she had not, America would not have been found. I know that you are going to say that we would have found it sooner or later. I however some how dought it if we would have had your kind of attidude towards exploring. I think we would not exist as a matter of fact. Did you know that at one time we were almost extinct we went from something like 20 million to just between 2,500 to 10,000 you know what saved us? Us being natural explorers we had spread out. Now as to will we ever live on Mars, I dont know. I do know it is in our nature to try.
By the way dont worry about typos or misspells. It is a blog, not that important. If anybody does correct you on a blog. Tell them, it is a blog you dip wad.
P.S. Call Tate that number is above. I was not kidding she told me they are running a spead sheet to find out who is for, and against, and what state they are from. I would hope they would include the E mails but you never know.
.......ok check this out , you are patriotic and support your troops by sending them to die !!!!!! and if you want to bring them home so they can be with their families , you do not support the troops !!!!!!!! hahahahahhahaha THAT is the biggest BS load of crap I have ever heard , and THAT is the frickin' definition of SPIN ......
I can make the bet Because, I know for a fact they have never said it. So who is spinning here??? Now here are things that they have said: It is wrong for Senator Reid to have said the war is already lost. It is wrong for them, Senators Kerry, and Mc dermott, ect., to say that our troops are terrorist and cold blooded killers then when the troops were found innocent. Not one time did the senators say they were sorry. Even you will agree that is at the very least wrong right.
The fact is that when you try to compare conservative radio to the liberal print (New York Times, Washington Post, ect.,ect.) and tv/cable (ABC, CBS, NBC, CNBC, MSNBC, CNN, ect., ect.), shows the blinders you have on again because there is no comparison what so ever.
Next I would like to seal the boarders to but you would never see Rush, Sean or O'reilly ever considering what you are. The rest of what you have written is kind of a rant so I will not bother with it.
Now, onto your next comment about Mars. You say that is a ridiculous comparison, in this day and age where everyone knows the world is round that may seem ridiculous of a comparison. But you see, you once again show you have your blinders are on. this is what you said:
163888 ---- One more thing........ About going to Mars ......The Columbus argument is rediculous .....Christopher Columbus discovered a lush continent with millions of trees and major resources ( not to mention water and oxygen !!! )......Mars is a frickin' desert millions of miles away,
The reason I say you have blinders on is simple, back when Columbus set out on his adventure, The popular belief was that the world was flat that if you went to far, that you would sail off it. The trip was not to find a new contant it was to find an easyer way to the Indies (hence were the name indians comes from) by sailing around the world, something most thought impossible, because the world was flat, plus you cant drink salt water. Once again I have to keep reposting what I already said THOSE MISSIONS ARE PLANED MANY YEARS IN ADVANCE. By the way if you take the Bible literally then the earth is only 10,000 years old, and I suppose you believe that also. In closing you yourself show your blinders by admitting that you find satellites good. Well How do you think we got that far. Also as for kids wanting to explore, I can say I have no dought that there are many people that cannot afford college that does not mean they dont send them, and that is the biggest exploration of their lives. It is an investment in the future. Something you might see if you took those blinders off.
Now on to the last comment. Just because a country labels another a terrorist does not make it so. When you deliberately go after civilians that is terrorism. I think even you would agree that if the PLO, or Hamas went after the military only, instead of the direct targeting of the civilian population then they would have gotten much further. I personally can not believe they get the support they already do get from the libs over here, one of which is Obama by the way. As for the Iraqies they have also come to realize, who it is that has been blowing the heads off of their family members (the terrorist I explaned to you just before). But you see because you have blinders on you stay on CNN, ect.,ect., for the most part and never here of how much that has improved in Iraq. You should have realized though that the coverage of Iraq has been nonexistant though, the reason is clear, things are going very well and that is not the agenda the liberal media wants out, that is unless you watch FOX or listen to Rush L. or Hannity on the radio. By the way have you even heard about the 600 **TONs**, thats right not pounds, but **TONs** of Urainum rich Yellow Cake transported from Iraq to Canada (I have no idea why Canada bought it, but I feel alot safer that it is in their hands then Saddams, dont you). I ask you what the hell was Saddam going to do with that. I dought you heard much about that watching CNN, ABC, CBS, NBC, MSNBC, CNBC, ect., ect., or for that matter the 500 artillary shells that were tipped with chemical warheads, that were found a few years back. I remember that debate also that Hannity had when the guest said; well the chemicals in those warheads were old and had denergrated, Hannity said then I guess you would not mind them being stored in your back yard. He got the guest to say no that still does not mean they are not dangerous, which was the point Hannity was getting at.
I will tell you shure46 you are at a big disadvantage debating me on this. You ask why, well not because I am more intelligent then you. While I do think I have more common sense then many. It is because your arguements come from the liberal side of things and that puts you at a big disadvandage. The reason is simple very very few to none of their ideologies are logical. Good luck with trying to come to grips with that. You may think you are reasonable, I say you are far from it if you can be fooled into voting for a person like Obama over McCain. But you keep your eyes closed and keep watching the liberal media that has been in the tank for Obama and see what you get. If you still believe the press is not liberal then why did you not here about Rev. Right until it was to late while I heard about him way back in march of 2007, thats right not 2008 but 2007. You know full well if the press would have been on this like Hannity was in 2007 Obama would not have been even the democrats choice. You should ask yourself why they did not cover it.
P.S. Where you also totally ignorant of the 500 chemically tip artillery shells and the 600 tons of Yellow Cake found in Iraq.
Like I said, when you try to argue with me on these things you are totally over matched. Being on the liberal side, means you close your eyes, and ears to things you dont want to see or hear. Here is a perfect example You think Fox is totally conservative. Well being a conservative myself I can tell you they are not. Is it not funny that Clinton said that Fox was the most fair and balanced of all the media. The reason is while all the other media was in the tank for Obama, Fox was not.