Can CBS's TV.com Become a $1B Business in 2 Years?

It’s way too premature… but if CBS/CNET take TV.com (one of the many URLs CBS inherits by way of its $1.8B acquisition of CNET) and delivers on 25% of its promise, considering all of these assets, then I think TV.com can become the next great online video property. 

This is extremely premature and assumes that traditional media (CBS) and big, new media (CNET) don’t drop the ball, make synergies happen, integrate wisely, blah-blah-blah. But again, at 25% of its potential, I do not see how TV.com cannot become something worth talking about. Just look at all of this, from the official press release:

Technology: CNET.com is the number one Web site in the computer and consumer electronics category, reaching more than 18 million people every month with daily premium content offerings. From the latest product reviews to breaking news from the digital world, as well as video and program downloads, CNET.com has become the leading destination for people looking to navigate today’s digital world.

Entertainment: Representing the third largest online entertainment group on the web, the collective reach of CBS Interactive’s entertainment portfolio will now exceed 24 million users each month, and include many of the leading brands on the web today, including: TV.com, CBS.com, The CBS Audience Network, theInsider.com, GameSpot.com, Last.fm, and CHOW.com, among others. These are among the most visited entertainment destinations on the web today, each with their own identity and audience profile, and they continue to grow in users and time spent visiting. This past year, for instance, CBS.com market share grew a category-leading 41 percent. Combined with the power of America’s most watched network – CBS Television – CBS Interactive offers unparalleled consumer reach online and offline.

Sports: CBS Interactive is a leader in athletic coverage, from sites devoted to professional sports to the largest collection of collegiate brands. Among its top destinations are CBSSports.com, CBSCollegeSports.com, NCAA.com, and MaxPreps.com, representing one of the digital world’s largest sports footprints. Working with its leading broadcast and radio properties, CBS offers the unique opportunity to reach a wide group of people who are passionate about sports across the internet, television and radio.

News: Two of the strongest news sites in their own right, CBSNews.com, a leader in world news, and CNET News.com, the leader in technology news, combine to create the sixth largest property in the Current Events/Global News category. From breaking news and international reports to coverage of business, politics and technology, the combination of these two destinations gives users a global perspective they cannot find anywhere else.

Business: Eighteen million users each month have come to rely on CBS Interactive’s business properties, which include BNET.com, the cornerstone of the business category, and leading sites like ZDNet and TechRepublic. Collectively, these assets are among the fastest growing destinations in the expanding business category and offer users the latest and most insightful business coverage, with unique perspectives on management and technology.

Given the $1B valuation bestowed on Hulu (given the 10% equity sale for $100M) and $1.65B that YouTube fetched, I cannot understand how TV.com should be anything less than a $1B business in 2 years.  Why 2 years?

• YouTube went from “domain registration” to “liquidity event” in 2 years.
• Hulu went from an idea on a napkin to a $1B valuation in 2 years.

It won’t be easy,and despite CBS’ offline TV mojo and all of the video efforts of CNET, there’s plenty of work to be done, but it surely can be done.

Will it?  I don’t know… I don’t anyone knows.