Wednesday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets

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Based on mail and other feedback I’d say many are on vacation already. The July 4th holiday is upon us and trading volume will start to slacken by Wednesday afternoon no doubt.

Many equity markets bounced at support levels as if orchestrated from on high and many claim that’s the source of Tuesday’s rally. For me, I just think it’s as simple as a rally off support with markets short-term oversold.



Have a pleasant day.

Disclaimer: Among other issues the ETF Digest maintains long or short positions in SPY, IWM, QQQQ, XLY, XLB, IYR, DBA, EFA, IEV, EEM, EWZ and FXI.

Comments

[Daniel Serm...:]

Thank you much for putting these together everyday. Saves me the time and I enjoy the commentary.

2008 Jul 02 08:53 AM

[dukeb:]

David: The comment that the ECB is "telling" the US Fed to raise rates is being drawn from the *implications* of the differing rate stances, correct? (Rather than specific communications between the ECB & Fed, which I haven't read about but would want to if they exist. Otherwise, even though I agree with your interpretation, it's just as easy to flip who's telling who what.) Thanks.

2008 Jul 02 09:30 AM

[David Lentz:]

dukeb: There is more than the differing rate stances that distinguishes the US from the EU. The US has a history of deficits (budgetary, trade, planning, mental) that makes it stand out and assume the role of the tail rather than the dog.

Just the ginormous debt balances leave our ability to influence rates at perilously low levels, and give the debt holders (and future takers of junk US Treasury debt) a lot to say about what we do, just as the creditors of credit card junkies have a lot to say about how they live their lives.

Given that, I would think that the Chinese would have a lot more to say about our rate policies than the EU. I didn't think that the EU had that great of share of our foreign debt -- although they might be the entity that Uncle Sam has the best hope of being bailed out by.

Whomever is going to be pulling the Fed's chain, I just wish they would throw a rock with a note attached through the windows at the Fed, and tell them in no uncertain terms STOP INFLATING NOW!

Things are quite bad enough with our double dose of imported price inflation without making things worse by stoking monetary inflation as well.

2008 Jul 02 10:00 AM

[David Lentz:]

dukeb: There is more than the differing rate stances that distinguishes the US from the EU. The US has a history of deficits (budgetary, trade, planning, mental) that makes it stand out and assume the role of the tail rather than the dog.

Just the ginormous debt balances leave our ability to influence rates at perilously low levels, and give the debt holders (and future takers of junk US Treasury debt) a lot to say about what we do, just as the creditors of credit card junkies have a lot to say about how they live their lives.

Given that, I would think that the Chinese would have a lot more to say about our rate policies than the EU. I didn't think that the EU had that great of share of our foreign debt -- although they might be the entity that Uncle Sam has the best hope of being bailed out by.

Whomever is going to be pulling the Fed's chain, I just wish they would throw a rock with a note attached through the windows at the Fed, and tell them in no uncertain terms STOP INFLATING NOW!

Things are quite bad enough with our double dose of imported price inflation without making things worse by stoking monetary inflation as well.

2008 Jul 02 10:01 AM

[adan:]

great charts and commentary as usual, thanks!

2008 Jul 02 10:13 AM