Reduced Yield Potential for U.S. Corn, Soybeans

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 |  Includes: DBA, GRU, JJA, MOO
by: Michael Ferrari

A few weeks back in our weekly grains report, we estimated corn yields to be 6-11% below trend (7-year) and soybean yields to be 5-9% below trend, and in addition, highlighted the significant reduced potential for the corn crop.

The weather over the last three weeks has done nothing to help, and the estimates now for corn are 11-13% below trend, and for beans to be 7-10% below trend. This is in line with what was originally discussed in our reports from early June.

After visiting midwestern fields last week, many fields are completely under water, and those which are not, are still saturated and early development has been stunted. I anticipate many fields not to even plant, and for those that do, it will be extremely challenging to make even marginal yields. Iowa and Missouri had even more significant rain events last week. I saw many fields with the ankle-high corn that I mentioned earlier; by the end of June, corn is usually waist to shoulder high.

While beans may need fewer days to maturity, it is now approaching the point where it is too late for growers to make a switch. Many are comparing this year’s crop potential to the disaster resulting from the 1993 flood event. See FAS maps below for negative crop conditions (through 2nd dekad June).

right click 'view' to enlarge image