A few weeks back in our weekly grains report, we estimated corn yields to be 6-11% below trend (7-year) and soybean yields to be 5-9% below trend, and in addition, highlighted the significant reduced potential for the corn crop.
The weather over the last three weeks has done nothing to help, and the estimates now for corn are 11-13% below trend, and for beans to be 7-10% below trend. This is in line with what was originally discussed in our reports from early June.
After visiting midwestern fields last week, many fields are completely under water, and those which are not, are still saturated and early development has been stunted. I anticipate many fields not to even plant, and for those that do, it will be extremely challenging to make even marginal yields. Iowa and Missouri had even more significant rain events last week. I saw many fields with the ankle-high corn that I mentioned earlier; by the end of June, corn is usually waist to shoulder high.
While beans may need fewer days to maturity, it is now approaching the point where it is too late for growers to make a switch. Many are comparing this year’s crop potential to the disaster resulting from the 1993 flood event. See FAS maps below for negative crop conditions (through 2nd dekad June).
right click 'view' to enlarge image
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This article has 5 comments:
- Hutch
- 13 Comments
Jul 02 01:51 PMHey; it's a good excuse to stock up on beer!
- John Pseudonym
- 230 Comments
Jul 02 03:16 PMCorn needs all the time it can get and an early frost would be a disaster.
We've had a cold, super wet spring; what does history say about what comes in the fall of a spring like that?
- michael ferrari
- 10 Comments
My Website
Jul 02 04:09 PM- Tim Plaehn
- 161 Comments
My Website
Jul 03 08:24 AM- blink0404
- 95 Comments
Jul 03 12:25 PMthe main idea is that individual investors dont have to act like institutional investors and this market and may be better holding cash than trying to beat the market.
www.greenfaucet.com/sh...
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