Thursday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets

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Every bear market has its causes and ultimate signature--this one won’t be any different. How long will this condition last? I haven’t the foggiest.

Bulls shouldn’t be too quick to jump on “values” and bears shouldn’t be doing any victory laps until they close their shorts and tally-up their gains if any.

Are markets oversold? Sure. And they can stay oversold for longer than most can imagine. Nevertheless you should expect vigorous countertrend rallies at any time.

Dependent on market conditions today I may only post Part VI of my ongoing “Dawn of a New Era” essay begun in 2003.

Have a pleasant day and holiday in any event.

Disclaimer: Among other issues the ETF Digest maintains long or short positions in SPY, SDS, MDY, MZZ, IWM, TWM, QQQQ, QID, XLY, SCC, XLI, SIJ, IYR, SRS, XLB, SMN, DBA, DAG, EFA, EFU, EEM EEV, IEV, EWJ, EWV, EWA, EWY, EWZ, EWW, ILF, FXI and FXP.

Comments

[fatcat:]

David,there really is someone on the wing!!

2008 Jul 03 06:38 AM

[johnthebear:]

David, you said that you would be talking to ProShares on Monday so that you could help me understand the mechanics of how they do the 2:1 double shorts for FXI/FXP and IYR/SRS.

Really would like to hear your thoughts on this subject. Thanks, John

2008 Jul 03 08:52 AM

[David Fry:]

I did speak with them and have passed your email to them for a response. Most of their people have taken off for the holiday and I expect a response next week. I can't guarantee they will satisfy your inquiry.

As you know we spent most of our time with them on tracking issues and posted a table on Tuesday I believe.

2008 Jul 03 09:06 AM

[DB10:]

Why isn't there a ETF short/double short for Europe (the markets not not the currency)?

2008 Jul 03 09:14 AM

[lakeerieboy:]

Thanks for the great updates daily. Your article is great, very usefull and highly needed.
Thanks again.

2008 Jul 03 10:23 AM

[CTBlue:]

Keep up the great work

2008 Jul 03 10:32 AM

[David Fry:]

media.proshares.com/do...

John the bear you might scan this piece and note some of the techniques they utilize.

2008 Jul 03 12:52 PM

[David Fry:]

media.proshares.com/do...

2008 Jul 03 12:54 PM

[David Fry:]

media.proshares.com/do...

I'll try it this way, but it doesn't seem to post. Since it won't post you might go to their website and look for this interview on their site via Investors Business Daily.

2008 Jul 03 12:55 PM

[TA:]

One of my all time favorite authors - thanks for all the time you put in posting here

2008 Jul 04 12:26 PM

[David Fry:]

Thanks Blah-Blah, much appreciated.

2008 Jul 05 08:57 AM