Consumer staples and utilities have been the stocks to buy in previous market downturns. Since they make or provide products we use daily (food, water, personal care, electricity, heat), their sales are not as correlated with economic cycles as, say, those of car manufacturers.
Six months ago, I looked at how some non-cyclical stocks -- Altria (NYSE:MO), Anheuser Busch (NYSE:BUD), Coca Cola (NYSE:KO), Consolidated Edison (NYSE:ED), Diageo (NYSE:DEO), General Mills (NYSE:GIS), Johnson & Johnson (NYSE:JNJ), Kellog (NYSE:K), Kraft (KFT), Pepsico (NYSE:PEP), Proctor & Gamble (NYSE:PG), and Reynold's American (NYSE:RAI) -- performed during recent market slumps and since the beginning of the decade. I concluded that owning all these stocks, especially over the almost eight year period, was much better than owning the S&P 500, even excluding dividends.
Year to date all but two of the above stocks (BUD and General Mills) are down. (If not for InBev's buyout offer, BUD would probably be in negative territory as well.)
The reasons for most of these are not hard to see. Prices for food, raw materials, and energy are soaring. This constricts margins, and profits can (and in most cases do) take a hit even if sales remain steady or rise.
Consider Pepsi and Coke, for example. Most of their beverages come in plastic bottles and aluminum cans, and are sweetened by high fructose corn syrup. The cost of plastic, a petrochemical, has gone up with rising energy prices. Aluminum prices have risen sharply since the start of the year, making cans more expensive as well. Coke recently had to bail out a couple of its bottlers as a result. The rising price of corn affects high fructose corn syrup (and many of Pepsi's snack foods). Most of the other stocks mentioned above face similar issues.
Nevertheless, the majority of the above stocks (7 out of 12) are beating the S&P year to date. Moreover, out of the 12, only Coca Cola has underperformed the S&P since the start of the decade (if we exclude dividends).
We have a similar picture when looking at a broader array of non-cyclicals. Utilities can be purchased through ETFs XLU, IDU, and VPU. Consumer staples can be bought through KXI, XLP, and VDC. Note that KXI, the worst performer, is a global consumer staples ETF. Here's a year to date chart (click to enlarge):
Although in negative territory, they are all outperforming the S&P 500.
The future looks brighter. Most consumer staples and utilities companies are able to raise prices to offset rising costs. As costs will eventually stabilize or go down, profit margins will expand.
If share prices dip during the upcoming earnings season, it may be a good idea to do some research and pick up a few shares of the ETFs or of companies like Pepsi.
Disclosure: Although I do not directly own any of the stocks mentioned above, I may own some or all of them through BlackRock's Enhanced Equity Yield Fund