After 9-11 there was a worldwide outpouring of sympathy toward the victims and the US in general. Instead of taking a cold hard look at the facts (i.e. all but two of the hijackers were Saudi, the other being Egyptian), the Bush administration pulled the marketing coup of the century by placing blame on Iraq and used 9-11 as a pretext for invading that country.
Even as the majority of US citizens apparently agreed with this "strategy" (the author excluded), the rest of the world saw the move for what it was: a Bush family feud with Saddam and a a bold play for oil. When France and Germany wouldn't play ball, Rumsfeld denounced them as "old Europe". The "coalition of the willing" moved "forward" and the US acted in a unilateral fashion with a few Brits sprinkled in for good measure.
Well, I'm here to tell you Rummy had it all wrong. It's not "old Europe", it's "new Europe". What it was (and is) is "old US". Old US Vietnam era thinking, and old US energy policies. As Europe invests in nuclear and wind energy and built out its mass transit, the US was building Hummers and its politicians denouncing global warming and hiding its head in the sand with respect to oil.
The fall of Baghdad was celebrated at a cocktail party on Embassy row and was reportedly the hottest ticket in Washington DC. Curiously, the Secretary of State Colin Powell was not present (nor invited). However, coalition of the willing participant Eritrea's ambassador was welcome (where is Eritrea anyhow?). Of course the German and French ambassador's were not invited. Their public outspokenness against the war placed them lower on the totem pole than Colin Powell. So Rummy, Wolfowitz, Cheney and all the other members of the neocons celebrated into the night while sneering at the French embassy across the street.
But who has had the last laugh? The US dollar has simply been hammered - dropping over 50% during the Bush administration's watch. Meanwhile, the Euro, despite the recent Irish vote (go Irish!) has strengthened mightily. Bush's bid to rid the family name of the "wimp" factor has indeed cost the US and its currency greatly. In fact, it is my opinion that the US dollar is no longer the world's "reserve currency". The world currency now is a barrel of oil, which is priced in US dollars. US dollar goes down, oil goes up. But boy, Bush 43 sure proved to Maureen Dowd and all the other "liberal" journalists that he ain't no wimp! Mission accomplished.
Since the US refuses to enact a sane energy policy we continue to send $700 billion dollars a year to oil producing nations. Every time oil goes up $1 a barrel, all the Fed can do at this point is print more money. We already have huge twin deficits, and the tax & spend policies of the Bush years have dug a financial hole that will be most difficult to recover from, especially with the "oil factor" such an inconvenient reality. Besides, why raise taxes for Warren Buffet and multi-millionaire hedge fund managers in order to strengthen the US dollar and bring down gas prices for middle-class Americans? That makes no sense in BushWorld. But that is current reality.
So what does this have to do with investments you ask? What is with all this liberal anti-Bush baloney? Well, first, it's fact not baloney. Secondly it matters greatly with respect to the US individual investor. The US dollar will continue to weaken. The price of oil will continue upward. So too will inflation. So, what do we do Fitzman?
Buy gold - GLD is the StreetTracks gold ETF and holds gold bullion. Gold's recent pullback under $1000 is a buying opportunity as nothing has changed: the US financial industry is in chaos, the twin deficits continue to break records with every passing day, and inflation rates are rising with the price of oil.
If you don't like GLD, try something like DBC. DBC is the PowerShares commodity index tracking fund and holds a basket of commodities, gold included.
Two funds I like for cash are MERKX and PSAFX. The first is the MERK Hard Currency Fund, and the second is the Prudent Global Income Fund. Both funds invest in countries with better financial policies than the US, and MERK invests in gold as well.
Good luck with your investments and don't think for a minute that the politics of Washington, DC don't affect your investment dollars. Those long on the S&P500 are finding this out the hard way.
Disclosures: the author owns DBC, MERKX and PSAFX.
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This article has 26 comments:
Surely you meant "borrow and spend".
In 2000 our national debt was under $6 trillion. Our next president will inherit a debt of close to $10 trillion.
So much for the theory that cutting taxes will raise government revenue.
From an economic basis I am interested in your thoughts on what we could collectively do not - not to make ourselves a buck from investing (there will be plenty of opportunties to do THAT) - but to get the US on firmer footing economically. What would you do?
FDR and Nixon made money imaginary by suppressing gold. Then Bush and his friends went on a spending spree with all that imaginary money. Now, the country finally has to pay up with its real assets.
It's not political in that the system has always been predicated on personal greed, ignorance, and indifference. So here we are.
Gold and silver are dropping this morning, which is completely insane in the face of a coming currency collapse. Best of luck, all.
greencheeks: nice name but i am not comfortable with SDS and agree with FoxV's comments (see above) especially the last line.
DavyJ: true that.
mickel98: let me give you some non-emotional FACTS about your bush administration's financial policy's results:
1) an S&P 500 that has gone NO-where in 8 years
2) a US dollar that has dropped 50%
3) inflation that is raging so bad the gov has to lie about it to keep I-bond and COL adjustments down or the deficit would be larger
4) the biggest growth in US government EVER
5) an economy in ruins
6) a middle class that is quickly going extinct.
yeah boy, some prosperity these tax cuts for the super wealthy are giving us! with prosperity like this, why don't we just let them pay no taxes at all so we can end the US by 2010? btw, "engineering"... alone is not going to fix the worldwide oil supply/demand problem going forward.
golden: what would i do? the most important issue facing the US, and the most direct threat to our national security, economy, and way of life is OIL. here is my solution to that problem:
thefitzman.blogspot.co...
bookmark this link, send it to your friends and your politicians. a sane energy policy is our only hope going forward. once the government controls how much gas we can use, and that is where we are headed by doing nothing, real "freedom" will be a thing of the past. this may explain why Congress has done nothing, but that is the cynic in me talking...
the next priority would be to bring back sanity to our financial house, which the republicans have quite simply wrecked. this means taxing and spending need to be balanced. this will require sacrifices, but to do nothing means we go the way of the weimer republic (notice they are no longer around...).
lastly, we must restore our foreign policy to a position of respect. we cannot afford the unilateral actions of the bush administration going forward. we pay economically for such brash bs. we need other countries just as they need us.
those 3 points would be a damn good start. the energy policy though is the cornerstone to restore US economic might. without it, we're quite simply toast as oil prices are going to continue headed upward, and the US dollar downward. it's simple economics, not ideology.
You should go to a political forum.
We can't get rid of the Fed, as turning over our currency to the Politicians where the chairman of the Senate Banking Committee-(Dodd)--does... know what a $75,000 VIP mortgage break is, nor the what prevailing interest rate is--Puleeeze!!!.That's a level of incompetence that even Charlie Rangle would be ashamed of! We all know he's actually on the take--can you imagine how much he would wring out of controlling the Fed.?? That would be like-Presenting Iran with a Hydrogen bomb at a ceremony in Tel-Aviv.
At least get gold under the dollar again--even at $1,000. an oz to stop the slide.
just noticed that as well. Maybe they were deleted because I was insulting to Extreme sportists, or perhaps to high margin daytraders, or maybe both. In anycase I'll sum up.
Ultra funds:
- VERY VERY volatile, not for the faint at heart
- In USD so will depreciate with the USD
- If S&P goes up from inflation, Ultra funds (lose price + lose value) X 2
-use leverage and derivatives so have "Counter party" risk (Big concern in my book)
best investments for our current times is commodities and foreign countries with good economies.
Good Luck all
well here's an idea to expand on that 2% there's another piece of investment advice which is more shunned these days than "Buy Gold" and is a good hedge for inflation and political uncertainty and that's investing in efficiency. Or in even broader terms, "Anything you can buy now that will save you money later"
Obvious examples:
Hot water blanket
Attic Insulation
Energy star appliance (if replacing a very inefficient model)
Yada yada yada...
Not so Obvious examples
Bicycle (or Transit pass for those with long commutes)
Gourmet cooking class (for those that eat out a lot)
Home Nail polishing kit
Whatever...
Not only do some investment in "efficiencies&quo... have ridiculously high returns (up to 100's%/year), but because they also mean you spend less on future price increases, they automatically have TRUE inflation protection baked into them (not just the joke reported in CPI reports)
anyways, a bit off topic, but I thought worth mentioning.
greencheeks: not sure why his earlier comment was deleted. Fox??
captbob: please read my earlier response to golden about solutions, starting with my energy policy:
thefitzman.blogspot.co...
i have published my solutions on here many times. what are yours?
GMiki: hmmm....i don't believe i have ever supported Congress to run monetary policy. what i AM saying is that the current administration's policy appears to be simply to print more US dollars so we can continue to pay interest on the huge debt it has run up as well as to pay for the 65% of the oil we import. this is simply unsustainable, and we are seeing the effects (falling dollar, rising inflation, rising oil prices) now. that's all. we just need to kick these idiots out of office and start over. and, start over with an energy policy as the cornerstone of a new administration. here is such an energy policy:
thefitzman.blogspot.co...
de
and, it gets even better: like most reality-impaired liberals, this guy is 99.9% blame bush and 0.1% solutions, and buying gold is not exactly a solution.
User: part of "einsteins" thesis of oil going to $145 (it hasn't hit $150 yet) is the "geopolitical risk" premium which the unilateral action the US took in iraq has placed on oil. add the supply/demand reality and the 50% drop in the US dollar your "conservative&quo... leader's financial "leadership" has given us and you have your $145/barrel oil.
again: if you want to see my SOLUTIONS simply scroll up above and read my response to "golden". i have been writing about my SOLUTIONS to the bush derived financial and energy crisis on this site for months, so, don't mouth off about my lack of solutions simply because you are too damn lazy to read them. constructive criticism i don't mind (and in fact applaud). lazy republican ideologues that cannot admit or fail to see failed bush policies for what the are i have very little time for. thanks alot for your mindless comment of little substance.
Buying gold makes a lot of sense, but the argument is substantially stronger when you support it with arguments that are fresher than 2003.
=================
oh my, it gets even better. the clueless liberal sees the world as a zero sum game where if ones shows how wrong a thesis is then one must be from the other side. only idiots see the world in a blue versus red state mentality.
and, in any event, as many bright people know, your theory is not even good enough to be wrong. going long in gold is not an investment thesis and no, sorry, but your entire geopolitical risk thesis is absurdly wrong. if bush went for oil, we should be awash in it as the iraqis, sitting on the worlds second largest pool of the black stuff, should be pumping it out in delight.
face it: your theory is wrong.
They sell precious metals. Better than an etf-hold it yourself, then sell when you are ready. The pampe suisse 10 oz ingots are very pretty...
I like Axel Merck, but don't you think those fees really eat into your investment? I get his newsletter. Used to hold the mutual fund, but realized I could do better. You can too. The only thing about physical gold is you can't easily put it into a retirement account-because you are not permitted to hold it yourself. So, if you are investing funds in a 401K (as an example) it makes sense to buy gld and slv and even merckx. ( Is that right, or is it merkx--don't recall). At any rate, I am not going to debate your politics today. I am long oil, nat gas, gold, soy complex, and I'm having a bad day... You have a good one! Think about slv and holding physical commodities.
optionsgirl: i do have some SLV buried in the backyard and i agree with you that it appears to be more undervalued than gold when taking into account the historical ratio between the two. that said, i hafta say that i am kind shocked that oil and inflation are what they are and gold is under $1000/oz. wrt MERKX, i hold it as a substitute for cash not really an "investment" per se. it's up what 5 or 6 % so far this year, which is better than a money market for sure.
btw, i take delivery of all precious metals - it makes no sense to have them in a bank vault or in london storage or whatever. if the #$%* really hits the fan and you need the gold to barter with, what good will it do ya in a bank vault? sorry you're having a bad day...i wonder sometimes where u work and what it is you do...don't expect you to answer on here...just curious is all.
wrt politics, apparently you have come to the same conclusion i have about bush - only i used to live in austin and knew he was a moron from when he was govenor (he was instrumental in the legislation that let enron become, well, enron). wrt obama, the man can think..and he will absolutely destroy mccain in debates. unfortunately, mccain has gone back on everything that used to be mccain and is now simply a clone of boy george. the bad news (for me anyhow) is that obama just doesn't seem to get energy, which as you know if you have been reading my poop is what i believe is the greatest threat to the US economy, security, and equity markets. obama has been wishy washy on nuclear, said he wants windfall profits taxes (i wrote on SA why this is ridiculous), and doesn't seem to want to drill. anyhow, i am, like kurt vonnegut, a man without a country. i am ashamed at what has happened to the US, ashamed of our government, and ashamed at the people for letting it all happen. all that said, today was a good day on the river for me and i busted some golden brown trout :) who are you going to vote for? isn't mccain simply going to follow the (now proven) failed economic policies of georgie boy?? can we afford another 4 years of that? if so, the S&P will be under 1000 again soon..it might be anyway!
At this point, I don't think McCain is strong enough to carry the election. I don't mean to sound elitist, but I think that most Americans are really not aware that the mess we're in was the result of a deliberate and prolonged course of action orchestrated by Greenspan and then Bernanke, Congress, and, of course, the White House/ Treasury Dept.
( Who told the banks to start lending so that home ownership could be attained by any downtrodden deadbeat?) Americans are just looking for relief- relief from the gas pump and supermarket, relief from medical/insurance inflation, relief from falling home equity and shrinking jobs on the home front, relief from the war on the international level. They hear Obama's mantra for "change", and don't realize that "change" is all that will be left in their pockets. They want the government to "do" something. So, the Government is interceding in private business and nationalizing home lending ( thru Freddie and Fannie) wrecking the economy and causing our wealth to evaporate. Yes, that is "doing" something. In the meantime, the baby boomers are getting ready to collect social security. Any guess what that is going to look like in a few years? How about the rating agencies, talking about reducing the US government rating? I wonder what it will be like for investors when Brazil has a better debt rating than the mighty U.S.
Most Americans are unaware that oil/food is so expensive because the dollar is falling. Look how all those ethanol plants are failing. No surprise, of course. It's just unbelievable that our politicos can get behind a policy of turning food into energy, especially when it is so energy and water intensive. Although the time has not yet come, water will be as big a problem as energy is now .Look at GE, Veolia, Tetra Tech, Jacobs Engineering, Northwest Pipe, all water/infrastructure plays--maybe you can write an article about that. But, I digress.
I think if Obama gets into office, he can't go socialist in four years.The office always restricts the president, so how much damage can he inflict? As much as Jimmy Carter? I remember those days well, when Volcker was the most hated man in America. Now he is the holy man of sensible policy--almost a cult figure, in some circles.
And don't get me started on Nancy Pelosi. Let's send EVERYBODY some money. Hey, Nancy, how about getting your hands out of our pockets? How about de-linking health insurance to business and the government? How about allowing American business to innovate-isn't that what it does best? Why not allow them to turn their profits into R&D, rather than paying windfall taxes for all those people on the dole? How about allowing us to invest in our own retirements unimpeded, rather than have you raid the cookie jar called social security? How about going home to California to spread your sunshine there?
I also think (call me jaded) that the Republicans expect to lose this election so that Obama can become a one term president, and they can re-gain control of the White house. I realize that sounds crazy--maybe even paranoid.
I truly believe that McCain is the closest we can come to an old fashioned Democrat! He is the Hubert Humphrey of 2008. And how about Bob Barr?! I just remember him as a miserable, malicious malcontent during the Clinton impeachment hearings--thoroughly detestable. He's sure to take away a few of McCain's votes.
What a mess we are leaving our children and grandchildren. Check out Bloomberg--there was an interesting article today. Turns out that pension plans are now buying the re-packaged debt from the CDO/SIV debacle. You'd think they would learn from their mistakes-but not so long as the Fed and Treasury Department is there to bail them out with the dollars they are printing in the basement! Why don't they leave smart businessmen like Wilbur Ross to pick through that debt? How is it appropriate to put it into some poor working stiff's pension plan?
I don't know who I will vote for, and it probably doesn't matter. Either man is the wrong guy for the job. It's a case of "picking your poison."
And be careful with that Merk fund. The Euro and that basket of currencies is just as vulnerable as the US dollar. I think Merk opened up a yen fund. That may be a safe haven in the future. After all, Japan has had to contend with deflation for almost two decades. They are in a good position to profit, from here. Check out JOF. It's small cap. I still think the CanRoys are better than Merk Fund. Even with the foreign taxes, some are paying very handsomely, and monthly!
> User: you're all fluff - why don't you tell me *exactly* what i am
> wrong about instead of calling me a "liberal" and thinking you have
> actually said something. is it the US dollar drop i am wrong on?
> this is a fact that is easily verified. is it the deficits bush has
> run up that i am wrong on? this is also a fact easily verified. is
> it the performance of the S&P that i am wrong on? fact, easily verified.
> is it inflation? also a fact anyone with a brain knows, but unfortunately
> i cannot point to US gov statistics. so, User, *exactly* what is
> it that i am wrong about and what is so great about bush - please,
> tell me something of some substance. anyone can just throw stones...i
> did in kindergarten. grow up dude, be a man (or a woman?) and SAY
> something. wrt to iraqi oil, we WILL be pumping it out and would
> have been sooner if boy george had gone in with the number of troops
> his generals told him were needed. security has been the problem
> in case you are still on mars. that said, the oil contracts are going
> out to BP, XOM, TOT, CVX etc. etc and the US will soon be pumping
> what we went in for. thanks again for a real substantive comment
> (not).
>
> optionsgirl: i do have some SLV buried in the backyard and i agree
> with you that it appears to be more undervalued than gold when taking
> into account the historical ratio between the two. that said, i hafta
> say that i am kind shocked that oil and inflation are what they are
> and gold is under $1000/oz. wrt MERKX, i hold it as a substitute
> for cash not really an "investment" per se. it's up what 5 or 6 %
> so far this year, which is better than a money market for sure.
>
> btw, i take delivery of all precious metals - it makes no sense
> to have them in a bank vault or in london storage or whatever. if
> the #$%* really hits the fan and you need the gold to barter with,
> what good will it do ya in a bank vault? sorry you're having a bad
> day...i wonder sometimes where u work and what it is you do...don't
> expect you to answer on here...just curious is all.
>
> wrt politics, apparently you have come to the same conclusion i have
> about bush - only i used to live in austin and knew he was a moron
> from when he was govenor (he was instrumental in the legislation
> that let enron become, well, enron). wrt obama, the man can think..and
> he will absolutely destroy mccain in debates. unfortunately, mccain
> has gone back on everything that used to be mccain and is now simply
> a clone of boy george. the bad news (for me anyhow) is that obama
> just doesn't seem to get energy, which as you know if you have been
> reading my poop is what i believe is the greatest threat to the US
> economy, security, and equity markets. obama has been wishy washy
> on nuclear, said he wants windfall profits taxes (i wrote on SA why
> this is ridiculous), and doesn't seem to want to drill. anyhow, i
> am, like kurt vonnegut, a man without a country. i am ashamed at
> what has happened to the US, ashamed of our government, and ashamed
> at the people for letting it all happen. all that said, today was
> a good day on the river for me and i busted some golden brown trout
> :) who are you going to vote for? isn't mccain simply going to follow
> the (now proven) failed economic policies of georgie boy?? can we
> afford another 4 years of that? if so, the S&P will be under 1000
> again soon..it might be anyway!
>
>
options: nice rant :) i don't know where to begin...but the campers next door invited me over for a beer...so...maybe i will get back to this. that said, i am heading out of internet range for a week or two. i am sure all the "Users" on here will be glad to hear that!