Commodities Cool Off - Fast Money Recap (7/7/08)

by: Miriam Metzinger

Recap of Fast Money, Monday July 7.

S&P 500 Gets Bearish: Freddie Mac (FRE), Fannie Mae (FNM) Although oil dropped, stocks were still down on worries that housing woes aren't over. The S&P 500 finished one point shy of bear market levels, which the Dow and the Nasdaq have already reached. In such an environment, a $4 drop in oil won't have much of an effect, commented Jeff Macke. Pete Najarian says investors are not protecting themselves sufficiently with puts and says financials Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae were primarily responsible for Monday's down day. However, Guy Adami thinks the bond insurers might be good for a one day trade.

Will Merrill Sell? Merrill Lynch (MER), Black Rock (NYSE:BLK), Citigroup (NYSE:C), Annaly Capital (NYSE:NLY)

On potential legislation that would require financials to release more information on the value of their assets, Macke says the government should "back off" and such requirements will make things more difficult for financials. Merrill Lynch indicated it may sell part of its stake in BlackRock and the group thinks the amount sold will depend on the size of MER's writedown. Najarian would be careful investing in this sector and would buy puts. He noted options action in NLY indicates the stock may drop.

Oil Worries Wane: Suncor (NYSE:SU), Schlumberger (NYSE:SLB), Halliburton (NYSE:HAL)

As worries about a potential Middle East crisis waned somewhat, oil prices dropped and Joe Terranova thinks the trend could continue at least until the end of the week. He would use the selloff to buy SU, SLB and HAL, However, Adami thinks the environment for oil is not good and would trade with caution. Terranova says oil should be under $135 before buying refiners. Macke said refiners are the "snake pits of doom."

Commodities Cool: Potash (NYSE:POT), Alpha Natural (ANR), Walter Industries (NYSE:WLT), Patriot Coal (PCX)

Commodities fell on easing concerns about supply and the rise in the dollar. Adami doesn't think commodities are finished, but thinks the dollar may see a bottom. Macke would use the drop to buy POT but would use a stop loss as protection. He disagreed with Adami about the dollar, and called it "the saddest currency out there." Najarian would look at coal names ANR.WLT and PCX, but Karen Finerman thinks coal may be overvalued.

Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) Woos Yahoo (NASDAQ:YHOO) Again

Microsoft approached Yahoo once again concerning a buyout. And Yahoo's shares jumped 12%. The deal is offered on the condition that Yahoo's board will be replaced, and with Icahn involved, Najarian thinks the deal will likely get done, although not at the previous levels. Although MSFT seems undervalued, Adami doesn't see a move until its next earnings report.

Fools Rush In: Alcoa (NYSE:AA), Lockheed Martin (NYSE:LMT), Raytheon (NYSE:RTN) and Northrop (NYSE:NOC)

Investors aren't as keen to pick up stocks before earnings reports, since many expect bearish news. One example is Alcoa, which is not expected to give a strong report because of rising raw costs, although Adam notes it may be a good target for Vale. Adami says one exception to not jumping in may be defense stocks such as LMT, RTN and NOC.

Apple (OTC:APPL)'s Ripe for Picking? Juniper (NYSE:JNPR), Broadcom (BRCM), Research in Motion (RIMM)

On this Friday's release of Apple's 3G iPhone, which supports satellite navigation and a "third generation" wireless network, Apple shares rose on Monday. BMO Capital Markets analyst Keith Bachman thinks Apple could run out of phones, but will catch up with demand. Meanwhile, Piper Jaffray upgraded Juniper and Broadcom, and Najarian thinks the infrastructure buildout will be bullish for these companies. Macke however, prefers derivative plays. Najarian thinks Research in Motion is good, although it may be slightly overvalued.

Media Meltdown: Disney (NYSE:DIS)

Digital content is likely to threaten Disney's film and TV business, said Lehman analyst Anthony DiClemente, who downgraded the stock, and added media companies in general will face the same problems suffered by the music industry earlier in the decade. While Disney's theme parks have been performing well, DiClemente says fuel prices will cut short this trend.

Final Trade:

Macke: United States Oil ETF (NYSEARCA:USO), Najarian: XTO Energy (XTO), Finerman: Pride International (NYSE:PDE), Adami: Celgene (NASDAQ:CELG)

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