Well, it's Friday and I'll either be a hero or "toxic" as one chat board poster describes me. As a SA author, I put my confidence in Zalicus (ZLCS) on the line. At a recent Wedbush PAC conference, CFO Renz stated that the firm hoped to launch Z160 in August. In the same presentation, slide #25 also stated that. So what did I do? I wrote articles representing that view. I told investors that come today everything would come to a head. Not a bad thought considering my first entry into Zalicus was below $0.80/share and the stock has since risen to Thursday's close at $1.43/share.
I suppose my optimism and belief in management has some influence on my hunch about Synavive results. I'll admit that I'm nervous, but I'm still holding and considering my options. I've studied the chemistry of Synavive since 2010. I'm no novice to investing and I accept my fate. I take responsibility for my investments.
Hour after hour, I'm studying the situation at Zalicus checking and rechecking the facts. Here's what I've found:
First, Synavive's results are closer than even I calculated. On May 4, 2012, Zalicus released news that the SYNERGY trial was fully enrolled: 292 patients in a study that was targeting 250 patients. Over-enrolled. I find that most curious, but I have no answer. Given that the SYNERGY trial was a 12-week study, that would mean that the study may have completed before the end of July.
Or should I take the date of the clinicaltrials.gov website? The June 1, 2012, update would mean the study was completed by August 24, 2012. Of course, there's lag time, but don't forget an 8-K must be filed within four days of a material event. Yes, I checked. I'm holding at the time of this article and I'll protect every dime I've earned (without the government's help) because I invest to make money, not bemoan I'm too lazy to look up the latest link to three patent applications published by Zalicus on Thursday.
Second, making money requires you to weigh the company's fundamentals, catalysts and stock charts. Here's what I see: the stock price is $1.43/share on the day of anticipated news. This to me is the spirt of SA -- fundamental articles that bring investors cutting-edge news in advance of others. The RSI, MACD, and Bollinger band have more than enough space to run to a new high. But don't take my word. Take the word of an article (that advertises CNBC's Jim Cramer's team) that was published on Thursday that with enough volume, Zalicus could break $2/share. I'd say, "Lock and load! Get ready for the run! Forces much bigger than me are afoot!"
Gee, you'd think that they were reading my articles and studying the same charts. The chart is very bullish. Thursday ended with a 3.62% gain. You see, fundamentals and charts do count and the best investors learn how to use both.
Third, once again I informed Zalicus shareholders that Zalicus had published three critical ion channel patent applications tied to the current program.
I've studied Zalicus over three years, enough so that one analyst, Jason Napodano of Zacks, jokes about my frequent articles on Zalicus. Okay, he's right, but I invest to make money not win a Pulitzer prize or to earn a measly penny per view. I ran with Antares (ATRS), an awesome firm and won. Now my plan is to win over and over with Zalicus, a small biotech firm that has an ion channel portfolio that's about to change the way pain is treated.
Finally, the publication Thursday of those three ion channel patent applications shook me. They shook me because I've never seen Zalicus publish more than one patent on any given day. Zalicus is working overtime to protect its intellectual property and from people like me who actually read their patents.
But the truth is out there. Zalicus has published three patent applications all tied to T-type and sodium-type ion channels and this on the day before the last day of August when Z160 is promised to launch. Now some might say that's a coincidence, but I've never known the stoic CEO Corrigan to operate that way. He's about as strategic as they come including his board seat on Cubist (CBST) or his bullish promise now fulfilled that the 32 mg version of Exalgo with Covidien (COV) would be approved.
Mark H. N. Corrigan doesn't work to lose. CEO Corrigan wouldn't put his name behind Synavive unless he thought it would succeed in a Phase IIB clinical trial or at least have great odds of succeeding. Neither would his former VP (once temporary CEO) Christopher Gallen, who separated from Zalicus, but rather than take a cash payment preferred to keep his shares in Zalicus. Drs. Corrigan and Gallen are not losers, not by any stretch. They play to win and so do I as I sit here fully loaded up to the chin with Zalicus shares.
Therefore, when push comes to shove, I know the risk that Synavive could fail, but I'm going to take responsibility for my choices rather than resort to name-calling. But a final word to all the critics out there: I positively do not believe that the recent S-3 filing implies imminent dilution. I have unwavering confidence in the integrity of this company's CFO and CEO who have stated that the firm has more than enough funds to go into 2013 even 2014.
I expect that come today and next Tuesday, Zalicus is going to soar. I wish everyone the very best in investing. Remember, never invest more than you're willing to lose and do everyone else a favor: take responsibility for your investment choices. "Sticks and stones break my bones, but names never ..." Well, sometimes, being called names does hurt, but if you invest to make money, counting how much you've earned seems to make the pain go away.