CNN/Money: Housing Rebound in Sight!

There it is! Right on the front page of Yahoo from none other than CNN/Money.com so it must be true. The bottom in housing will soon be here and you know what that means...

The link is to this article (from either CNN/Money or Fortune) that cites the recent plunge in housing starts to 17-year lows as clear evidence of the bottom sighting.

Well, this may turn out to be a bottom for homebuilders, and real estate agents may even see things pick up a little bit, but as far as home prices go, don't count on any rebound anytime soon.

There's that little problem of inventory to deal with and, as noted here many times before, until the months of supply statistic comes down from its current freakishly high levels, don't look for any rebound in home prices.

Why does the mainstream media continue to write such stupid things?

This one seems to have been a case of a Yahoo! headline writer getting a bit too excited after reading a story that talked about an eventual bottom in housing.

Maybe the Yahoo! staffer just had his HELOC frozen and thought he'd do what he could to help stop home prices from falling any further in order to facilitate an "early thaw" on his source of overconsumption.

Comments

[Still Renting:]

The bottom is most definitely in sight - depending on the power of your telescope...

2008 Jul 08 11:38 AM

[Dave T:]

Excuse me but the bottom is no where in sight!!! What could "in sight" be based on? Certainly not reasonable financing or ability to pay on outrageous prices still or disposable income since corporate greed has robbed the American people into poverty or.....

2008 Jul 08 12:06 PM

[jimsep:]

Builders are still building. That is the problem. Until they stop, the supply of unsold homes keeps going up. They have to stop building for us to have a bottom.

What don't they get about this?

2008 Jul 08 01:08 PM

[ArnoldCountry:]

The bottom is in sight for a blind man...

2008 Jul 08 01:15 PM

[WAKEUP:]

HOUSING IS DEAD. BURY IT.

2008 Jul 08 01:27 PM

[User 142030:]

Glad to see Iacono challenging silly media comments.

2008 Jul 08 02:40 PM

[ArnoldCountry:]

I am glad he has such a broad sense of humor. You would have to be the biggest idiot on the planet at this time to think that housing is turning around and Mr. Iacono says it in the nicest way.

2008 Jul 08 04:54 PM

[Financial C...:]

The Yahoo Staffer must be a real estate agent too!! Only realtors can write moronic stuff like this. In my opinion, it's going to take awhile for home prices to be inline with household incomes. Also, the price to rent ratio is still astronomical. I don't see a housing bottom until 2011.

2008 Jul 09 01:16 AM

[Budapest Boy:]

At first I thought this was a joke. Anyhow, we have at least 4 more years to go before any kind of rebound happens. There is not A SINGLE thing that indicates that the economy/housing may be on the path of recovery.

2008 Jul 09 03:07 AM

[cobblestone:]

Instead of or in addition to months of supply, it would be interesting see the Number of Homes in Inventory added to the graph above. My guess would be, with homebuilders slowing down their new home construction and both builders and home sellers lowering their prices, that the number of homes in inventory is decreasing (rapidly?). Whenever and as the litany of problems are resolved and monthly absorption increases, the Months of Supply should rapidly decrease.

2008 Jul 09 08:31 AM

[rhea:]

I, too, get exasperated with dumb stories in the press about the housing market. We have a long, long way to go before things will be looking up. As for me, I will be buying a house when prices finally come back down to earth.

2008 Jul 09 10:09 AM

[resnah:]

Perhaps. You missed a golden opportunity to point out housing prices must not rebound to the levels that brought on this debacle, or it will be "deja vu all over again".
Wages are the driving force behind how much houses ought to sell for. How many times are taxpayers going to have to bail out "government", whatever that means, before Congress gets a clue. It is not just rich people who will go away when the 'goose is slaughtered', congress critters will, too. But, if they are stupid enough to think they won't be impacted, fine. I am ready. Hope you are, too.

2008 Jul 09 01:04 PM

[eaglesdontf...:]

Housing rebound, yeah. Anyone watching the mayhem on Wall Street today?

Folks, this mess was a complicity between the lenders, the borrowers and the Congress, under pressure from disadvantaged groups who felt left out of the American Dream. Let them all stew in their own juices. The Fed and Congress looked the other way as the mortgage industry violated every requirement for safe lending. This was a political ploy by the champions of the downtrodden to enable people who could not qualify, much less afford, a home to buy a home.

I have no sympathy for the lenders, marginal sympathy for the borrowers, and want every incumbent member of Congress to lose.

2008 Jul 09 04:45 PM

[Jaibones:]

Long term housing investment for fun and profit is a losing game. Population growth drives this investment and it ain't happening. When these boomers go through the tube to the other side, who the hell is going to buy their homes?

My favorite example of Julian Simon's genius is this: ask your friends how many in Mom's family (as a kid), how many kids did Mom have, and how many kids do you have?

My numbers go 10 - 5 - 2. Two generations from population bomb to the replacement rate...

2008 Jul 09 05:03 PM

[azrealtor:]

Not so fast partners! The resale home market bottomed out in Metro Phoenix (the 5th largest U.S. city) a couple of months ago and properties below $300K and above $3M are selling.
Has there been a devaulation from the inflated values of '04 & '05? You betcha. More realistic pricing (and selling) is now ocurring.

2008 Jul 09 05:36 PM

[Anon 1:50:]

Any investment is a gamble, and those who "bet the farm" and lost in this latest fluctuation may be financially hurting, but they are not dead.

For those of us who thought that home ownership was always going to be out of reach, this is a sterling opportunity! I, and many of my fellow renters are pounding the listings looking for that property that we might now be able to afford.

I found mine, and the offer has been accepted.

There is pent-up demand, and a finite supply. That the housing market will recover is a given.

It's just foolish to try to predict 'when'.

2008 Jul 09 05:39 PM

[NeoCon:]

Jaibones, the numbers from my family are 9-3-2, however..., you declined to include immigration, legal or otherwise. I remember a US population of 220 million. We just passed 300 million. They're coming from somewhere, and they all need housing of one sort or another. And we are seeing the market react with dropping prices. I've seen ads from developers in Florida, buy a home at full price, get a beach home freakin' free!

2008 Jul 10 03:16 AM