Bespoke's Interactive Earnings Database is a useful tool for traders that like to play earnings reports. For more than 2,500 stocks, we provide the trading patterns around each quarterly report since 2001. With Alcoa (AA) reporting after the close today, below we provide a snapshot of its historical earnings from our database. As shown, we provide the percentage of the time that the stock beats estimates and guides higher, along with the stock's average percent change when the company beats or misses estimates. We also provide the average change from the open to the close based on the direction that the stock gaps following earnings reports.
Alcoa has only beaten estimates 37% of the time since late 2001. The stock averages a decline of 88 bps on the first trading day following earnings reports as well, so it usually reacts negatively. When the stock gaps up on earnings, it averages a decline of 1.35% from the open to the close, and when it gaps down, it averages a decline of 27 bps. So regardless of the direction the stock takes after hours, traders typically sell shares from the open to the close.
Alcoa isn't a great example, but there are many stocks that show significant trends in regards to trading higher from the open to the close, or beating estimates, or gapping higher, etc. These trends can all be found in our Earnings Database, of which you can purchase by emailing email@example.com or calling 914-315-1248. Please click here to learn more.