Advanced Battery Technologies: A Steal of a Stock

Company Profile:

Advanced Battery Technologies (ABAT.OB) manufactures and distributes rechargeable Polymer Lithium-Ion [PLI] batteries, which are used in mine lamps, electric automobiles, motorcycles, cell phones, notebook computers, walkie-talkies and personal digital assistance devices. PLI batteries are superior to traditional rechargeable batteries and are leak resistant, less energy dense, environmentally friendly, with high design flexibility, allowing the company to produce a battery as thin as 0.5 mm. The company is headquartered and operates primarily in China.

ABAT is a holding company and is involved in the business of PLI batteries through its subsidiaries, Cashtech Investment Limited (Cashtech) and Heilongjiang Zhong Qiang Power-Tech Co.,Ltd. (ZQ Power-Tech). ZQ Power-Tech is a company based in People’s Republic of China, in which Cashtech owns 100% interest.

Sales  

	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	TTM
Sales $Mil	0	1	4	16	32	37
Operating Income $Mil	0	-2	0	7	10	13
Income Tax $Mil	—	—	—	-1	0	1
Net Income $Mil	0	-2	0	8	10	13
Earnings/Share $	0.00	-0.23	-0.01	0.17	0.22	0.27
EPS (Cont Ops) $	0.00	-0.20	0.00	0.20	0.20	0.30
Dividends/Share $	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
Total Shares Mil	1	17	37	47	47	49

Quarterly Income

 Click to enlarge

 

 

Free Cash Flow  

2005	2006	2007	TTM
-1	4	1	9
3	0	0	0
-3	4	1	8

Profitability

Click to enlarge

Competition

Mkt Cap $Mil	Sales $Mil
Advanced Battery Technologies, Inc.	271.0	37
Industry Average	2,187	1,750
ABB, Ltd.	62,069	29,183
Matsushita Electric Industrial Co., Ltd.	48,199	79,390
Emerson Electric Company	38,867	23,784
Corning Inc.	31,750	6,170
Danaher Corporation	24,252	11,533
Eaton Corporation	11,978	13,416
Nidec Corporation	9,529	5,396
Cooper Industries, Ltd.	6,908	6,055
SPX Corporation	6,477	5,200
Rockwell Automation	6,232	5,390
Quanta Services, Inc.	5,262	2,932
Suntech Power Holdings Co., Ltd.	5,185	1,348
Ametek, Inc.	4,993	2,243
Makita Corporation	4,909	2,399
Black & Decker Corporation	3,360	6,482
Dresser-Rand Group, Inc.	3,117	1,714
Lincoln Electric Holdings, Inc.	3,103	2,352
Energy Conversion Devices, Inc.	2,654	209
Valmont Industries, Inc.	2,443	1,581
Hubbell, Inc.	2,410	2,536
GrafTech International, Inc.	2,385	1,067

Ownership

Shares Outstanding	49,000,000
Fund Ownership	490,000
Total# of Funds	8

Technical Analysis

• ABAT’s beta is 1.8, slightly higher than I like. Albeit, given that it’s considered a Chinese stock, the market’s volatility does impact it. A point definitely to be considered.
• In the last year the market’s been bullish on it, albeit the trends in the last 10 days have been bearish. It’s been oversold. This is a pure reflection of the investor psyche in the past few weeks—an anomaly from my point of view.
• ABAT’s 80 day resistance level is at 6.26 and if it breaks through that, there’s no reason why it won’t trade >9$, which incidentally is also its 52 week high.

My Decision

Per my estimates, the fair value of ABAT assuming conservative sector and S&P growth rates is $9-$13. Its current trading price has a 60% margin of safety— a strong selling point for me. It’s a steal and will be a great value-add to my portfolio, given it’s currently trading at $5 and change.

The industries it services, namely, mine lamps, electric automobiles, motorcycles, cell phones, notebook computers, walkie-talkies and personal digital assistance devices are here to stay and are very relevant to our daily lives. It has shown potential for aggressive growth in the past 3 years and even more through the recent downturn. This company is a survivor and I’m willing to bet on it. A BUY for my portfolio, for sure!

Disclosure: Following my recent analysis of ABAT, in the spirit of full disclosure that I’ve always maintained, I bought ABAT @ $5.33 earlier today.

 

Editor's Note: Disclosure Updated on 7/16/08.

 

Comments

[EE]

LOOKS GREAT! I'M FULLY INVESTED SO I'LL KEEP A WATCH ON ABAT. I'M IN XDSL.OB WHICH IS IN THE EMBRYO STAGE. MAY SWITCH TO YOUR PICK IF IT STAGNATES BY NOV.

[stockerati]

EE, my picks are specifically designed for my investing style. I share my analysis and numbers with the community along with my personal decision. Make sure to check if this matches your style or the numbers line with your expectations and the company's risk-reward profile suits you before you act on articles like this here or anywhere else. I'd do that myself and I recommend everyone does that too.

[Peter W]

Could you share with us what valuation method you are using to calculate your "fair value" of $9-$13?

[paultaut]

prayer on my part, plus it will get a lot of visibility at the Olympics.

Other than that maybe earnings double those of last year, with a little bit of an energy boost, you could peddle your way home but in China ABAT's batteries would power your bicycle.

[Huskers2009]

I'm fairly new to investing, less than one year. I went to Phil Town's calculator and figured 11.00 and some change for fair value months ago and dove in. He leads you step by step to figure out a sticker price for a stock. Can't miss.
Guess I may have done the numbers right. I love this stocks future.

[jlounsbury59]

I calculate fair value at $11.50. I own several thousand shares bought between $3.50 and $4.50 plus 20 Sept $2.50 call contracts and 20 $5.00 call contracts (also Sept).

I'm glad to see some one else who seems to have made a similar analysis.

I am researching other opportunities in the Li ion battery field and so far have also bought 20 Sept 5.00 call contracts on QBAK. I am looking for good entry points to start accumulating stock there as well.

[paultaut]

The future for batteries in cars will have to include UltraCapacitators

[Peter W]

I think the idea is interesting but could any of you (Stockerati preferred) actually back-up your idea with numbers? What basic assumptions are you making going forward to value this company? What model or reasonable multiple backs up such a bullish price target? Why is the market so far off on the value of this company?

Simply cut/pasting the company profile and financials does not qualify as analysis.

[theconfusedand worriedguy]

i still like enersys - ens - with revenue over 2 billion and international balance of clients and factories.

[stockerati]

The heckler's back...

[Peter W]

Answer the question. You're presenting this stock as a steal based upon a "fair value" of $9-$13, a possible 100%+ return. It's reasonable that you should be able to back up how you calculated that number. All I'm asking is that you share how you got that number.

If you consider that heckling then you should stop putting out "fair value" you can not back up.

[stockerati]

Peter, you can learn about basic investing from investopedia. You have good questions which are answered in the 101 tutorial there. If you do know what you claim to, do author an article that backs your demands. I use my proprietary method to evaluate the stocks for MY portfolio. Use your judgement or use the basic investing tools out there to do your own analysis. I'm here to share data and not to teach how to evaluate stocks. You, unfortunately, my friend are perceived as a heckler even if that's not what you intend to do. Let's see some action beyond talk from you-- author an article and show us that you really know what you claim to know.

All I can tell about my methods is that it's a variant of intrinsic value and DCF analysis. It may be beyond you to understand that. Be a real critique and it'll be definitely appreciated. But I'm beginning to feel that's too much to ask of you

[investor 911]

Peter W,

Why would you bother asking this stockerati when you know he/she is here just to promote this stock. At least Tony Sagami from the Weiss group showed himself when he recommended CBAK. This guy/gal hides behind the curtain.

[stockerati]

Investor 911, I'm not here to promote any stock. If you visit my blog (from where this article is auto-consumed) you'll know why I share what I share. My blog's at stockerati.com

This is just my analysis that I share out to like-minded investors who follow my blog and share my philosophies. You can use it as a data-point to make a more informed decision or choose to ignore it-- your prerogative.

If you've any feedback or discussion you'd like to participate or drive on basis of this article, I'm all for it. I'm fortunate enough to witness a lot of it on some of my other posts.

Thanks

[Peter W]

I hold an MBA from a top 10 B-School and work as an equity analyst for a ~$1B HF. I have learned from world-class professors as well as portfolio managers with decades of experience. You're a hack investor pretending to the job of an equity analyst.

I have done hundreds of valuations which involve a little more than simply cut/paste my "analysis." I back up my conclusions with realistic assumptions through thorough due diligence. A DCF valuation is the model which attempts to uncover intrinsic value, so your claim of using a "variant of intrinsic value and DCF analysis" is hilarious.

Additionally, you claim to have a proprietary method for evaluating stocks but in your bio you note, "He believes in complete TRANSPARENCY and shares all his research and conclusions with the world" What a contradiction you are. Someone who has never worked in the investment management wants his readers to assume he has an expertise in valuation but refuses to share his most basic assumptions.

[stockerati]

For being an equity analyst, you sure spend way too much time on Seeking Alpha trying to pick up tips from amateur investors. You must be soooo good at what you do and I'm sure your MBA taught you how to do that. There are 2 common ways to do DCF analysis
Equity-Approach
-Flows to equity approach (FTE)
Entity-Approach:
-Adjusted present value approach (APV)
-Weighted average cost of capital approach (WACC)
-Total cash flow approach (TCF)
They all compute intrinsic values. Then there's the famous Graham method to compute these values-- this is commonly known as intrinsic value or Graham intrinsic value. I use a variant of GIV and TCF. That's all you need to know, Mr investor.

Well, I think you understand this now. See, you learn something new everyday on SA. Sure makes up for what you didn't learn at school.

[Wojna12]

Peter W i applaud u for looking for indepth info. if ud like plz do keep in touch with me to swap some investor ideas(funny thing, i got exact same name/initial) kande_raver12@hotmail.... (its old so i dont use but will check for email from u[plz make subject easy to recognize thats it u aobut ivnesting. gave this one out as dont want spam in my work email. u can understand. )

take my comment anyway u like it btw, ignore my grammar
lemme put it this way
DCF is a great method!!!....if u want to make ur final number whatever u want it to be. so many variables to change. lemme guess, since abat's debt is interest free(loan from chairman) u got it 0% when calculating wacc........
furthermore, u need to assume the future growth rate, and frankly for a small cap stock like this is plain ridiculous. we all know(or everypone should) that the terminal value is what makes the largest contribution in a DCF, so by overstating earlier growth rates or by inputing even a 1% pt diff in the terminal growth ur gunna shoot urself in the foot.

thats the short explanation for why dcf is a crock for this company. talk to any investment banker and theyll tell u they can make a dcf do w/e they want.

now lets take the famous grahams method. o boy....lets start with that this isnt a value stock!! its a growth stock. this isnt a good way to vlaue this company but lemme give a quick lowdown for some ppl(very basic).
assume company gos bankrupt or you take 100% ownership(which i doubt ud be able to with the crazy ownership laws in PRC through 2 subsidiaries for abat-i know nothing aobut the ownership so i might be wrong on jsut the pt which doesnt invalidate the below)
cash 22M
a/r & prepaid(50% allowance at least as there no way ud enforce it-chinas very much who u know etc and once co goes bankrupt etc u wont be able to enforce-court costs will be more than ull gain often)
a/r 3.8M . inv (75%) 1.4M
advance supplier(33%) 0.8M
ppe(50%) 7.8Mgoodwill,intabigle... no brand, its from purchase where overpaid the chairman....)
liabilities:
payable - 1.2M
other/accrue - 0.7M
officer loan 1.1M

total aset: 35M(being generous with 50% for inv & a/r)
liab: 4M
net: 31M
shares o/s: 51M approx (will be more if 4M taken by institutions 2nite - up to 55M) forgot exact numerbs doing off top of head

31M/51M(to make it even higher val, instead of use 55)
0.56$/share ......9$ a share right.....

its simple, graham dont work for this!!!!!GROWTH NOT VALUE

best method. P/E ratio, P/S ratio, gross margin, operating margin, net margin. that im srue u can figure out urself.

heres the catch!!!its a growth story right.prob is theyre at max capacity. MAX capacity. wont be any growth until new equip setup in plants which takes quite a while. expect them to top out 40-48M sales/yr, approx 10-12M/qtr depending pon product mix(havent had chance to call them to find out wip mix)

having said all that. i jsut looked at the stock today morning, did my analysis.
.27-.31 eps for whole 2008 yr. 2 factors. prod mix. whether 4M shares taken by institution 2nite.

(industry)
15.9 p/e yields 4.29 - 4.93/share
10 p/bk yields 5.6/share

can do various method-enterprise value, p/s, book, earning. can do mix of them, can not use industry but smaller selection of stocks for their multiple.

i personally like wieghted avg of industry(not sector), 1 posterchild company, any comparables companies. weighting u can play with from experience/past historical analysis youve done on other companies.
or. 3-5 comparables companies. alter p/e by % using, customer & supplier concentration, prod mix, geography etc(porters 5 forces give basic for this)

now. im considerin buying this, but im holding out to find out mon if institutions acquire their additional shares. also need to call mon to find out expansion schedule.

sorry for length.sory if small rounding/miscalc(did it super quick right now as i will NOT be posting my full calcs)

btw stokerati....ur method sounds like abuncha junk.

[Wojna12]

shouldve added their post expansion growth calcs, but ill leave that one 2 u. not 2 hard.

just added this so i dont get jumped on that im not tkain into account future growth(ive done the calc but a 1yr delay will DRASTICALLY) cut ur returns which can be had elsewhere and returning to this company just prior to expansion completion.