The S&P 500 tracking SPY ETF is currently trading up 1.24% in the pre-market following the FNM and FRE news over the weekend. We found all opening gaps of 1% or more since SPY began trading back in 1993 to see what the market tends to do from the open to the close. Since '93, the SPY has gapped up more than one percent 122 times. Of these 122 occurrences, it has continued higher from the open to the close 69 times (56%) and averaged a gain of 0.23% (the median gain is 0.28%).
Below we highlight all SPY gaps of 1% or more during the current bear market. Of the 11 times it has happened since last October, SPY has gone higher 6 times and averaged a gain of 0.48%. It has continued higher by at least another one percent 5 times, and reversed and gone lower by more than one percent twice. Based on this small amount of data, prospects for a further rally after the open are somewhat promising.
click to enlarge