XM / Sirius: Cowen Sees Approval Soon

Are we finally near the end of the seemingly endless approval process for the proposed merger of XM Satellite Radio (XMSR) and Sirius Satellite Radio (SIRI)?

Cowen’s Tom Watts thinks so. This morning he wrote in a research note that approval of the merger is “finally at hand and should occur by the end of the month.” He also says that financing “is done” for XM’s outstanding bonds that allow investors to put them back to the company in the event of change of control. Watts notes that XMSR shares as of Friday’s close traded at a 20% discount to the merger terms of 4.6 shares of SIRI shares.

On the other hand, Watts also trimmed his forecast for 2008 net adds for the company to 1.474 million from 1.575 million to reflect economic softening. He nonetheless still sees “substantial positive EBITDA” in 2009. He also reduced his EPS estimates: Watts now see a 2008 loss of $1.94 a share, compared to a loss of $1.62 previously. For 2009, his loss estimate widens to $1.65, from 99 cents, and for 2010, his estimates loss jumps to $1.11, from 18 cents.

Comments

[PROTECT AND...:]

same old crap..............I could have told you that!!!!!

2008 Jul 14 01:06 PM

[omagod500:]

seems the merger will always be approved the day after tomorrow

2008 Jul 14 01:32 PM

[VMx:]

Omagod, how right you are. Analysts were saying the same thing in July 2007.

2008 Jul 14 02:13 PM

[PROTECT AND...:]

but rest asure there will be a day, one day real soon when we can look back at say it's a done deal.

2008 Jul 14 02:17 PM

[tech man:]

I believe that is will be before the end of the month. T.M.

2008 Jul 14 03:08 PM

[muley101:]

It's really amazing that the Treasury Dept and Fed Reserve can get the Bear Sterns and Fannie/Freddie deals done over a weekend but this BS has taken a year and a half!

2008 Jul 14 04:45 PM

[novistor:]

I can almost here ka-ching uuhhh... I mean the merger approval soon.

2008 Jul 14 09:39 PM

[novistor:]

I mean - ( hear )

2008 Jul 14 09:40 PM

[gekko13:]

One needs to look no further than the pending merger between XM and Sirius Satellite to see cronyism, corruption, and bureaucratic ignorance at its best. And the guilty party is the FCC and congress, who are being paid off by lobbyists who are against the merger. This, after the Department of Justice ruled back in March that the merger was not monopolistic and would benefit consumers. This after the DOJ gave the green light WITHOUT the companies having to give concessions. The proposed merger is a mouse compared to other mergers in history, with the combined market cap of the companies hovering near 5.6 billion dollars. Yet it is the longest running merger proposal in history, surpassing 400 days! Meanwhile, Exxon and Mobil, two oil behemoths were allowed to merge relatively smoothly, considering the monopolistic concerns involved in that one. (How do you like gas prices today?) And now Anheiser Busch is going to be gobbled up by a foreign entity in three shakes of a lamb's tail. The actions, or rather, INACTIONS by the FCC concerning XM/Sirius wreak of BLATANT POLITICAL CORRUPTION. And you want Freddie and Fannie to be run by the same filth? And people wonder why our country is so screwed up?

2008 Jul 14 10:12 PM

[Merger Mania:]

I am so tired of reading this same old crap!! "Satellite Radio Merger Will be Soon." And then nothing happens!!

2008 Jul 14 10:17 PM

[BerkeleyBob:]

I am a Sirius subscriber but long ago closed out my position in its stock. Good product, poor investment. The politicians and bureaucrats are far too influenced (indebted) to NAB and RIAA. I feel sorry for Mel Karmazin who had to put up with inept questioning and worse rhetoric from the House committee hearings on the merger. I doubt there will be much interest in the "minority" channel access required as a price tag...

2008 Jul 15 01:19 PM

[Abe:]

What will the price be of Sirius if the merger is approved?

2008 Jul 16 10:25 AM

[Slimsum:]

$2.56 a share.

2008 Jul 16 11:46 AM

[oregonduck:]

It is quiet. No activity at the FCC and no filings since the 14th. Is Tate through fingering herself yet?

2008 Jul 16 12:20 PM

[oregonduck:]

Sirius/XM is NOT ON THE AUG 1 AGENDA.

hraunfoss.fcc.gov/edoc...

Hopefully, they will announce it before the meeting.

2008 Jul 16 08:30 PM