China, Russia Exceptions to Global Economic Slowdown

China and Russia are the only two major economies showing signs of expansion, according the OECD’s latest composite leading economic indicators. North America, and most of Europe are indicating a slowdown while Brazil and India are in a downturn. Indicators for Italy and Japan showed small gains in May but were lower than a year ago.

The OECD’s CLI for all OECD countries fell 0.5 point in May and was down 4.6% from a year earlier.

Monthly and (yearly) individual country figures were as follows:

US -.04 (-4.9)

Canada -0.8 (-3.0)

UK -0.5 (-3.8)

France -0.6 (-4.2)

Germany -0.4 (-4.4)

Italy +0.2 (-3.3)

China +2.0 (+1.9)

Russia +0.9 (+2.9)

Brazil +0.1 (-1.6)

India -0.7 (-4.1) (April data)

Comments

[ksmithdc:]

Thank you Wal-Mart!

2008 Jul 14 08:21 PM

[johnthebear:]

So, how long can Russia go on? Depends on OIL. That is the primary thing they have to sell on the world market.

What about China? When they implode due to slowdowns of their primary markets and with the huge losses in their markets and banking sectors, steamed with high inflation.... you have to wonder if the government will survive. Won't be pretty IMO.

2008 Jul 15 06:30 AM

[Russian Bull:]

Johnthebear...when was the last time you were in Moscow Russia? Yes, while I agree that the oil props up the economy in Russia for now, that is quickly changing. The Russians are re-tooling their auto industry, their oil SERVICES industry, and their agricultural industry. Last month I was in Russia twice and the country is moving forward even more quickly than I would have imagined even 24 months ago.

That said, there are problems; corruption and red tape are still very bad; getting a visa into the country is challenging; and the Ruble (while undervalued) still has the stigma of the 90s attached to it.

As for surviving the global financial crisis...the Russian Finance industry is very simplistic and I think this will serve them well in the future as our banks pass through the housing MBS blow up, into the credit card CBS blow up; and finally into the wave of derivatives failures.

2008 Jul 15 03:29 PM

[johnthebear:]

Russian Bull, so you think that will be enough to pull the USA out of possible depression conditions... like WWII? We are talking about the next 12 months and how things will look then, not 20 years from now. Sorry would have loved to visit Russia, but with our cheap dollar, forget it!

It may take WWIII with the Muslims to pull us out of depression, if the liberal crats have not already surrendered!

You did not mention the possible revolution in China? Not exactly a tower of strength when you get to the truth of where the world is heading in the next 2 years.

2008 Jul 15 11:16 PM