Gas Lines Coming This Fall 79 comments
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Gas lines are not hard to find. This fall, you will likely see them at your local gas station:
- There were spot shortages during the 2007 harvest in North and South Dakota.
- A home heating oil crisis will occur when cold weather forces empty tanks to be filled.
- Increasing mortgage foreclosures illustrate that people are choosing between their cost of commuting to work and house payment.
- Fuel and food riots occur where people that cannot borrow or buy oil (examples):
- June 13, 2008, 2 people killed in fuel riots in Spain and Portugal.
- July 12, 2008, 13 people killed in fuel riots in Yemen.
The purpose of this essay is to highlight petroleum inventory issues likely to cause shortages this fall. Several events can create instant, grave shortages. Following is an incomplete list of known risks. There are still more unknown risks of unknown magnitude. As explained below, gas lines will be accompanied by a price jump of about $1.50 per gallon, even if crude oil does not increase in price.
Inventories
Inventories provide the cushion to buffer fuel deliveries snags. So long as the inventories are sufficient, the snags that could halt delivery stay small, and there will be no gas lines.
Inventories are depleting. In the graph from EIA TWIP report from July 9, 2008, the blue background wave is the historic range of inventories. The orange line and dots are weekly reports. Summer inventories normally trend down. This year the rate of depletion is more severe than usual. Actual inventories can soon set historic lows. As inventory dips below safety margins, spot shortages will occur as experienced last fall in the Dakotas.
Oil’s Long and Fragile Supply Chain
Oil has a long and fragile supply chain. Inventory at each stage is required to provide a buffer against production variations. As inventories shrink, the likelihood of shortages increase. There were spot diesel shortages during the 2007 harvest in North and South Dakota. There are spot shortages in weaker economies in the world. Spot shortages are a the leading indicator of wider supply disruptions.
Debt
The falling value of the dollar is an indicator of the risk due to borrowing to buy a consumable. The scale of uncertainty increases with debt and dependence.
We are borrowing from our children to buy oil; $302 billion in 2006, $331 billion in 2007 and about $700 billion in 2008. Borrowing to buy a consumable is eroding the capital base. Poorly capitalized debt is a trap, as was recently illustrated by the evaporation of Bear Stearns (BSC) and plummeting share value of Freddie Mac (FRE) and Fannie Mae (FNM), and IndyMac's (IMB) collapse. When there is a mortgage crisis at 4.8% unemployment, what will happen when vast numbers of people lose their jobs in energy outages?
Third world countries that cannot borrow to buy oil are facing gas lines and riots now. It is difficult to conceive of how the US can continue to borrow and avoid the same consequences. When that crisis arrives and if caused by debt, it is likely to happen very quickly and could cut supplies by 70%.
Weather
Uncertainty of supply from the Gulf of Mexico is especially high at this time. Current imports from the region are at historic lows as noted in the downward blue line in the following EIA graph:
Imports from Mexico and Venezuela are especially important because shipping time from their oil fields is less than a week. To get equivalent imports for Saudi Arabia takes more than 20 days and uses 4 to 8 times as many ships.
The following graph indicates what will happen to oil imports if a major hurricane hits any of the significant oil regions between Venezuela and Louisiana. A drop of 1 million barrels per day from current depleted inventories will shock the US supply chain.
We have allowed our entire economy to be at risk from a single weather event.
Click to enlarge
Politics
If you think politicians will not start a war because it would be stupid or unnecessary, then I have a bridge I would like to sell you. Sequences of even small events can cascade out of control. In the world today there are plenty of small and large risks that indicate we are not far from an avalanche. The invasion of Iraq might yet cause a cascade. Pulling out of Iraq may also create a cascade. Uncertainty rules our time and will become more unstable as consequences of Peak Oil reveal themselves.
Politics can only cause oil prices to jump. Lowering oil prices will result only from years of work to make most transportation independent of oil. Policy makers can facilitate this transition with Advanced Renewable Tariffs (free market power generation) and Performance Governing (setting performance standards for infrastructure re-tooling). Policy makers should make every effort to end food distribution's dependence on oil.
Mundane politics, such as a tax holiday, can momentarily influence the price of fuel and shortages. Known risks can affect 40% of the world’s oil supply overnight. Following is an image taken from Iranian TV of a missile launch the week of July 7, 2008. Oil prices jumped $10 within two days of releasing these missile photos.
Available Exports
Oil is less available for purchase, World Oil Exports [WOE], peaked in 2005:
- Exports in 2005 peaked at 46.342 mbpd (million barrels per day).
- Exports in 2006 were 45.838 mbpd, down 1.10%, 504 mbpd or 184 million barrels below 2005.
- Exports in 2007 were 44.832 mbpd, down 2.24%, 1,509.7 mbpd or 551 million barrels below 2005.
- Exports in 2008 are down another million barrels per day below 2007, or about 4.5% below 2005.
- The rate of decline in available oil exports is changing rapidly. By 2011 world exports are likely to be a third of today’s. The data on World Oil Exports is not directly reported but is available in EIA data. Watching this number is the best indicator for predicting shortages and gas lines. The scale of such shortages is uncertain.
Click to enlarge
The Export Land Model [ELM] explains the rapid decline in exports. Oil producing countries are building their internal economies, with attendant increasing domestic demand for oil. Increasing domestic demand and depleting oil fields combine to sharply decrease exports.
Indonesia is a good example of the Export Land Model. Shown in the following graph, Indonesia consumption climbed (black line) and exports declined (green area) much faster than the oil fields deplete. Red shows Indonesia changed from being an oil exporter to an importer of oil in 2004.
Unknown Unknowns
New oil discoveries take 3-10 years to develop and then face depletion. Electrical and hybrid vehicle fleet replacement takes 15-25 years. Personal Rapid Transit takes 5-15 years to build. The exploitation of every known energy source is needed to permit a couple more years breathing room. Hopefully renewable energy sources will come on line fast enough to displace fossil fuel resources.
It would be advantageous to start on initiatives immediately; Advance Renewable Tariffs and Personal Rapid Transit. Examples: Germany is leading with Advance Renewable Tariffs and Abu Dhabi, Heathrow and Morgantown with Personal Rapid Transit.
Gas Prices during Outages
Gas stations and refineries are not making a fair profit with the current markups. Excess capacity at refineries is depressing gasoline margins. (Ref: http://www.theoildrum.com/node/4255).
Once shortages develop, excess refining capacity can no longer suppress wholesale and retail gasoline prices. Prices will increase towards historical norms of twice the crude oil costs (see graph below). Retail gas prices are currently about 125% of crude costs ($1.25 for each $1 of crude oil cost). At a minimum, a healthy distribution industry needs gas prices to be about 160% of crude cost. Current prices of about $4.12 per gallon should be $5.27 to provide sustainable margin. Oil prices will also jump if there are outages. It is conjecture, but in a shortage, gasoline prices this fall can be in the $6 to $8 a gallon range. If shortages are caused by political actions, there is no upper limit on price.
Low refining and retail gas margins benefit large integrated oil companies. Profits from record crude prices protect the large integrated oil companies while low gasoline margins drives independent refiners and retailers towards bankruptcy. It has the effects of a gas war that is destabilizing and amplifying supply chain and depleting inventory risks.
Click to enlarge
Food Distribution
EIA TWIP reports notes we have 19 days supply of crude oil on-hand. Note this is 4 days less than 2007 (blue line). The trend is down, and plunging.
From a logistician’s point of view, a good crisis plan should prioritize fuel to keep food distribution and water flowing. Without prepared contingencies, famine is possible in a significant shortage, maybe likely.
Where to Invest
I would like discuss this topic of where to invest. Please post your thoughts.
Base your thoughts upon the assumption that fuel will be prioritized to keep the food distribution system functional. Note that there is no evidence that such a plan currently exists. When gas lines form here are sectors that might do best (or maybe, least worse):
In general, invest in companies:
- with published plausible operations plans for how they will operate with fuel shortages.
- that produce product verses services.
- that preempt the need for oil; whose products support Advanced Renewable Tariffs and deployment of Personal Rapid Transit.
Specific sectors for investment are:
- Self-reliance. Plant a garden and store 300 pounds of rice, beans and wheat. This is currently a cheap investment. When transport falters, food will be an uncertainty. If it is not needed, in a year give it to a food shelf bank.
- Alcohol and tobacco companies. People will seek an escape.
- Guns and ammunition companies. Peak Oil will destroy world peace and be hell on local peace.
- Railroads can move goods very efficiently. Food distribution should depend on railroads.
- Personal Rapid Transit companies and their suppliers (disclosure, this author is the founder of JPods). This industry is building urban ultra-light rail networks that provide the efficiency of rail transportation in cities.
- John Deere (DE), other farm implements, seed and gardening companies. Victory gardens will be universal.
- Companies whose products deal with food preservation.
- Specific trucking companies that specialize in moving foodstuffs.
- Food companies and grocery store chains with published plans for how they will deal with energy availability.
- Real estate around railheads.
- Scooter and bicycle companies.
- Metal recyclers and natural resource companies. There will be a crash program to build Personal Rapid Transit (ultra-light rail, Ref: Article on investing in PRT).
- Windmills, solar, hydro, natural gas, coal and nuke companies.
- Electrical utilities that are hydro, nuke and/or with reliable access to coal.
- Refineries that have domestic oil suppliers and can operate economically with diminished feed stocks.
Summary
Gas lines are coming this fall based on inventory depletion. Watch World Oil Exports [WOE] and EIA’s TWIP report as leading indicators of when shortages will develop. Debt, politics, weather and unknowns are wildcards, able to create instant and very large-scale outages.
On a personal level, self-reliance is a great investment. Plant a garden. Invest in an emergency food shelter. Invest in your local community.
Permanent solutions must start immediately. A leadership call to self-reliance and Victory Gardens can have an immediate effect. Aggressively exploring alternatives will give more time to create and implement solutions. Most solutions are local. Like planting a garden, local action can create an economic lifeboat for each economic community.
We can re-tool transportation to operate with about 15% of current oil consumption. We will have to work hard for the next 15 years to accomplish this.
Disclosure: None
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This article has 79 comments:
There is no mention of the fact that Gasoline inventories are high side. This would explain that the buffer is in the Gasoline and not in oil.
There is no shortage of Oil. If there was, then OPEC would increase production. As of now, they have indicated several times that an increase is not necessary.
You also do not mention the fact that if you are correct about the gas shortage based on low oil inventories that SPR could release oil as they did back after Katrina hit. This would change your figures quite a bit.
Higher costs stresses supply chain inventories, increasing the risks of outages.
If demand falls very quickly, exporters like Mexico, will like cut production to protect their current revenues. They are as addicted to their oil income as we are to using oil. Then again, price would go up, further stressing inventory levels.
> jack
Modern versions of are a physical version of the Internet, an automated warehouse for an economic community. People and cargo are routed automatically on ultra-light rails, non-stop from origin to destination. These networks can be privately financed (like the Transcontinental Railroads) and be built out quickly. Energy use is equivalent to 200-400 miles per gallon (similar to freight rail).
These networks will change urban transport from a capital event to a service. The current barrier to deployment is policy. There is no free market in access to rights of way as was put in place for the communications infrastructure when AT&T was de-monopolized in 1984.
Masdar, in Abu Dhabi is being built using PRT as the only internal transport for a city of 50,000. A network is being built at Heathrow. These networks will be more likely than a mass conversion to natural gas.
You are 100% correct. Oil producers are doing this already, that is why inventory is low. That is why the fundamentals of supply and demand are not at work. The high price is out of range from balance causing the stress as you mentioned.
I just pray that we do not have any Hurricanes this year that hit the Gulf. Although, I am sure that oil future investors are hoping for one so they can make money off of a disaster.
This is just another reason I think both an interest rate increase and the SPR should be used now. This would bring the price down and to regulate the market back to a balanced state.
Suggest finding out what the cost of the Morgantown's transit would be today and multipy that by 1,000,000 cities of whatever size.....I'm probably underestimating the number.
Opec cannot increase production for export, they want oil dependance, If they could have, they would have.
Their internal usage is accelerating, 5%+ every year.
Dubai is but one example of their expansion, they currently have $2 Trillion in projects underway and will not halt them because some infidels want more oil.
US Oil inventories are overstated by at least 20%, Oil Containers cannot be drained completely. ( do not remember why)
Meanwhile, we import gasoline as well as all of the other refined products. Gasoline inventories do not mean squat if others outbid us and that is another reason for our Domestic prices. We not only import the oil we refine but must also import refined products as well.
The payback on early networks is 1-3 years. The payback for the entire network is less than 15 years. The cost savings are about 65%.
Oil-based transport is expensive. It is very expensive to move a ton to move a person.
Think in terms of commitment to this endeavor and expect cost overruns throughout the process. Personally, It is too little too late.
What all major cities have is a buried electrical transit system which would require the rebuilding of the power lines and construction of the good old fashioned Trolley cars. Anyone have any ideas on time needed to go back in time?
To date:
Railroads and beer are in the headlines about foreign owners. Both are good investments at this time.
Rails are the cheap way to move things.
Beer is great at drowning the masses sorrows as their country falls apart.
Mobility is a process. Like any process, the more you can make if flow on-demand and the lower you make your parasitic mass (mass not cargo or passengers) the lower the costs. Trolley cars, light-rail and buses move about 3 tons to move a passenger. That is expensive.
Based on riders per day, the elevator is the most successful form of public transportation. Merging distributed computer networks with roller coaster mechanics, we can build networks of "horizontal-elevators" that provide personal, on-demand mobility.
Rail works. Eliminating parasitic mass works. And beer is good.
> jack
Since there is no well rehearsed plan of action at this time, it is very difficult to guess what the political actions will be when facing an inventory crisis.
Here are links to the Senate letter to DOT to find a solution to the 1973 Oil Embargo. Note Morgantown's PRT system is in Morgantown and the Senate Letter is signed by Senator Byrd.
www.jpods.com/JPods/00...
Here is a link to the Congressional Office of Technology Assessment study PB-244854 that PRT will make our cities independent of oil. The report even notes that its finding will not likely be implemented because DOT "neglected near-term ... simpler approaches."
www.jpods.com/JPods/00...
I have exchanged emails with Assistant Secretary Karsner at DOE about the fact that neither Morgantown nor PB-244854 are listed at DOT or DOE web sites. We have failed to remember lessons learn at great expense from the 1973 Oil Embargo.
The state of Texas and the Texas state teachers fund has pumped billions into crude purchaces.
There has been over 360 billion pumped into crude in the last five or six months world wide raising the prices.
It is no longer about the true market mechanics.
It is all about greed!
It's like Nostradamus, keep guessing about everything in frequency and eventually it will happen...
When an earthquake will trigger is difficult to forecast. That the momentum of moving tectonic plates will cause earthquakes is guaranteed.
Matt's warnings are that we need to prepare for the momentum of oil depletion. When it will trigger shortages is not precisely guessable. The inventory trends are a good indicator. Gas prices are good indicators.
With preparation, an earthquake is a scary event. Without preparation, water, power and everything needed to sustain a city collapse. The 97% dependence on oil for food distribution is not a problem so long as oil does not deplete or become expensive. We are no longer guess at when oil will hit $100 a barrel.
As T. Boone Pickens pointed out, it is insane for the US to be importing 70%. If do not drill now, in 5 years we will be up to 80-85% dependent on imports....and $8-10/gal gas.
Obama and the Democrats and Environmentalists oposes nuclear power because accoding to them we do not know how to handle the waste. OK. So do they propose a massive research to eliminate the waste? No. They consider nuclear waste an unsolvable problem and therefore will do nothing. They do not even bother to see why France supplies 80% of its needs from nuclear and is now building another nuclear power plant to raise it even higher.
Americans, wakeup! The Democrats and Environmentalist are leading the country down the path of economic collapse. We have to throw the bums out in November.
Yes, we capture only 30% of the actual energy: 70% goes up the stacks, into the cooling water, or out the tailpipe as WASTE HEAT (ignoring co-generation plants for the moment which still lose 30% as waste heat).
Whereas, any electricity produced from wind, solar, tidal, geothermal, etc., is PURE GAIN (short of tranmission losses which are small); regardless of the "poor" 10-20-30% conversion efficiencies.
The solutions: convert the diesel-electic railroad trains to pure electric (use wind and solar electricity): save all that rail diesel (of which only 30% becomes useful anyhow. You see, it requries only 30% of the solar/wind KWH to power the pure-electric trains, whereas it takes 3x as much diesel energy to provide the same KWH. Do you see it yet?? Switzerland does!!! Pure electric trains.
Same for burning coal to make electricity. It takes 3x as much coal energy to produce electrical KWH made from solar and wind, etc. DUH!!! Germany sees it!! Fourty percent solar.
Now, when Boone wants to replace NG generated electricty with wind/solar and then burn the NG in NG fueled cars, he is still losing 70% of the NG energy. It would take 1/3 as many solar/wind KWH to drive pure electric vehicles as what's in the NG. DUH, agian.
Brazil get's it: they still burn their energy but 50% of their vehicles are biofuel.
When you examine the 70% of all crude oil consumed going to transportation energy (the other 30% is feedstock, products, etc., which could be produced from bio sources in most cases), if we were to do all that transporting of people and goods around the U.S. with electrified rails, electric vehicles, rubber and rail city trolleys, steel-wheeled-rail-fer... along the interstate right-of-ways, etc., we would need only 1/3 the energy now used if it were done with electricity made from solar/wind/etc. It would be like only needing 30 million barrels of crude instead of 85 million barrels of crude a day. Make all that electricity from coal and nat. gas and you still need the 85 million barrrels of crude equivalent. DUH!!
Get it yet?
That's why we need a REAL energy policy and REAL LEADERSHIP.
And a MANHATTAN PROJECT OR MOON SHOT PROGRAM TO MAKE IT HAPPEN.
Boone is right about replacing 22% of the elctricity from natural gas with wind power.
All that natural gas he does not use should stay in the ground (same with all the coal and oil), and those natural gas cars he wants to deveop should be electrics powered by more wind and solar, etc., farms.
We already handle 12 Quads of electrical power on the existing grids in the US. If we were to go to electrified rails and electrified inter- and intra-state higways, biways, and beltways (meaning congested cities), we would only need another 5 Quads of infrastructure. Go figure. And we know how to find, make and install those resources.
What needs to be changed are the minds of people, Government, politicians, capitalists, lobbiests, all the DRILL, DRILL, DRILL GUYS FROM KUDLOW TO THE OIL AND GAS GUYS TO THE PRESIDENT, and of course, just a little-further-correct... LIKE BOONE PICKENS.
Gettin' it yet???
Whereas, the sun and wind keep on going forever, like the energizer bunny....... no, even better than that.
What do you guys think of processing solar PV silicon using a solar PV farm as it's power source? Nearly a perpetual motion machine isn't it....... Wonder if we can find the sand???? How about the sun???? That's even a better question based on where some heads are.
While I'm mad as hell about this situation (and a couple of others), I really only have myself to blame. I thought I could sit back, go do my "thing" and everyone else would solve our problems. Yes, the lights were on but no one was home!
I live in Olympia, Washington and what I'm seeing is probably happening all across the country. My wife and I have become big on "take out" because many of the local restaurants were so busy that you had to wait to get a table. Twelve months (or even less) ago I'd wait 20 minutes and then go pick up my order. When I got to the restaurant (any one of my favorites) it was full. Today when I place an order I leave immediately, the food is waiting for me when I arrive, and the restaurant is nearly empty.
While I have no way to prove this comment, I would not be surprised if some restaurants are giving employees payroll checks that bounce! I wonder how many of these employees are single parents? This sucks big time and it is no way to run a country!
I am going to start an email campaign to everyone in my address book repeating what I've said here and stating that in my opinion the congressional delegation from Washington State has been asleep at the switch when it comes to the big issues. I'm also adding my congressional delegation to my email list.
Igorisky is correct. America needs to wake and I'm done sitting on my thumb. I just don't know enough about technology to guage success.
As for the transition times, I actually think it is too late to transition to any kind of "other" energy without feeling some pain for many people here in the US.
Like most organism on earth, we can live within a solar budget. I invented JPods to accomplish this in urban transportation. Instead of moving a ton to move a person, strive to move only the person. The result is 400 JPods suspended from overhead rails that get efficiencies similar to rail (CSX 423 miles per gallon commercial, www.youtube.com/watch?...)
JPods operate at about 200 watt-hours per mile (200 mpg) for people and 100 watt-hours per mile for freight (400 mpg). Solar collectors 2 meters wide mounted over the rails gather 2.5 million watt-hours per mile of rail per typical day. That is enough to power 12,000 vehicle miles per mile of rail.
To implement system like this we do not need a Manhattan Project. We need Performance Governing (www.theoildrum.com/nod...) like the development of the Internet. Set standards and allow inventors to invent to exceed standards. Change the role of government from managing HOW to build infrastructure to leadership in WHAT is needed.
Moving a ton to move a person is less than 4% efficient. Striving to move only the person can achieve 70% efficiency. A 17 times improvement in efficiency can counter the 6 fold price increase in oil in the last several years. But it will take time.
If you are interested in helping build networks in your economic community contact me. There is a profit in saving people time and money.
IMPORT ALL WE CAN AND LEAVE OURS IN THE GROUND (AND BE QUIET ABOUT IT!).
It's been and is a good policy (for our future if none other - even if we never use it - which we will with no alternatives).
What we didn't address ENOUGH as part an energy policy was the alternative to importing all that crude, digging all that coal, and drilling all that oil, nat gas, etc.,: WAS a way to keep from JUST burning it; not only THE SOURCE of the energy, but how we USED It once we got it.
Gasoline economy rules were topical dressing if not a farce as it still required burning the energy. Same for coal and power generation.
I could go on and on... it's so disgusting. GREEDY WIMPS IN WASHINGTON; GREEDY POWER IN THE OIL AND ASSOCIATED INDUSTRIES.
T. Boone's is right w.r.t wind power replacing Nat Gas POWER GENERATION. But he's still a greedy oilman wanting to burn natural gas in TRANSPORTATION. He should apply his wind power plan thnking to TRANSPORTATION and not use natural gas for that.
That would be right thinking. (and by the way, I'm not a liberal greenie! And I'm also not against big oil per se; they have to be part of the solution). BUT STOP TRYING TO FOOL US.
There are many things that could be done like JPODS. The first is changing the users mind (assuming your solution existed) which in your case still requires yielding much personal freedom.
I prefer attacking the things that exist that do not impact personal freedom: like electrifying the rails AND building electrifried inter/intrastate steel-wheeled ferries first for cargo and vehicles with people or just people in the non-cummute mode unless it's replacing across-state air traffic, etc.; then centralized problem solving with the trolleys, etc. Hybrid vehicles for local selfish travel. Commuters will pool and van and bus it when gas is too expensive or not available,first, as a way of yielding some selfish freedom. That's the quickest and cheapest implementation possible for people movement.
As it turned out, with the Manhattan Project, from nothing we designed and built an operating nuclear production plant in the desert using 1940's technology in 18 MONTHS;
18 MONTHS!!!!!
that's why we need a Manhattan Project mentality, if not actual GOVERNMENT LEADERSHIP AND RESOURCES to make it happen.
Time is of the essence (even if you are not aware of it!). And drill, drill, drill ain't the solution. Many want to make it appear to be ........ but it's more slick vision.
Like destroying the chair you're sitting in..........assuming of course that you want to remain sitting...... going-horizontal is guaranteed the way we're going!!!!
Light-rail and passenger rail are as inefficient as freight rail is efficient. On average they move 3 tons to move a person. Every stop-start requires applying power to that 3 tons of parasitic mass to rebuild kinetic energy.
Building PRT is important because they provide the efficiency of rail with very low parasitic mass and start-stops.
Parasitic Energy Consumption (PEC) is a good indicator of relative power waste.
It is a ratio of the kinetic energy of the moving mass divided by the kinetic energy of the mass of cargo and passengers times the number of start-stops.
The constants and velocity squared cancel and you "Beam me up Scotty" would be perfect use of energy; move only what you want to move with one start-stop. Passenger trains and cars have a PEC of about 200-400. JPods and other PRT's have a PEC of about 3-8.
As for metal recyclers. I think they will be premier investments for the next 2 decades.
Besides, we should be building more electrified rails alongside the existing tracks and right-of-ways-ways to provide two-way traffic and then express v/s local trains.
All this is addition to electrifying the interstate right-of-ways for express (intra and inter) hauling of cargo, etc., and local for travel between major cities; call them FERRIES, for cargo, trucks, cars, and people; just like on water, which we let run on diesel because they are so efficient and cannot be connected to an electrical power line, but they should use biodiesl..
Despite the severe economic malaise that would likely occur, I would personally be elated by one aspect of this horrific scenario: IT WOULD RID US OF THE DEMOCRATS AND THE GREENS IN A SINGLE STROKE!
America has a problem that is not, at bottom, an energy problem.
America is in a chaotic state of denial, and lacks any concensus, any focussing of the political will of this country to do what is necessary to survive. Our present course is suicidal.
Czarist Russia in February 1917 had an implosion, not a Revolution. The government could not function, and the bread riots followed the pattern of the bread riots of the French Revolution over 100 years earlier. The Czar left the scene.
October, 1917, was not a Revolution, as advertised, but a short-lived coup d'etat by the Bolsheviks. The actual Revolution started a bit later when ordinary people realized their country had been hijacked. The Bolsheviks re-named themselves "Communists" in a PR move, in case you forgot.
When the bread riots and the gasoline riots start in America, this will signal the beginning of the end. It will be war. As a Russian military instructor taught, "War is War...War is kill or be killed."
Want to survive? Buy into companies outside the U.S.A. Brazil and Canada come to mind.
Does that mean Thais are smarter than Americans ?
From the gist of this story i suspect that suppliers to the railroads might be a good investment , especially rail car makers .
memory recalled the doom and gloom of the year 2000 bug and what
would happen after Sept. 11 and how the Iraqi war would envelop the world.
Well, none of that happened and I seriously don't think the worst
that has been portrayed in this article will happen either.
Yes, there will be extreme hardships and those that make less for
a living or lose their jobs will suffer the most. But all in all everything
will get better.
As someone once told me 20+ years ago, a little inflation is ok. It's a
cycle. People who lived through the 70's and other crisis like that will
tell you that at the time it seemed like it was the end of the world
too. Yet here we still are.
As far as investing in what the author says? Well, I don't think at
this point I would trust anyones investment advice. I think some of
the selections make sense, others look like the sky is falling so invest
before society collapses. Which if it does then none of those
investments will be any good.
Everyone that reads these posts/articles should give the electrified rail report a thorogh read; starting here, as I've been helped to learn.
Of course, what we have today and not enough of in 1973 is the potential for wind and solar. If Boone wants to replace natural gas production of 22% of present electrical generation using wind power, electrifying the rails with the first 2-4% seems smart to save 2-4 million barrels/day of crude used to move goods and people. And if that electrified rail service is good enough and fast enough, it will replace even more oil consumption of goods and people.
And if that's so, the desire to reduce the rest of our crude consumption in transportation should be even more invigorating.
Without natural gas cars (unless they are outfitted with phenomenal solid state heat recovery devices converting directly into electricity to make them very efficient "hybrids") for long range (50-600 miles) travel; and then pure plug-in electrics or solar-electrics for <50 mile commuters, also powered by solar and wind generated electricity. NO HYDROCARBON WASTE PERMITTED IN TRANSPORTATION! If we had that we would have already eliminated 70% of our hydrocarbon production from cars, trucks, etc., (transportation caused smog, etc., etc.,).
What about the last 2 ?
We are really on the right track now aren't we ?
What happened to that 90 day plan 2 YEARS ago that your saviours Pelosi & Reid were going to implement.
And before you answer too quickly take a good look at what Republican "control" meant back then and you will know the answer.
I guess you're a little young to remember the last time we had gas lines. And a little naive today to comprehend the "command and control" redesign of our economy now taking place in Washnigton. But you'll learn to understand it better as time goes on.
I am a conservative. I believe we should pay for what we use and subsidize very little. I love free markets; far from perfect, they allow more ingenuity and kill more stupidity than any other economic form. The risk in free markets is failure to account for long term costs. The current climate risks, the I-35W Bridge Collapse, escalating oil prices, 54 as the average age of farmers, and other facts indicate we have borrowed from our children.
There is plenty of responsibility for policies and use for us all to stop blaming and start pulling together to resolve the crisis. Peak Oil and Global Warming are civilization killers we can defeat by implementing free markets so inventors can profit by preempting waste and accrue resources for all costs.
Please consider reading Performance Governing (www.theoildrum.com/nod...) and Beating 100 mpg (seekingalpha.com/artic...) and how we can re-tool transportation by preempting waste (seekingalpha.com/artic...)
static.seekingalpha.co...
static.seekingalpha.co...
A free market in power generation and transportation infrastructure, where we account for all long term costs instead of dumping the on the future, and you will see radical innovation. Government control of power generation infrastructure is 69% inefficient. Government control of transportation infrastructure is 80% inefficient. Planned economies are based on plans that the planners hate to change; with the mobilization for World War I, the technologies of the day were locked into the plan (Bell, Ford, the Wright Brothers, and Edison). The efficiencies of the day were locked in place until communications was de-monopolized in 1984.
Germany de-monopolized power generation with Feed-in Tariff and has created 250,000 renewable energy jobs and captured much of the expanding wind and solar industry. Exports in 2007 of about $12 billion.
Inventors cannot navigate the complexity of government control. Apple, Google, YouTube and many Internet and micro computer companies would not have grown to commercial scale in a regulated communications infrastructure.
A centralized effort, "give it to the military" is a bad idea. Give a free market and allow military veterans is chance to preempt inefficiencies and convert costs to profits is a great idea. Nearly everyone in JPods' effort is a veteran. I am a West Point graduate and 8 year Infantry veteran.
If we rationed gas on amount, we would have lines now. Economically weaker people would still be able to compete for availability.
Currently we are rationing gas based on price. Lines are prevented because those that cannot afford gas are not waiting at the station for the price to drop. As more and more people cannot afford to get to work, while others drive gas guzzlers, the frustration will grow and express itself in protests and/or riots.
What is urgently needed is a comprehensive system of bike tracks, preferably separated from roads. Putting it together would also mop up the presently underemployed builders. And give the civil servants the job of (quickly!) sorting out the rights of way.
(By the way, gas in Europe is already 8$ a gallon and consumption has hardly budged....)
With JPods, we plan to build bike lanes under nearly every rail so cities become bikeable and walkable.
We still need a way to consistently move people and cargo longer distances and in all weather. We still need a way for people who cannot ride a bike to have mobility.
I also believe there will be a market for ultra-light bike-cars. They will need safety waivers and accidents with them will not fair any better than motor cycle accidents.
Accounting for all costs, wind and solar would have been cost effective since our wakeup call in 1973. Free markets would have allowed the orderly transition from fossil to renewable power. But we hit the snooze button. Centrally planned economies in power generation and transportation subsidized oil and distorted market mechanisms.
There was no conspiracy, just bureaucrats trying to implement their plan with as much consistency as possible. Innovations are an inconsistency. We got better at building HOW we built, but we did not change WHAT to build.
Check out who Matt Simmons is and why it is in his direct benefit to make these prognostications and to incessantly beat the "peak oil" drum which is complete nonsense. This is a man that stands to benefit in the billions with his day job saying this stuff. The conflict is so outrageous I'm amazed so many fall under his spell and don't call him on the massive financial conflict and his obfuscated position in it all. Check for yourself.
Thanks for the kind comment. JPods do change repetitive travel from a capital requirement (buy car, parking space, gas) to a lower cost service (horizontal-elevator, touch, go, abandon). I agree that they will co-exist with cars, bikes and other modes of transport.
JPods are powered by electricity. Any type of electricity will work but in general we will install collectors of natural power supplies (solar, wind, etc...). It adds about $1.5 million per mile to the cost. Total cost is about $4-12 million a mile. Typical payback on early networks is 1-4 years.
JPods are a double paradigm shift
- from individual devices to networks
- with system integrate transportation and power generation.
This makes the systems very durable in turbulent times. The will also be very profitable. Operating costs of a car are at least 56 cents per vehicle mile (AAA 2004). Operating JPods is 4 cents. Our definition of profit is the difference between the value customers willing pay for and the cost to compete. JPods provide the service of a chauffeured car at a radically reduced cost to compete.
This profitability, increased value and lower costs, will help speed deployment.
Here is an article about investing in the PRT industry. Anyone interested in investing in JPods is welcome to contact me. My contact information is at JPods.com. seekingalpha.com/artic...
Morgantown was running since 1975. Here is a link: www.youtube.com/watch?...
All this of course is needed and good but don't fool yourself into thinking we won't be switching one mega life controling corporation for another. People now can't keep up with there electric bills. As far as the wind turbines here in NYS you can tell the corporations divided up the state beforehand. There is no competition by town between companies. One company approaches a town or two in a group and thats it. The next group of towns over has a totally different wind company. So you have little monopolies all over the place. Like I said the town may get some perks, the people who have the towers on their land of course do, but it does nothing to personally give me power, it all goes directly into the BIG grid.
So I think smaller is better. Like the urban turbines that look like DNA that lay sideways on top of a building for example. Wind power is nothing new, they used to dot the farms in the old days for pumping water or grinding grain, making paper so why not small on an individual basis (some already doing it I know.) or by town with the residents getting the direct benefit? My husband is already tinkering with the water to fuel gizmo (hes a mechanic) and figuring how to do it on a bigger scale rather then the quart of water under the hood. Necessity is the mother of invention they say.
In one of the pictures on your site(bottom left), there is a canopy covered with what looks like solar panels. Have you done any calculations to see if it could be self powered during the day by solar alone? I would imagine with hundreds and hundreds of miles of solar panels it could be self powered and even add to the power grid at times.
As the networks grow, the amount of excess power (rails with fewer than 12,000 trips per day) will grow. Instead of large solar arrays in remote deserts, very large solar arrays in cities will make local grids far more durable. During peak demand, high air conditioning periods, the amount of excess power climbs.
The need for collectors and short payback (1-4 years) will allow a lot of innovation in solar energy collection and storage. Example, I have seen a CO2 harvester that wants our excess power for their chemical process for recombining water and CO2 to natural gas and oxygen. That natural gas can then run electrical generators at night.
There is considerable synergy in this system approach to transport and power generation. It is a transport version of a solar calculator.
and source, netoilexports.blogspot.../
You will see that since mid-2004 we plateaued. It is very difficult to manipulate this. If it could be manipulated, then we should be even more desperate to end food distribution's dependence on oil. If you want security, plant a garden, organize your neighborhood and help re-tool transportation.
Even as Oil hit $147 in early July you could go into any gas station and fill up at will. This crisi was just a spectulative bubble. It was never about supply/demand imbalance.