Gas Lines Coming This Fall

Gas lines are not hard to find.  This fall, you will likely see them at your local gas station:

• There were spot shortages during the 2007 harvest in North and South Dakota.
• A home heating oil crisis will occur when cold weather forces empty tanks to be filled.
• Increasing mortgage foreclosures illustrate that people are choosing between their cost of commuting to work and house payment.
• Fuel and food riots occur where people that cannot borrow or buy oil (examples):
  • June 13, 2008, 2 people killed in fuel riots in Spain and Portugal.
  • July 12, 2008, 13 people killed in fuel riots in Yemen.

The purpose of this essay is to highlight petroleum inventory issues likely to cause shortages this fall.  Several events can create instant, grave shortages.  Following is an incomplete list of known risks.  There are still more unknown risks of unknown magnitude.  As explained below, gas lines will be accompanied by a price jump of about $1.50 per gallon, even if crude oil does not increase in price.

Inventories

Inventories provide the cushion to buffer fuel deliveries snags.  So long as the inventories are sufficient, the snags that could halt delivery stay small, and there will be no gas lines. 

Inventories are depleting.  In the graph from EIA TWIP report from July 9, 2008, the blue background wave is the historic range of inventories.  The orange line and dots are weekly reports.  Summer inventories normally trend down.  This year the rate of depletion is more severe than usual.  Actual inventories can soon set historic lows.  As inventory dips below safety margins, spot shortages will occur as experienced last fall in the Dakotas.

 

Oil’s Long and Fragile Supply Chain

Oil has a long and fragile supply chain.  Inventory at each stage is required to provide a buffer against production variations.  As inventories shrink, the likelihood of shortages increase.  There were spot diesel shortages during the 2007 harvest in North and South Dakota.  There are spot shortages in weaker economies in the world.  Spot shortages are a the leading indicator of wider supply disruptions.

 

Debt

The falling value of the dollar is an indicator of the risk due to borrowing to buy a consumable. The scale of uncertainty increases with debt and dependence.

We are borrowing from our children to buy oil; $302 billion in 2006, $331 billion in 2007 and about $700 billion in 2008.  Borrowing to buy a consumable is eroding the capital base. Poorly capitalized debt is a trap, as was recently illustrated by the evaporation of Bear Stearns (BSC) and plummeting share value of Freddie Mac (FRE) and Fannie Mae (FNM), and IndyMac's (IMB) collapse. When there is a mortgage crisis at 4.8% unemployment, what will happen when vast numbers of people lose their jobs in energy outages?

Third world countries that cannot borrow to buy oil are facing gas lines and riots now.  It is difficult to conceive of how the US can continue to borrow and avoid the same consequences.  When that crisis arrives and if caused by debt, it is likely to happen very quickly and could cut supplies by 70%.

Weather

Uncertainty of supply from the Gulf of Mexico is especially high at this time.  Current imports from the region are at historic lows as noted in the downward blue line in the following EIA graph:

 

Imports from Mexico and Venezuela are especially important because shipping time from their oil fields is less than a week.  To get equivalent imports for Saudi Arabia takes more than 20 days and uses 4 to 8 times as many ships. 

The following graph indicates what will happen to oil imports if a major hurricane hits any of the significant oil regions between Venezuela and Louisiana.  A drop of 1 million barrels per day from current depleted inventories will shock the US supply chain.

We have allowed our entire economy to be at risk from a single weather event. 

Click to enlarge

 

Politics

If you think politicians will not start a war because it would be stupid or unnecessary, then I have a bridge I would like to sell you.  Sequences of even small events can cascade out of control.  In the world today there are plenty of small and large risks that indicate we are not far from an avalanche.  The invasion of Iraq might yet cause a cascade.  Pulling out of Iraq may also create a cascade.  Uncertainty rules our time and will become more unstable as consequences of Peak Oil reveal themselves.

Politics can only cause oil prices to jump.  Lowering oil prices will result only from years of work to make most transportation independent of oil.  Policy makers can facilitate this transition with Advanced Renewable Tariffs (free market power generation) and Performance Governing (setting performance standards for infrastructure re-tooling).  Policy makers should make every effort to end food distribution's dependence on oil.

Mundane politics, such as a tax holiday, can momentarily influence the price of fuel and shortages.  Known risks can affect 40% of the world’s oil supply overnight. Following is an image taken from Iranian TV of a missile launch the week of July 7, 2008.  Oil prices jumped $10 within two days of releasing these missile photos.

 

Available Exports

Oil is less available for purchase, World Oil Exports [WOE], peaked in 2005:

• Exports in 2005 peaked at 46.342 mbpd (million barrels per day).
• Exports in 2006 were 45.838 mbpd, down 1.10%, 504 mbpd or 184 million barrels below 2005.
• Exports in 2007 were 44.832 mbpd, down 2.24%, 1,509.7 mbpd or 551 million barrels below 2005.
• Exports in 2008 are down another million barrels per day below 2007, or about 4.5% below 2005.
• The rate of decline in available oil exports is changing rapidly.  By 2011 world exports are likely to be a third of today’s.  The data on World Oil Exports is not directly reported but is available in EIA data.  Watching this number is the best indicator for predicting shortages and gas lines.  The scale of such shortages is uncertain.

Click to enlarge

 

The Export Land Model [ELM] explains the rapid decline in exports.  Oil producing countries are building their internal economies, with attendant increasing domestic demand for oil.  Increasing domestic demand and depleting oil fields combine to sharply decrease exports. 

Indonesia is a good example of the Export Land Model.  Shown in the following graph, Indonesia consumption climbed (black line) and exports declined (green area) much faster than the oil fields deplete.  Red shows Indonesia changed from being an oil  exporter to an importer of oil in 2004.

 

Unknown Unknowns

New oil discoveries take 3-10 years to develop and then face depletion.  Electrical and hybrid vehicle fleet replacement takes 15-25 years.  Personal Rapid Transit takes 5-15 years to build.  The exploitation of every known energy source is needed to permit a couple more years breathing room.  Hopefully renewable energy sources will come on line fast enough to displace fossil fuel resources.

It would be advantageous to start on initiatives immediately; Advance Renewable Tariffs and Personal Rapid Transit.  Examples: Germany is leading with Advance Renewable Tariffs and Abu Dhabi, Heathrow and Morgantown with Personal Rapid Transit.

Gas Prices during Outages

Gas stations and refineries are not making a fair profit with the current markups.  Excess capacity at refineries is depressing gasoline margins. (Ref: http://www.theoildrum.com/node/4255).

Once shortages develop, excess refining capacity can no longer suppress wholesale and retail gasoline prices.  Prices will increase towards historical norms of twice the crude oil costs (see graph below).  Retail gas prices are currently about 125% of crude costs ($1.25 for each $1 of crude oil cost).  At a minimum, a healthy distribution industry needs gas prices to be about 160% of crude cost.  Current prices of about $4.12 per gallon should be $5.27 to provide sustainable margin.  Oil prices will also jump if there are outages.  It is conjecture, but in a shortage, gasoline prices this fall can be in the $6 to $8 a gallon range.  If shortages are caused by political actions, there is no upper limit on price.

Low refining and retail gas margins benefit large integrated oil companies. Profits from record crude prices protect the large integrated oil companies while low gasoline margins drives independent refiners and retailers towards bankruptcy. It has the effects of a gas war that is destabilizing and amplifying supply chain and depleting inventory risks.

Click to enlarge

 

Food Distribution

EIA TWIP reports notes we have 19 days supply of crude oil on-hand.  Note this is 4 days less than 2007 (blue line).  The trend is down, and plunging.

 

From a logistician’s point of view, a good crisis plan should prioritize fuel to keep food distribution and water flowing.  Without prepared contingencies, famine is possible in a significant shortage, maybe likely.

Where to Invest

I would like discuss this topic of where to invest.  Please post your thoughts.

Base your thoughts upon the assumption that fuel will be prioritized to keep the food distribution system functional.  Note that there is no evidence that such a plan currently exists.  When gas lines form here are sectors that might do best (or maybe, least worse): 

In general, invest in companies:

• with published plausible operations plans for how they will operate with fuel shortages.
• that produce product verses services.
• that preempt the need for oil; whose products support Advanced Renewable Tariffs and deployment of Personal Rapid Transit.

Specific sectors for investment are:

• Self-reliance.  Plant a garden and store 300 pounds of rice, beans and wheat.  This is currently a cheap investment.  When transport falters, food will be an uncertainty.  If it is not needed, in a year give it to a food shelf bank.
• Alcohol and tobacco companies.  People will seek an escape.
• Guns and ammunition companies.  Peak Oil will destroy world peace and be hell on local peace.
• Railroads can move goods very efficiently.  Food distribution should depend on railroads.
• Personal Rapid Transit companies and their suppliers (disclosure, this author is the founder of JPods).  This industry is building urban ultra-light rail networks that provide the efficiency of rail transportation in cities.
• John Deere (DE), other farm implements, seed and gardening companies.  Victory gardens will be universal.
• Companies whose products deal with food preservation.
• Specific trucking companies that specialize in moving foodstuffs.
• Food companies and grocery store chains with published plans for how they will deal with energy availability.
• Real estate around railheads.
• Scooter and bicycle companies.
• Metal recyclers and natural resource companies.  There will be a crash program to build Personal Rapid Transit (ultra-light rail, Ref:  Article on investing in PRT).
• Windmills, solar, hydro, natural gas, coal and nuke companies.
• Electrical utilities that are hydro, nuke and/or with reliable access to coal.
• Refineries that have domestic oil suppliers and can operate economically with diminished feed stocks.

 

Summary

Gas lines are coming this fall based on inventory depletion.  Watch World Oil Exports [WOE] and EIA’s TWIP report as leading indicators of when shortages will develop.  Debt, politics, weather and unknowns are wildcards, able to create instant and very large-scale outages.

On a personal level, self-reliance is a great investment.  Plant a garden.  Invest in an emergency food shelter.  Invest in your local community.

Permanent solutions must start immediately.  A leadership call to self-reliance and Victory Gardens can have an immediate effect.  Aggressively exploring alternatives will give more time to create and implement solutions.  Most solutions are local.  Like planting a garden, local action can create an economic lifeboat for each economic community.

We can re-tool transportation to operate with about 15% of current oil consumption.  We will have to work hard for the next 15 years to accomplish this.

Disclosure: None

Comments

[The hand]

How would your arguments change if the reason for the fall in oil inventories was caused by an anticipated fall in the price of oil? if the price was going to fall, the oil companies would want to be holding as little oil as possible.

[Alan von Altendorf]

I subscribe to the notion that we are witnessing global hoarding of all commodities including WTI and heavy crude. I doubt very much that we can convert rail and truck transport from diesel to natural gas.

[FeverBuster]

I agree with both comments above. The high price of oil is keeping inventories low. The last thing oil companies would want to do is keep a large amount of inventory and then all of sudden the price falls dramatically.

There is no mention of the fact that Gasoline inventories are high side. This would explain that the buffer is in the Gasoline and not in oil.

There is no shortage of Oil. If there was, then OPEC would increase production. As of now, they have indicated several times that an increase is not necessary.

You also do not mention the fact that if you are correct about the gas shortage based on low oil inventories that SPR could release oil as they did back after Katrina hit. This would change your figures quite a bit.

[Bill James]

High oil prices are caused by declining exports of oil. As oil exports diminish and demand destruction diminishes more slowly, availability will flow to the highest bidder.

Higher costs stresses supply chain inventories, increasing the risks of outages.

If demand falls very quickly, exporters like Mexico, will like cut production to protect their current revenues. They are as addicted to their oil income as we are to using oil. Then again, price would go up, further stressing inventory levels.

[john s. gordon]

coal-fired steam locomotives anyone ?
> jack

[Bill James]

Morgantown's Personal Rapid Transit (PRT) network was built in 1975 in response to the 1973 Oil Embargo. It has delivered 110 million injury-free, oil-free passenger miles.

Modern versions of are a physical version of the Internet, an automated warehouse for an economic community. People and cargo are routed automatically on ultra-light rails, non-stop from origin to destination. These networks can be privately financed (like the Transcontinental Railroads) and be built out quickly. Energy use is equivalent to 200-400 miles per gallon (similar to freight rail).

These networks will change urban transport from a capital event to a service. The current barrier to deployment is policy. There is no free market in access to rights of way as was put in place for the communications infrastructure when AT&T was de-monopolized in 1984.

Masdar, in Abu Dhabi is being built using PRT as the only internal transport for a city of 50,000. A network is being built at Heathrow. These networks will be more likely than a mass conversion to natural gas.

[FeverBuster]

"If demand falls very quickly, exporters like Mexico, will like cut production to protect their current revenues. They are as addicted to their oil income as we are to using oil. Then again, price would go up, further stressing inventory levels."

You are 100% correct. Oil producers are doing this already, that is why inventory is low. That is why the fundamentals of supply and demand are not at work. The high price is out of range from balance causing the stress as you mentioned.

I just pray that we do not have any Hurricanes this year that hit the Gulf. Although, I am sure that oil future investors are hoping for one so they can make money off of a disaster.

This is just another reason I think both an interest rate increase and the SPR should be used now. This would bring the price down and to regulate the market back to a balanced state.

[jimbrownbrandes]

It could be true that much of information about inventories and production cited in this article are true, but there is one glaring error: It is impossible for widespread gas lines to develop unless there are government-imposed price controls or some other equvalent form of rationing. Absent price controls, or their equivalent, spot shortages will quickly be corrected by market action. Go back to the early 1970s and look: you will see that shortages only developed in an era of price controls. Let's hope government has learned from history and will refrain from this type of foolish action.

[Mmarrkk]

Fever: I hope and pray we don't get a hurricaine aimed at the Gulf Coast as well, because I live there and so does my family. HOWEVER, the odds are against us. We have had 2 very mild hurricaine seasons since Katrina/Rita. Probability says there will be at least a few that will "spook" the market.

[paultaut]

Any improvement in Rail transport regardless of fuel used requires Emegency Laws to be enacted. Unlikely in a Congress still in denial. Right Of Way has to be implemented and the products will still have to be shipped the old fashioned way.

Suggest finding out what the cost of the Morgantown's transit would be today and multipy that by 1,000,000 cities of whatever size.....I'm probably underestimating the number.

Opec cannot increase production for export, they want oil dependance, If they could have, they would have.

Their internal usage is accelerating, 5%+ every year.

Dubai is but one example of their expansion, they currently have $2 Trillion in projects underway and will not halt them because some infidels want more oil.

US Oil inventories are overstated by at least 20%, Oil Containers cannot be drained completely. ( do not remember why)

Meanwhile, we import gasoline as well as all of the other refined products. Gasoline inventories do not mean squat if others outbid us and that is another reason for our Domestic prices. We not only import the oil we refine but must also import refined products as well.

[Bill James]

The cost to re-tool urban transportation to ultra-light PRT rails is about $4-12 million a mile (depending on features). To build 1.4 million miles needed to operate within US domestic oil production (15% of current use, counting depletions). That will cost about $11 trillion.

The payback on early networks is 1-3 years. The payback for the entire network is less than 15 years. The cost savings are about 65%.

Oil-based transport is expensive. It is very expensive to move a ton to move a person.

[ironist15]

To comment only on one part of your article, I think that gas lines can only occur as a result of government intervention in the form of price controls; otherwise, market pricing will be orderly. To put it another way, if there is a gas shortage, prices may need to go to $10 per gallon to reduce demand to the point where lines do not occur. Those with the greatest need, and ability to pay, will get the gas they need, and everyone will get the message to conserve.

[paultaut]

Thanks Jim.

Think in terms of commitment to this endeavor and expect cost overruns throughout the process. Personally, It is too little too late.

What all major cities have is a buried electrical transit system which would require the rebuilding of the power lines and construction of the good old fashioned Trolley cars. Anyone have any ideas on time needed to go back in time?

[John Pseudonym]

Buy what foreigners are buying...they're the smart money.

To date:

Railroads and beer are in the headlines about foreign owners. Both are good investments at this time.

Rails are the cheap way to move things.

Beer is great at drowning the masses sorrows as their country falls apart.

[Bill James]

Paul Taut

Mobility is a process. Like any process, the more you can make if flow on-demand and the lower you make your parasitic mass (mass not cargo or passengers) the lower the costs. Trolley cars, light-rail and buses move about 3 tons to move a passenger. That is expensive.

Based on riders per day, the elevator is the most successful form of public transportation. Merging distributed computer networks with roller coaster mechanics, we can build networks of "horizontal-eleva... that provide personal, on-demand mobility.

Rail works. Eliminating parasitic mass works. And beer is good.

[john s. gordon]

actually the MGTN PRT system was built as a USDOT demonstration project because the university has 2 campuses (downtown & up on the hill) - there isn't any parking available & univ. didn't want students using their cars. have u ever been 2 morgantown? it took a few yrs to work the bugs out of the system. only faculty, students & employees of univ. get passcards, civilians can't use the system.
> jack

[Bill James]

Ironist15. There will be allocations when the inventory shock hits. Food production and distribution will get priority. Fuel distribution will get priority. There may be efforts to control food and fuel prices.

Since there is no well rehearsed plan of action at this time, it is very difficult to guess what the political actions will be when facing an inventory crisis.

[Bill James]

Hi Jack.

Here are links to the Senate letter to DOT to find a solution to the 1973 Oil Embargo. Note Morgantown's PRT system is in Morgantown and the Senate Letter is signed by Senator Byrd.
www.jpods.com/JPods/00...

Here is a link to the Congressional Office of Technology Assessment study PB-244854 that PRT will make our cities independent of oil. The report even notes that its finding will not likely be implemented because DOT "neglected near-term ... simpler approaches."
www.jpods.com/JPods/00...

I have exchanged emails with Assistant Secretary Karsner at DOE about the fact that neither Morgantown nor PB-244854 are listed at DOT or DOE web sites. We have failed to remember lessons learn at great expense from the 1973 Oil Embargo.

[pnut54]

The oil companies have the access to crude supplies, but are not purchasing and storing because they are not making enough profit on the finished product. Therefore the decline in inventories.
The state of Texas and the Texas state teachers fund has pumped billions into crude purchaces.
There has been over 360 billion pumped into crude in the last five or six months world wide raising the prices.
It is no longer about the true market mechanics.
It is all about greed!

[cal48koho]

Bill James" comments are very unlike a lot of articles posted on Alpha, data heavy and chock full of insights and even concrete recommendations for survival and even making money in the process. Some of the above comments are poo poohing Bill's warning in the face of some jaw dropping graphs which he provided. Some of our nearby traditional suppliers like Mexico have decreased exports to the US not because they are playing hoarding games but because their oil fields are depleting...FAST. Cantarell, the biggest field has lost 34% of output in ONE YEAR and Mexico fits the export land model posted by Bill of Indonesia almost perfectly and we may see the end of imports from Mexico in 2 to 4 years and this deficit will be made up by whom? No one knows if KSA can increase output of oil the world wants but it appears they cannot. There is plenty of the heavier grades available from the Persian Gulf but the world doesn't want it and lacks capacity to refine it. This will improve in the next few years but we are talking about now and Bill is talking about a problem as early as this fall, and that is if we have no destructive Gulf hurricanes. It is the low inventory figures that are disturbing . I live in one of the richest communities in this country and I have a friend who works at the local airport and he says that the cost of jet fuel is not a topic of conversation to the folks filling up their Jetstreams. They will fill up their birds at $5 gallon just as painlessly when it hits $50 a gallon. Ditto their Bluebird motorhomes and SUVs. But at some price point the grumbling middle and low classes will not tolerate this sort of flagrant inequality and it is likely to go well beyond just a resentful keying on the shiny flanks of these sleek and monstrous dinosaurs. The current rogue's gallery in DC has had no contingency plans for anything which makes Bill's grim scenario even more likely and so you're on your own out there folks. Bill suggests food reserves. Most Mormons already have a years supply. Reluctantly, despite the obvious fire danger I would advise stocking up on at least 6-12 months of energy supplies now for your heating and transportation needs whether that be wood, coal, propane, gasoline, diesel or jet fuel for your Jetstream. GIve your bicycle a thorough tuneup while you are at it and lay in your canning supplies while you can still get them. this is not being panicky. It's being prudent living in a country run by clueless political nitwits. Adding to your positions in USO or USL or OIL seems almost too painfully obvious even to mention.

[User 108851]

very funny!

[alpha24seven]

Isn't this exactly what Matt Simmons said would happen in 2006, 2007 and now 2008?

It's like Nostradamus, keep guessing about everything in frequency and eventually it will happen...

[Bill James]

Hi Alpha23Seven
When an earthquake will trigger is difficult to forecast. That the momentum of moving tectonic plates will cause earthquakes is guaranteed.

Matt's warnings are that we need to prepare for the momentum of oil depletion. When it will trigger shortages is not precisely guessable. The inventory trends are a good indicator. Gas prices are good indicators.

With preparation, an earthquake is a scary event. Without preparation, water, power and everything needed to sustain a city collapse. The 97% dependence on oil for food distribution is not a problem so long as oil does not deplete or become expensive. We are no longer guess at when oil will hit $100 a barrel.

[Igorisky]

Bush and McCain call for allowing the drilling the offshore areas around the US now. Democrats and environmentalist are against it calling it a useless idea because it will not help bring the price of gas down immediately. OK. So what do they suggest we do? Build more solar and wind turbines. This too take time and will not lower the price immediately. Producing electric cars and hybrids take time too. Everything takes time. So why not drill now and hope that oil is found in large quantities and build the pipelines needed. Meanwhile, hope the oil producers do not squeeze the supply, cause a big shortage and gas go up to $8-10/gal, and in turn, cause food and gas riots.

As T. Boone Pickens pointed out, it is insane for the US to be importing 70%. If do not drill now, in 5 years we will be up to 80-85% dependent on imports....and $8-10/gal gas.

Obama and the Democrats and Environmentalists oposes nuclear power because accoding to them we do not know how to handle the waste. OK. So do they propose a massive research to eliminate the waste? No. They consider nuclear waste an unsolvable problem and therefore will do nothing. They do not even bother to see why France supplies 80% of its needs from nuclear and is now building another nuclear power plant to raise it even higher.

Americans, wakeup! The Democrats and Environmentalist are leading the country down the path of economic collapse. We have to throw the bums out in November.

[nakedjaybird]

Sooner or later (shortage lines work; $10/gal gas works) folks will become painfully aware of the fact that 70% of that energy is lost and becomes WASTE HEAT in all the coal, diesel, gasoline, and natural gas we burn (yes, even in the energy of those NG cars Boone wants for transportation use when he replaces NG with wind/solar for 22% of our electrical power generation).

Yes, we capture only 30% of the actual energy: 70% goes up the stacks, into the cooling water, or out the tailpipe as WASTE HEAT (ignoring co-generation plants for the moment which still lose 30% as waste heat).

Whereas, any electricity produced from wind, solar, tidal, geothermal, etc., is PURE GAIN (short of tranmission losses which are small); regardless of the "poor" 10-20-30% conversion efficiencies.

The solutions: convert the diesel-electic railroad trains to pure electric (use wind and solar electricity): save all that rail diesel (of which only 30% becomes useful anyhow. You see, it requries only 30% of the solar/wind KWH to power the pure-electric trains, whereas it takes 3x as much diesel energy to provide the same KWH. Do you see it yet?? Switzerland does!!! Pure electric trains.

Same for burning coal to make electricity. It takes 3x as much coal energy to produce electrical KWH made from solar and wind, etc. DUH!!! Germany sees it!! Fourty percent solar.

Now, when Boone wants to replace NG generated electricty with wind/solar and then burn the NG in NG fueled cars, he is still losing 70% of the NG energy. It would take 1/3 as many solar/wind KWH to drive pure electric vehicles as what's in the NG. DUH, agian.
Brazil get's it: they still burn their energy but 50% of their vehicles are biofuel.

When you examine the 70% of all crude oil consumed going to transportation energy (the other 30% is feedstock, products, etc., which could be produced from bio sources in most cases), if we were to do all that transporting of people and goods around the U.S. with electrified rails, electric vehicles, rubber and rail city trolleys, steel-wheeled-rail-fer... along the interstate right-of-ways, etc., we would need only 1/3 the energy now used if it were done with electricity made from solar/wind/etc. It would be like only needing 30 million barrels of crude instead of 85 million barrels of crude a day. Make all that electricity from coal and nat. gas and you still need the 85 million barrrels of crude equivalent. DUH!!

Get it yet?

That's why we need a REAL energy policy and REAL LEADERSHIP.

And a MANHATTAN PROJECT OR MOON SHOT PROGRAM TO MAKE IT HAPPEN.

Boone is right about replacing 22% of the elctricity from natural gas with wind power.

All that natural gas he does not use should stay in the ground (same with all the coal and oil), and those natural gas cars he wants to deveop should be electrics powered by more wind and solar, etc., farms.

We already handle 12 Quads of electrical power on the existing grids in the US. If we were to go to electrified rails and electrified inter- and intra-state higways, biways, and beltways (meaning congested cities), we would only need another 5 Quads of infrastructure. Go figure. And we know how to find, make and install those resources.

What needs to be changed are the minds of people, Government, politicians, capitalists, lobbiests, all the DRILL, DRILL, DRILL GUYS FROM KUDLOW TO THE OIL AND GAS GUYS TO THE PRESIDENT, and of course, just a little-further-correct... LIKE BOONE PICKENS.

Gettin' it yet???

[nakedjaybird]

PS - and Hydro and Nuclear will remain players.

[nakedjaybird]

Who says we can't implement wind and solar faster than we can drill, drill, drill new stuff (after we find it of course, and then extract it, and of course process it, transport........until we FINALLY BURN IT!!). The REAL DUH!!!!!!

Whereas, the sun and wind keep on going forever, like the energizer bunny....... no, even better than that.

What do you guys think of processing solar PV silicon using a solar PV farm as it's power source? Nearly a perpetual motion machine isn't it....... Wonder if we can find the sand???? How about the sun???? That's even a better question based on where some heads are.

[Dan O'Leary]

Great essay Bill and many equally good comments. If my memory is correct, Jimmy Carter was the last President who attempted to craft a national energy policy and that was when our oil imports were 20%. Now at nearly 70% we still don't have a policy. And both political parties are equally to blame.

While I'm mad as hell about this situation (and a couple of others), I really only have myself to blame. I thought I could sit back, go do my "thing" and everyone else would solve our problems. Yes, the lights were on but no one was home!

I live in Olympia, Washington and what I'm seeing is probably happening all across the country. My wife and I have become big on "take out" because many of the local restaurants were so busy that you had to wait to get a table. Twelve months (or even less) ago I'd wait 20 minutes and then go pick up my order. When I got to the restaurant (any one of my favorites) it was full. Today when I place an order I leave immediately, the food is waiting for me when I arrive, and the restaurant is nearly empty.

While I have no way to prove this comment, I would not be surprised if some restaurants are giving employees payroll checks that bounce! I wonder how many of these employees are single parents? This sucks big time and it is no way to run a country!

I am going to start an email campaign to everyone in my address book repeating what I've said here and stating that in my opinion the congressional delegation from Washington State has been asleep at the switch when it comes to the big issues. I'm also adding my congressional delegation to my email list.

Igorisky is correct. America needs to wake and I'm done sitting on my thumb. I just don't know enough about technology to guage success.

[Russian Bull]

I think this is the worst case scenario. However, I don't believe the best case scenario (everything will stay the same). I think we will see at least half of what Mr. James is presenting here come true in the next few months. While there is plenty of demand destruction occuring in the US, one has to realize that the rest of the world needs diesel and gasoline more than we do. I bet half the posters here aren't aware these is a Diesel fuel shortage in the Middle East.

As for the transition times, I actually think it is too late to transition to any kind of "other" energy without feeling some pain for many people here in the US.

[Bill James]

In reference to a number of posts.

Like most organism on earth, we can live within a solar budget. I invented JPods to accomplish this in urban transportation. Instead of moving a ton to move a person, strive to move only the person. The result is 400 JPods suspended from overhead rails that get efficiencies similar to rail (CSX 423 miles per gallon commercial, www.youtube.com/watch?...)

JPods operate at about 200 watt-hours per mile (200 mpg) for people and 100 watt-hours per mile for freight (400 mpg). Solar collectors 2 meters wide mounted over the rails gather 2.5 million watt-hours per mile of rail per typical day. That is enough to power 12,000 vehicle miles per mile of rail.

To implement system like this we do not need a Manhattan Project. We need Performance Governing (www.theoildrum.com/nod...) like the development of the Internet. Set standards and allow inventors to invent to exceed standards. Change the role of government from managing HOW to build infrastructure to leadership in WHAT is needed.

Moving a ton to move a person is less than 4% efficient. Striving to move only the person can achieve 70% efficiency. A 17 times improvement in efficiency can counter the 6 fold price increase in oil in the last several years. But it will take time.

If you are interested in helping build networks in your economic community contact me. There is a profit in saving people time and money.

[nakedjaybird]

Actually Dan, we have had an energy policy:

IMPORT ALL WE CAN AND LEAVE OURS IN THE GROUND (AND BE QUIET ABOUT IT!).

It's been and is a good policy (for our future if none other - even if we never use it - which we will with no alternatives).

What we didn't address ENOUGH as part an energy policy was the alternative to importing all that crude, digging all that coal, and drilling all that oil, nat gas, etc.,: WAS a way to keep from JUST burning it; not only THE SOURCE of the energy, but how we USED It once we got it.

Gasoline economy rules were topical dressing if not a farce as it still required burning the energy. Same for coal and power generation.

I could go on and on... it's so disgusting. GREEDY WIMPS IN WASHINGTON; GREEDY POWER IN THE OIL AND ASSOCIATED INDUSTRIES.

T. Boone's is right w.r.t wind power replacing Nat Gas POWER GENERATION. But he's still a greedy oilman wanting to burn natural gas in TRANSPORTATION. He should apply his wind power plan thnking to TRANSPORTATION and not use natural gas for that.

That would be right thinking. (and by the way, I'm not a liberal greenie! And I'm also not against big oil per se; they have to be part of the solution). BUT STOP TRYING TO FOOL US.

[nakedjaybird]

The Manhattan Project required LEADERSHIP AND COMMITTMENT from the top and cooperation on down the line! So did the Moon Project.

There are many things that could be done like JPODS. The first is changing the users mind (assuming your solution existed) which in your case still requires yielding much personal freedom.

I prefer attacking the things that exist that do not impact personal freedom: like electrifying the rails AND building electrifried inter/intrastate steel-wheeled ferries first for cargo and vehicles with people or just people in the non-cummute mode unless it's replacing across-state air traffic, etc.; then centralized problem solving with the trolleys, etc. Hybrid vehicles for local selfish travel. Commuters will pool and van and bus it when gas is too expensive or not available,first, as a way of yielding some selfish freedom. That's the quickest and cheapest implementation possible for people movement.

[nakedjaybird]

And, it does take a Manhatan Project or Moon Program, time-is-of-the-essence classification. If we had done the bomb project based on the whim of capitalists we would have lost the war before the bomb would have had a chance of being built.

As it turned out, with the Manhattan Project, from nothing we designed and built an operating nuclear production plant in the desert using 1940's technology in 18 MONTHS;

18 MONTHS!!!!!

that's why we need a Manhattan Project mentality, if not actual GOVERNMENT LEADERSHIP AND RESOURCES to make it happen.

Time is of the essence (even if you are not aware of it!). And drill, drill, drill ain't the solution. Many want to make it appear to be ........ but it's more slick vision.

Like destroying the chair you're sitting in..........assuming of course that you want to remain sitting...... going-horizontal is guaranteed the way we're going!!!!

[cal48koho]

Some good comments. I will have to take some time to try to verify some of the efficiency numbers from nakedjaybird but if he is even close, the way forward seems clear enough if we can just try to get the lard bottoms in gear. Switzerland does have an amazing electrified transportation network. The oil drum website has a current article on electrifying rail by the way. Drilling may be necessary and I would like to see a deal cut to get the bulk of the profit going to electrified transportation. Oil is too valuable to be wasted in vehicles and we will need it for all its other products decades from now and leaving some in the ground for my grandkids seems essential. The misbegotten offspring of gargoyles who scream DRILL know very little about da bidness. We are short on drilling rigs and what we do have in inventory are old and rusty. Finding competent folks to organize and manage is hard. Look at the debacle still ongoing with the thunderhorse rig in the gulf which was to be BP's crown jewel.Hopefully Petrobras wont make the same mistakes in their Tupi field which poses even more severe engineering difficulties but I wouldn't count on it. We can throw up wind turbines pretty fast. Out here in high wide and windy Wyoming we are pushing up turbines as fast as we can pour the pads, and it's high time to start laying track everywhere. We'll need a lot of steel and maybe we can use domestic steel this time. Lets melt down all our useless Suv's for their steel. I'll even donate my old Suburban.

[Bill James]

Freight rail averages 436 ton-miles per gallon of diesel. That is pretty efficient. Electrifying something so efficient does not seem like the best return on investment.

Light-rail and passenger rail are as inefficient as freight rail is efficient. On average they move 3 tons to move a person. Every stop-start requires applying power to that 3 tons of parasitic mass to rebuild kinetic energy.

Building PRT is important because they provide the efficiency of rail with very low parasitic mass and start-stops.

Parasitic Energy Consumption (PEC) is a good indicator of relative power waste.
It is a ratio of the kinetic energy of the moving mass divided by the kinetic energy of the mass of cargo and passengers times the number of start-stops.

The constants and velocity squared cancel and you "Beam me up Scotty" would be perfect use of energy; move only what you want to move with one start-stop. Passenger trains and cars have a PEC of about 200-400. JPods and other PRT's have a PEC of about 3-8.

As for metal recyclers. I think they will be premier investments for the next 2 decades.

[nakedjaybird]

The deisel-electrics are already electric. How much deisel is used to power them is the question you should be asking? Less demand, right?

Besides, we should be building more electrified rails alongside the existing tracks and right-of-ways-ways to provide two-way traffic and then express v/s local trains.

All this is addition to electrifying the interstate right-of-ways for express (intra and inter) hauling of cargo, etc., and local for travel between major cities; call them FERRIES, for cargo, trucks, cars, and people; just like on water, which we let run on diesel because they are so efficient and cannot be connected to an electrical power line, but they should use biodiesl..

[nakedjaybird]

using you scientific logic and numbers we probably should not have passenger ships and maybe airplanes.

[paulk8756]

Presently, supplies and distribution of oil and its refined products aren't all THAT tight, but a war or severe weather related event could well result in the gas lines the author suggests.

Despite the severe economic malaise that would likely occur, I would personally be elated by one aspect of this horrific scenario: IT WOULD RID US OF THE DEMOCRATS AND THE GREENS IN A SINGLE STROKE!

[robc935]

paulk8756, give it a rest. The Republicans had control of the white house AND both houses of congress for 6 of the last 8 years. The result, the country's in the worst shape of my lifetime (I'm 49). It's great for blood suckers like yourself who sit around and scheme of ways to make more money at others people's expense. For the people of America who actually WORK for the money that they earn, the Republican years have been a kick in the nuts.

[Loup-Garou]

America has a problem that is not, at bottom, an energy problem.
America is in a chaotic state of denial, and lacks any concensus, any focussing of the political will of this country to do what is necessary to survive. Our present course is suicidal.

Czarist Russia in February 1917 had an implosion, not a Revolution. The government could not function, and the bread riots followed the pattern of the bread riots of the French Revolution over 100 years earlier. The Czar left the scene.

October, 1917, was not a Revolution, as advertised, but a short-lived coup d'etat by the Bolsheviks. The actual Revolution started a bit later when ordinary people realized their country had been hijacked. The Bolsheviks re-named themselves "Communists" in a PR move, in case you forgot.

When the bread riots and the gasoline riots start in America, this will signal the beginning of the end. It will be war. As a Russian military instructor taught, "War is War...War is kill or be killed."

Wan