Wednesday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets

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The markets are oversold. In an environment like this they can stay that way longer than most expect. It is a bear market but rallies, sometimes breathtaking, happen as well. So, if you’re not short already, you would be taking chances initiating fresh positions here. There will be plenty of pundits trying to get you to bottom pick their offerings. Be very careful in that regard.

I think Senator Bunning acquitted himself well today and Bernanke’s silence was telling. Bush made a horrible presentation today but public speaking has never been his strong suit. I didn’t listen to Paulson & Co.

Have a pleasant day.

Disclaimer: Among other issues the ETF Digest maintains long or short positions in SPY, SDS, MZZ, IWM, TWM, QQQQ, QLD, XLY, SCC, XLI, SIJ, IYR, SRS, GLD, DBP, DBA, DAG, EFA, EFU, EEM, EEV, EWJ, EWV, EWZ, RSX, FXI and FXP.

Comments

[fatcat:]

David,your closing remarks are spot on.I closed out most of my shorts before the 4th holiday and missed a lot,then found it hard to find re-entry spots.Any major rally should provide lots of places to get short,if you think,as I do,that the next few years will be lean..

2008 Jul 16 06:28 AM

[Sidj:]

As time goes on it look more and more like Warren Buffet's prediction that the decline would be deeper and longer than people think will come true.

2008 Jul 16 08:17 AM

[fjd10595:]

"Public speaking has never been Bush strong point". Really. A bit of an understatement, wouldn't you say. He has no ability to explain any point, and it is obvious that the man is a dope and never should have been elected president.

2008 Jul 16 08:17 AM

[User 59050:]

I always appreciate your charts and comments. Thank you for your time.

2008 Jul 16 08:35 AM

[User 59050:]

I always appreciate your charts and comments. Thank you for your time.

2008 Jul 16 08:35 AM

[User 5927:]

Dave - i am surprised you didnt talk about the "da boyz" obvious buy program at the vix breaking 30 yesterday. look at those two charts on a 15 minute interval overlay. i wonder if they will bother with that one again today since it didn't hold. maybe it worked well enough to let them get short again. worked for me...

2008 Jul 16 08:38 AM

[jr7107:]

Top quality as always David, thank you.

2008 Jul 16 09:15 AM

[johnthebear:]

Thanks for quoting the comments made by Senator Bunning. I too am from Kentucky, and he is absolutely correct in his analysis of the FED. We could lose our freedom if we cannot recover from this huge mess in a reasonable time period.

By the way, have you heard from ProShares on the mechanics of how they do the double short?

2008 Jul 16 09:32 AM

[dukeb:]

XLF chart was a chuckle....too bad you didn't have a vertically flipped answer key below it!

2008 Jul 16 09:44 AM

[mr.verymuch:]

Thanks, Dave.

Bush always sounds like he is reading a speech that someone else was supposed to deliver. I have never heard anyone I believed less. Does the guy really have any convictions of his own? Why does he bother?

We have had some foolish governments over the years, but this one is populated with a rare breed of incompetents. God help us

2008 Jul 16 09:50 AM

[User 30121:]

You PLUNKED them today Jim (Bunning)! Sonofabitch, how I HATED to see him pitch against my beloved YANKEES!

Listen folks, just BUY GOLD AND SILVER, take PHYSICAL POSSESSION of those assets, and sit tight and wait. You will be in the catbird seat...like me! May God bless us all!

2008 Jul 16 04:07 PM

[Dr. Duru:]

Gotta love Bunning...!

2008 Jul 17 01:14 AM