Inflation: Tears in Your Coffee

By Brad Zigler

This morning's inflation numbers have me trying to reconcile the relative cheapness of my toast with the ever-rising price of my java.

Consumer prices jumped in June by the largest amount in nearly three decades, according to a report from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Energy and food prices (surprise! surprise!) led the parade of price hikes.

On a seasonally adjusted basis, the Consumer Price Index jumped 1.1% in June, after rising 0.6% in May. In June, energy prices surged 6.6%, according to the government report, while food costs ticked up 1%. Energy costs, say the Feds, are growing at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 53.6%, and food prices are advancing at an 8.5% clip.

A little of that wholesale inflation we fretted about back in June ("PPI: The Numbers Behind The Numbers") is trickling into the retail sector. On Tuesday, the BLS reported that wholesale prices climbed 1.8% in June.

Our Breakfast Index keeps track of the link between wholesale and retail food costs by measuring the changes in a basket of eight widely consumed breakfast commodities. In June, the index snapped a two-month decline to rise at a compound annual rate of 56%.

At the top of the list were increases in the price of cocoa and coffee. There's a caffeine alert of the highest order, warning of yet more expensive coffee to come and, now that Starbucks (NasdaqGS: SBUX) is shuttering stores, fewer places to get it.

Wheat was the only commodity to have lost ground in the three-month period ending June 30. You might want to keep your toast dry, though; the cost of butter's ticking up at a 34.1% annual rate.

Of course, dry toast can better sop up the tears you'll shed when you note that prices for orange juice, sugar, milk and bacon are also rising at double-digit rates.

See?  Even inflation has its compensations.

June Breakfast Index

 

Commodity	Contract Month	31-March-08 Price	30-June-08 Price	3-Month  Change (%)	Annualized Change (%)
Cocoa	July ‘08	$2,349/tonne	$3,245/tonne	39.3	290.2
Coffee	July ‘08	129.95 ¢/lb	150.90 ¢/lb	16.1	87.3
Butter, AA	July ‘08	141.50 ¢/lb	151.75 ¢/lb	7.2	34.1
Orange Juice	September ‘08	115.90 ¢/lb	122.60 ¢/lb	6.0	27.9
Sugar #11	October ‘08	12.52 ¢ /lb	13.10 ¢/lb	4.6	13.1
Milk, Class III	July ‘08	$17.84/cwt	$18.50/cwt	3.7	16.5
Pork Bellies (Bacon)	July ‘08	69.800 ¢/lb	71.800 ¢/lb	2.9	12.6
Wheat	September ‘08	$9.4600/bu	$8.5875/bu	-9.2	-33.4
Average				8.8	56.0

 

 

 

Comments

[ironist15:]

Looks like you reversed the March and June price headings. Good post though.

2008 Jul 17 09:29 AM

[Managing Ed...:]

Yup. The dates at the top need to be switched.

How'd THAT happen? Probably the watered-down, inflation-fighting coffee in the proof/editing stage.

Thanks for the catch. It'll get fixed.

2008 Jul 17 09:46 AM

[Managing Ed...:]

The table's been corrected ...

2008 Jul 23 12:53 AM