In a wild week of economic and stock market action, "good" wins out over "bad" and "ugly" as major U.S. stock indexes close with comfortable gains:
For the week:
Dow Jones Industrial Average (DIA) +1.7%
S&P 500 (SPY) +2.2%
Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) +1.9%
Russell 2000 (IWM) +3.9%
The Good:
Mario Draghi and the European Central Bank step up with the "Draghi Put" for Spain and Italy
August Motor Vehicle Sales: 14.5M, up from 14.1M and beating forecast
August ADP Employment: 201,000, up from 173,000
Weekly Unemployment: 365,000, down from 377,000
August ISM Non Manufacturing: 53.7, up from 52.6
July German and British Industrial Production advance
Italian and Spanish bond yields fall sharply
Technical indicators point to strong bull market action and more potential upside ahead as S&P 500 reaches January, 2008, highs and Dow Jones Industrial Average returns to December, 2007, levels.
The Bad:
August ISM declines to 49.6, missing expectations, third monthly report below 50
July Construction Spending slips -0.9% compared to previous +0.4% and misses expectations
Major U.S. stock indexes approach overbought levels and are subject to short term correction.
The Ugly:
August Non Farm Payrolls slip to 96,000 from previous 141,000 and widely miss expectations. Unemployment rate falls to 8.1% from 8.3% but only because more than 368,000 people gave up looking for work. Today's percentage of workers employed or looking for work is the lowest in more than 30 years (September, 1981)
Long term unemployed stand at 5 million, 40% of the unemployed, jobless for 27 weeks or more. BLS Report
Next Week's Good, Bad, Ugly Watch:
Wednesday: German Constitutional Court Ruling on European Stability Mechanism
Thursday: Weekly Jobless Claims, FOMC Meeting, Bernanke Press Conference,
Friday: August Retail Sales, August Industrial Production, September University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment
Wall Street Sector Selector's Bottom Line: The "good" is being driven by central bankers while the "bad" and "ugly" point to fundamental headwinds and a slowing global economy. As harvest season approaches, we might still be able to make hay while the sun shines but winter lies just ahead.
Disclosure: I am long IWM.
