Seeking Alpha
Macro, economy, Professor
Profile| Send Message|
( followers)  

The chart above shows the subprime share of mortgage originations from 2001 to 2007, using data from Harvard's "2008 State of the Nation's Housing" study, available here.

1. From 2004-2006 the subprime share of mortgage originations was around 20%, almost triple the 7-8% share from 2001-2003. What a rise!

2. By the end of fourth quarter 2007, the subprime share dropped to only 3.1%, lower even than the 7-8% average during the 2001-2003 period. What a fall!

3. That 20% subprime mortgage share from 2004-2006 was obviously the cause of the subprime crisis. Although that huge amount of subprime mortgage activity from 2004-2006 might create problems for a few more years, it's also the case that a significant correction in subprime lending has taken place - that market has almost completely dried up. Looking forward, this correction suggests a future mortgage and housing market that will be much better than today's.

Source: The Rise and Fall of the Subprime Mortgage