Factoring in last week’s stock market rebound, I have put together a table of global stock markets’ performances over various measurement periods and in both local currency and U.S. dollar terms. The numbers speak for themselves and can be summarized in a single sentence: Despite the variation in the economic impact of the credit crunch; the stock markets have mostly been dancing to the same tune.
The Wall Street “leash effect” remained paramount and stock market (as opposed to economic) decoupling nothing more than a myth.
As a result of the slide of the U.S. dollar over the different measurement periods, the performance of those stock markets where the local currency strengthened against the greenback (pretty much all markets) obviously look better once expressed in US dollar terms (see bottom table).
We are possibly in the midst of a tradable rally, but I do not know (and neither does anyone else) whether last week marked a major bear market low. In the words of David Fuller (Fullermoney):
The markets will provide the answers in their own good time.
Click on the image below for a larger table.
Click on the image below for a larger table
